When you get past all the wild action, our themes have pretty much remained the same and that is:

February 9th was not only A low but was THE low that will not be taken out any time soon. And now with the strong action of the past week, we highly doubt
we break the recent low of March 2 any time soon.

The NASDAQ/NDX/SEMIS/GROWTH remain far and away the place to be as the “glamour” names continue to outperform everything. And now rumors of INTC for AVGO juicing the SEMIS even more this morning.

Just below that continues to be the FINANCIALS as the regionals have moved into new high ground and now some biggies are doing the same.

This past week, the Dow, S&P and now the small caps all jumped back above the important 50 day moving average.

The Transports are now back sitting on the 50 day.

New highs finally expanded. New lows contracted.

But not everything is rosy.

About 55% of all stocks are still in poor technical shape. That’s 55%.

Many countries continue to act terribly especially many European countries.

Interest rate sensitive stuff continues to act horrid…Housing. Utilities. Real estate.

Energy remains bearish though we think it bounces with the market here.

Shorter- term, markets are again overbought but that is a 1 on a scale of 1-10. Notwithstanding pullbacks, the NASDAQ/NDX/SEMIS and TECH continue to lead in a big way and would stay with that theme until things change.





3 things:

Big big big jobs number…no way around it. Our favorite # was the 806,000 that have jumped back into the work force. Futures up VERY STRONG. The NDX will open at a new high…amazingly. Let’s hope the gap holds. We have seen a few too many reverse. Yes…they can reverse markets on best of news.

North Korea blinks. Don’t believe the media bull crap that this was to deflect from other issues. We are going to give the president kudos for scaring the crap out of the Rocket Man. If there is anything a dictator enjoys the most…it is breathing. We really believe the sanctions and the tough talk did the trick. That said…the meeting has not happened yet and North Korea has shown they will talk one game and do the other. We shall keep fingers crossed this time is different.

As expected, Toys R Us is going to go bye bye. Toy stocks not having a good morning.





All you need to know is that SEMIS moving to highs…NASDAQ/NDX remain strong…growth completely ignoring any market weakness…REGIONAL BANKS (KRE) to new highs…bigger FINANCIALS not buckling. This all happening while so many other areas are in bad shape.

There is no chance of going back to the lows and no chance of a bear market IF this continues. Bear markets do not happen if FINANCIALS are holding up, SEMIS are in new high ground and growth is leading.

We heard  there was someone from a big firm calling for a 40% correction in the next couple of years. That’s not a correction. That is a blasting. Anything is possible but impossible unless these important areas break down. Ain’t happening yet.

And tariffs are getting watered down and will continue to be watered down.


The big news is that the Knicks are having another terrible year…ooops….that’s our sport’s report. The big news is that a guy named Gary is out at the White House. Futures are down but what’s 1% between friends.

Firstly, in a bull market, bad news is ignored. Right now, the bull market has been interrupted so perceived bad news is sold. Does not mean in time it doesn’t get going again but to repeat, we had 15 months without even a 3% correction. What you are seeing is normal as normal can be. Very often after big runs, markets will consolidate those gains for months, correcting in the teens before resolving itself to the upside. Of course, this can also resolve itself to the downside. Time will tell. How will we know? Simple…watch financials…watch AMZN…watch BA…watch NFLX….3 biggest leaders right now. Watch the NASDAQ and watch the NDX. Lastly, watch the SEMIS. These are the big leading areas. If they break, the market breaks. So far, nothing doing. If they break, do not think for a second that other areas will come to the rescue. If they break, party over. But again, nothing doing. In fact, these areas continue to show amazing strength.

Do realize that according to our rusty abacus, only about 37% of stocks are now in good shape with only a handful of sectors in uptrends. On top of that, there has been serious damage done to many foreign markets.

As far as Gary C, (not Gary K…I have hair) why is everyone so worried? He is just one person. So don’t sweat it. On top of that, in case you did not know, we have had tariffs before. The world did not end but tariffs do not work. Bush tried. Swing and a miss. Other presidents have tried. Didn’t change much. The worry about this administration is “overboard!” Will the Trumpster go overboard and do too much. The fact is every country is going to act in their own best interest, not ours. Already we are hearing about jeans, motorcycles and BOURBON? Bourbon? They are going after bourbon.  The fact is no country likes the perception they are being bullied, true or not. We are not so sure this administration understands this.  The hard liners on trade have won. Let’s hope they know what the hell they are doing.

Markets…every time markets come down, the internals go south. Bearish markets occur when more and more names and more and more areas break support/moving averages. We repeat. Watch those areas we previously mentioned. The market will not hold up if they go south.  Watch the recent lows of March 2. A break below and we are headed towards the low of February 9. Those levels are NASDAQ  7084, NDX 6645, S&P 2647, DOW 24217.