PRE MARKET

The big story will be the G-20 meetings and all the trade stuff. We’ll know a lot more over the weekend.

FINANCIALS gap up this morning as EVERYONE beats the fake stress tests. This enables these financials to raise dividends and buy back more stock.

GOLD still in bullish pullback. As we stated a few days ago, we think the move out of range was real.

Another strong day for SEMIS on crappy numbers out of MU. Go figure. The SOX back above the 50 day.

BITCOIN and COINS hit hard yesterday but that was just a little climactic move that needed to pull back.

BA…still too much uncertainty for our tastes and now it looks like more time to get the planes flying again.

Indices look fine and constructive off this pullback but the G-20 meeting will matter. We suspect both parties know they need some kind of a win. Our best guess is a truce for now with no new taxes with the rhetoric toned down…but just a guess.

Last night’s debate…a socialist’s paradise. We will write about our thoughts over the weekend.

 

PRE MARKET

We can talk markets but in the short-term, it is all about the trade deal as Trump meets XI. Both seem stuck on their side.

From yesterday:

We continue to believe the move in gold is real but our pullback thought continues.

SEMIS real strong yesterday. MU news was catalyst. MU earnings stunk.

Did UTILITIES and REITS top for now yesterday? Decent chance…especially REITS.

PAYX…check out what it did.

A chance that INSURANCE, MANAGED CARE, CONSUMER STAPLES hit a wall yesterday as all had near-term rolling over.

Poor action on most HEALTHCARE.

BA was down $20 earlier as worry about latest fix. As we write this, only down $9. BA stock had been repairing damage. Will watch closely how this finishes today.

 

 

 

PRE MARKET

Tough day yesterday. Futures flat and then Mnuchin said some bs on China…same bs he has said a dozen times…but now the prez doing interview and is all over the map. Futures coming in. I am speechless. Go to my twitter feed and you will see all my sarcasm. Very tough to watch.

Since you’re asking:

FEDHEADS basically guaranteed a rate cut yesterday. Next fed meeting the end of July.

BYND looks like it hit some sort of low yesterday…after hitting a climactic high. May have set a range. Valuation remains a joke.

Funny…everyone loves bitcoin again. I wonder why.

Mentioned early yesterday…felt like GLD was petering out. Gold stocks were down while GOLD was up. Expect some stalling/moderation.

HOUSING stocks broke 50 day yesterday. Volume heavy. LEN mentioned tariffs adding cost of house by about $500…tariffs are marvelous.

The downside of ridiculously valued, money losing IPOs is showing itself. Pick your poison and pick your spots.

PRE MARKET

ABBV buying AGN.

GOLD again with the little gap up. As we stated, we think the move is real but wait for pullbacks…which have not happened yet.

Seeing a bunch of distribution in growth names as a few breaking the 50 day and a few bigger leaders like SHOP, TTD hitting near term highs.

SMALL CAPS and TRANSPORTS continue to under-perform as another bad day yesterday with the DOW flat.

YIELDS continue lower. Not sure GOLD to the upside and yields ripping to the downside a good thing but so far, big cap indices no problems.

SCHW. ETFC, AMTD…did you see them yesterday? Already bearish but now the great socialist wants to tax trades a whopping 0.5%. Think what that would do to the industry and to investors.

 

PRE MARKET STUFF

Futures flattish.

Divergence city. Doesn’t mean markets are in trouble but:

While the S&P hits highs…nothing else does. The DOW, NASDAQ, NDX are a little behind but the TRANSPORTS, THE SMALL CAPS, THE MID CAPS, FOREIGN MARKETS and a bunch of other stuff not even close. This is something to watch.

GOLD/GOLD STOCKS look great on a daily and weekly. Pullbacks preferable but this looks more real than the many aborted moves it has had in the past.

“EASY MONEY IS BACK”

We like Barrons. But…that was the title cover this weekend of their financial magazine. Our message to Barrons…really? When did the easy money ever leave? The definition of easy money is the following…recently…

Negative Bond Yields through…
30 yrs: Switzerland
15 yrs: Germany, Netherlands
10 yrs: Japan, Denmark, Austria, Finland, Sweden
9 yrs: France, Belgium
8 yrs: Slovakia
7 yrs: Ireland, Slovenia
6 yrs: Spain
5 yrs: Portugal
3 yrs: Malta, Bulgaria
1 yr: Italy

$13 trillion of bonds around the globe are negative. Depending on which abacus you use, $20 trillion has been printed around the globe. Australia and India just lowered again. China is infusing trillions even though they say GDP is in the 6.5% range. The ECB telegraphed lower rates and more money printing even though rates are negative and have already printed a ton. The Bank of Japan owns over 50% of their ETFs and over 4% of their whole market. Our brave central bank changes stance every time markets take a hit and tops out at a whopping 2.5% fed funds. Sorry…the easy money never went away. And this is not just easy money. Easy money used to be a quarter point here and there.