BITCOIN AND MARKET

-By Gary Kaltbaum- February 1, 2018-
-As one of the loudest, bearish voices on all things bitcoin, ripple and all that crap, we are very surprised but are very happy how quickly the air has come out of this ass-et. We simply stated we did not know how long the move would last or how far it would go…just do not be the last one in. Hopefully, you were not the last one in. Here were the signs we alerted to you that scared the #$#@ out of us:-
-“Geniuses paraded on tv to tell you to buy all the coins you can get your hands on…AFTER IT WAS UP A ZILLION-FOLD.-
-Calls for $100,000, even one call for $1,000,000. Not kidding.-
-Billionaires coming out of the woodwork even though they knew they could never sell what they owned.-
-Just like 1999, companies started changing their names, dropping their cigar, juice and iced tea businesses to enter into the crypto-currency business. Those stocks would skyrocket in seconds. All are now in the midst of the round trip.-
-Almost 1500 coins were put into circulation. Talk about dilution!-
-At parties, college students talking about how they tripled their money and expect to make tens of millions.-
-Futures exchanges accepting trades…AFTER IT WAS UP A ZILLION-FOLD.-
-RETAILERS accepting bitcoin….NOT ANY MORE!-
-Newsletters popping up all over the place AFTER IT WAS UP A ZILLION-FOLD. Yup…all of a sudden, crypto-currency geniuses running amok.-
-So why are we happy? If we have already seen the top, it means the masses never had a chance to be screwed. For sure, many have been left holding the bag that bought into the crazy but we do not think it hit big-time mainstream. When the market broke in 2000, many, many many were sitting with stocks (and refused to sell) that went down 50-100%. The sad news is a lot of these crypto-businesses have been shown to be scams and quite a few have been hacked.-
-So we repeat…we have no clue what exact path these coins continue to take. (Maybe it goes back up again!) We just think when all is said and done, a lot of this is going back where it came from. Many of those “questionable” stocks already have. Many coins have. Time will tell if they get them all.-
-As far as the market, any idea of a deeper correction was stopped dead in its tracks this morning at 26,000 Dow when the big bids came into the financials off of higher long rates. So far, the correction was a measly, and we mean measly 600 Dow points after an 8,000 point move. We also make note that Boeing (BA), the biggest mover in the past year…is again on the move accounting for another 160 Dow points in the past day. Everything counts. Now we watch the 26,000 level more closely. Amazon, Google, Apple after the close.-

MIDDAY STUFF

It’s early but 26,000 Dow kicked the bears in the teeth. Amazing if it ends up just a 600 point correction for now. Was hoping for 5%-plus just to clean out but aint happening yet. Financials led market up on higher long rates. See you at the close. Big earnings after.

PRE MARKET

We think we are continuing to see a change in market conditions. After all, we have not seen anything in the way of pullbacks…combined with a gigantic does of bullish sentiment. We have also noticed on the up days, the a/d has not been keeping up. Would also add the DOW is 1200 points above the 50 day average.

We need to add Europe looks like it is topping. The DAX is breaking below the 50 day with the FTSE breaking below it a couple of days ago.

We are not calling for the end of the world but do think things are changing. We also know we are in the midst of earnings season where the jello will be moving on the plate.

Earnings of note:

DOWNSIDE movers: PYPL, BABA, RL, TSCO, UPS. MSFT only down a wee bit.

UPSIDE movers: VRTX, RACE, MA, EBAY. FB has been all over the map. Down 9 in ah but then said better things on call. This morning was up almost $7 but currently up $1.50.

Futures having a rough go of it. Remember, markets are stretched and extended as far as we have seen in a while combined with massive bullishness. Stay tuned. Remember, we have not had a 5% drop in a very long time. 5% drops are as normal as the Knicks having another losing season. It may be time…and if it occurs, it is not a big deal in the scheme of things…but have to be watching for something worse.

After the close, AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL. In other words, the QQQ will be all over the map. The question is whether AMZN and GOOGL are ahead of themselves. AAPL has been range-bound recently with a little bias to the downside.