More of the same this morning. DOW futures up 80…S&P only about 3 and NDX futures hardly up. NDX futures were down decently about an hour ago but have since bounced.
Reading many saying these divergences augur trouble to come. They could be right but we are not there yet. We would rather just stay in tune with what is and what isn’t. If what is joins in the downside, then we can talk. But so far, even with yesterday’s DOW reversal, FINANCIALS, TRANSPORTS, RETAIL, HOUSING-related still very strong off the tax bill…
BUT…them are some ugly patterns in big name growth/tech/semis and all that stuff. Keep in mind what we told you about the SEMIS. Look at June 9th for a possible precedent. Big ugly down day followed by 3 months of range-bound before breaking out again. Nov 29 down day looks about the same. We are not saying the same thing happens. We could have seen the final top. Just outlining possibilities. We always adhere with what is in front of us.
We outlined for you this morning to watch for a ‘sell the news” day. This was not just selling. Leading growth/tech/internet/semis and all that stuff was mauled. To be clear, anything is possible but this does not look like ordinary selling or an ordinary pullback in these areas. To our eyes, this selling looks consequential for these areas. Due to the fact many have had long runs, we would be doubly careful.
On top of that, a frothed up open in the DOW/S&P was sold and closed at the lows with the S&P down on the day. Tax reform beneficiaries were still up nicely but also came in a decent amount of the way. Our “changing of the guard” theme remains in force and for the growth/tech/internet/semis, we would be more than cautious.
It’s up nicely…and my President refuses to shut up about investigations that may put himself and people of his administration in harm’s way…
As we write this, DOW futures are up over 200 off of the Senate bill. It is quite interesting to read that the average effective corporate tax rate is already at 22%. So why would a small drop be such a good thing for markets? Of course, futures can change overnight.
Friday was influenced by a jackass report from ABC. In seconds, markets fell through the floor but when all was said and done, a 350 point Dow drop turned into a 40 point drop. We never like calling for anyone’s firing unless they are politicians or my favorite sport’s team coach…but this Ross guy is a professional at trying to rip one side of the aisle. After the Colorado theater tragedy, he had no problem linking the murderer to the Tea Party without doing any legwork. We certainly hope he gets his act together as he has done some great reporting in the past.
At this point, we just want to report the news.
Last week, the DOW was up 673 points…about 2.5%. The S&P was up about 1.5%. But to go along with our “changing of the guard” thoughts, both the TRANSPORTS and FINANCIALS were up over 5% but the SOX was down 5%. On top of that, the NASDAQ and NDX were both down. We also make note that a bunch of CHINESE growth ADRs have rolled over as well as some growth names here in the US.
We also needed to mention the ugly patterns in both the GERMAN DAX and the LONDON FTSE. We suspect the FTSE has some BREXIT issues but not sure on the DAX. The good news is we are into December where bad patterns can turn up but as of this second, something to watch.
CHINA is on a normal pullback but the rigged JAPAN market is just sitting after a big move up.
Lastly, as we have said recently, watch the OILS. Looks like they are trying to turn up off of strengthening oil prices.
Before more comment, we want to see what happens tomorrow and whether we get a “sell the news!”
Lastly, memo to the Trump administration! Please please please please yell and scream because the tweets are now going to put the President in harm’s way. For some unknown reason, he thinks he is playing some sort of game but we have news for him…the other side is not playing games. Tweet about markets. Tweet about football. Tweet about media. Tweet about anything your heart’s desire. Just stop tweeting about an investigation that potentially has you or others in your administration in the cross hairs.
By Gary Kaltbaum
Those that listen to my thoughts and the radio show know we have a certain motto when it comes to Washington DC. It is quite simple: “WE HATE THEM ALL!” Of course, “hate” is a big word. We do not throw it around easily. But it is easy when it comes to all the miserable failures in Washington DC. How can you call these elected officials miserable failures? Before we answer, we suggest you take a moment of your time to read a few comedic quotes on the recently passed Senate bill from politicians and pundits.
America died tonight. Economic suicide adopted to feed the insatiable greed of donors, who have been refusing to dole out $ to GOP until they got their tax cuts. Voters fooled by propaganda and tribal hatred. Millenials: move away if you can. USA is over. We killed it. KURT EICHENWALD
Folks, this isnt about if rich become richer under tax bill. Ok, they are. Its about structural deficits becoming worse, and unfixable, with no economic strategy. We are headed to a spiral of interest payments on debt as % of budget in our kids lifetimes. Then there is no way out. KURT EICHENWALD
Historians will look back on Dec. 1, 2017 and conclude this was one of the great robberies in US history because Republicans are looting the Treasury. BERNIE SANDERS
Pathetic, disgraceful, immoral. How else can I describe the Republican tax plan? It must be stopped. BERNIE SANDERS
Mark my words: As soon as the Republican tax bill passes, Republicans are going to insist on cutting Medicare and Social Security to cut the deficit. We cannot let this disastrous bill pass. BERNIE SANDERS
The Senate passed a tax bill confirming that the Republican leaders’ primary goal is to enrich the country’s elite at the expense of everybody else, including future generations who will end up bearing the cost. NEW YORK TIMES
The Republican Party is the enemy of the American people. The Senate just passed the Trump Tax Increase, 1:50am, enriching the 1% & concentrating wealth in the hands of the few. Capitalism & Fascism. The coup is underway. Make no mistake about it. EVERYONE OFF THE BENCH! 11/6/18! MICHAEL MOORE
A thread on lies, damned lies, voodoo economics and cowardice: from the beginning, the core claim of the Trump administration has been that its tax cuts would raise growth so much that they would pay for themselves. It claimed to have analysis to that effect. PAUL KRUGMAN
In my long career in politics, I have not seen a more regressive piece of legislation, so devoid of a rationale, so ill-suited for the condition of the country, so removed from the reality of what the American people need. CHUCK SCHUMER
I was just handed a 479-page tax bill a few hours before the vote. One page literally has hand scribbled policy changes on it that can’t be read. This is Washington, D.C. at its worst. Montanans deserve so much better. JON TESTER
This is so bad. We have just gotten list of amendments to be included in bill NOT from our R colleagues, but from lobbyists downtown. None of us have seen this list, but lobbyists have it. Need I say more? Disgusting. And we probably will not even be given time to read them. CLAIRE McCASKILL
Make no mistake about it. Americans noticed. They’re disgusted, livid — and they *will* make Republicans pay for what they’ve done. The Ryan-Trump-McConnell corrupt agenda is on full display and will be stopped. Their days and majorities are numbered. NANCY PELOSI
Republicans’ Wrong Way tax agenda would ransack our investments in jobs, infrastructure, education and the future of our nation. It would explode the deficit and undermine our efforts to build an economy that works for everyone, not just the wealthy and well connected. NANCY PELOSI
The cowardly Republican thieves passed the unpopular, deficit-exploding, tax-raising, unreadable, lobbyist-hand-written scribble. And they blatantly admitted this was their first step toward further obliterating Medicare & Social Security. NANCY PELOSI
Make no mistake: After [the] Republicans’ tax plan blows a multitrillion-dollar hole in the deficit, they will sharpen their knives for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and vital job-creating investments for middle-class families across America. NANCY PELOSI
We should be subjecting our tax expenditures to harsh scrutiny, keeping those that promote growth and strengthen the middle class, and ending those special interest handouts that do nothing but increase the deficit. Republicans’ Wrong Way agenda only takes us further from restoring fairness to our tax code. NANCY PELOSI
Will raise the deficit by more than $1 trillion. The next generation will have to pay for it. Next November, remember that. DAVID CICILLINE
When GOP Senators vote for this Tax bill and pay for it with almost 2 trillion in new debt on the national credit card it means that everything everyone of them has ever said about spending was simply performance theater. Plus for millions of Americans it’s a tax HIKE. STEVE SCHMIDT
The United States Senate has gone completely off the rails. Lobbyists are writing the bill in secret and duly elected Democratic US Senators have no idea what’s in it. The corruption of what used to be the worlds greatest deliberative body is a tragedy. STEVE SCHMIDT
Americans will remember this day – and the Senate Republican majority will rue it – for the catastrophic scam foisted on the American people in the dead of night. It is a bait-and-switch, promising a simpler and fairer tax code, and actually making it more complex and unfair. RICHARD BLUMENTHAL
Senate Republicans passed their #TAXSCAMBILL, which will raise taxes on seniors and middle-income Americans and give a tax break to the wealthy. Why? Because Republican Senators put the interests of their billionaire donors ahead of the needs of the people they represent. DICK DURBIN
The #GOPTAXSCAM is a bad deal for the American people. It’ll raise taxes on seniors and middle-class families and put health care for millions at risk — all to give the wealthiest few a tax break. That’s not who we are as a nation or what our values should be. DICK DURBIN
So the reduction of corporate tax rates and the proposed reduction of tax brackets will create massive additional U.S. debt, which will actually slow the economy and is exactly what virtually every Republican has railed against for years. LA TIMES
Notice we quote a couple of people on the right but mostly quote those on the left.
Let me be clear. We like the corporate side of the bill. We very much dislike the personal side of the bill. Frankly, it is a fly on an elephant’s arse for the middle class Frankly, it has some very weird “unconservative” tax hikes in there. They say it simplifies but it doesn’t. Ask any accountant. They are thrilled. They say it does not help the rich. It does…but not all. Again, confusion. It depends on what state you live in, what industry you are in, how many kids you have, whether you are married, whether you are a Knicks fan…had to throw some comedy in. The fact is there is no simplification. But it does cut how much government will get over the next 10 years which does change the trajectory we have seen over past years.
BUT…back to the quotes. My biggest problem remains these politicians and pundits remain hypocritical liars. Remain failures of the highest order. Failures you ask?
They whine about deficits going up under this plan but did not say a freaking word about the $9 trillion of deficit spending under President Obama…not a freaking word. In fact, they all love deficits. They just love deficits when it increases their power as government grows ever larger. They hate deficits when it is supposedly has the economy keeping more of their money. They whine about the possibility of $1-1.5 of higher debt because of tax cuts in the next 10 years but say nothing about the $9-10 trillion of deficit spending over the next 10 years. Yes, DEFICIT SPENDING by these miserable failures will be going up 9-10x what would POSSIBLY occur under the tax cuts.
They whine about the bill “would ransack our investments in jobs, infrastructure, education and the future of our nation!” Just this year, federal spending is up $300 billion from last year to $4.1 trillion…and slated to be over $5 trillion in just a few years.
They whine about “we are headed to a spiral of interest payments on debt as % of budget in our kids lifetimes.” Really? Because of the past 3 Presidents, we are already up to over $400 billion being paid by taxpayers to just fund the interest payments created throughout the years culminating with the worst President ever with our tax dollars, Barack Obama…who gets the championship belt on debt and deficits…AND BY FAR. But not a freaking word about him.
They whine about the “lobbyists” involved. (THEY ARE CORRECT) But the kingdom of the lobbyists are brought to you by both parties. Which brings us to the line: DON’T PISS DOWN OUR BACKS AND TELL US IT’S RAINING.”
They whine about the rich getting benefits…but they take billions from those same people they complain about to fund their never-ending re-elections.
Socialist Bernie Sanders (not independent) says “this was one of the great robberies in US history!” I will just retort that the greatest robbery in history is socialism…and leave it at that. And to Socialist Bernie, the second greatest robbery of the middle and lower income class, in history is what the central bank, your central bank did over the past 8 years by screwing those same people out of earning any money on their riskless income investments. And the third biggest screwing brought to you by our fabulous government is the lottery marketed as a way to riches when there are bigger odds of being hit by lightning 100 times more than winning any kind of important money.
They whine that it was done in secret with all kinds of lies. Really! One word: OBAMACARE. Remember that crap done in secret? One video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G790p0LcgbI
You know…I can go on and on. I could list 1,000 more quotes. I could provide you with a ton of more facts but to be brief, all these failures have been a party to:
Over $20 trillion of debt that can never possibly be ever paid back.
Yearly deficits that will explode again up to $1 trillion/year regardless of this deal.
Central bank keeping rates at 0% screwing lower income and middle class out of hundreds of billions, if not trillions of riskless income.
Government spending that was below $1.8 trillion the last year of Clinton and now at over $4 trillion…and slated to go above $5 trillion in the next few years.
Over $400 billion each year going down the toilet just to pay the interest on the debt THEY created. Let me repeat…over $400 billion/year that THEY created yet they complain about $100 billion of supposed tax cut deficits over the next decade each year. Do you know what $5 trillion could buy over the next 10 years if they never created all that debt? Every freaking road, every freaking bridge, every freaking everything.
A coming social security, medicare, medicaid, unfunded pension and student loan debacle…all government run.
And all this with rates rigged and manipulated down to 0% for the past 8 years in order to make things look better. What do you think happens when interest rates finally shoot the middle finger at these central bankers and skyrockets? What? You don’t think that will eventually happen?
So…message to both the right and the left who kiss the arse of their favorite party. You had better start looking at the reality. Reality is numbers. You cannot make them up. But you can make up opinion. Both parties are culpable. Both parties are hypocrites but there is a special place in my heart for the Socialist party. (They stopped being moderate Democrats ages ago!) All they care about is more of your money. More rules, more regulations, more mandates, more fees, more fines, more taxes, more government control over your lives while most have never run a business, risked their capital, worked 16 hour days, met payroll, cooked a burger, sold a glass of lemonade…but most have lived off the same people they continue to abuse day after day, that being an unwary American public who continue to get the short end of the stick from DC. I believe in the hard working people of this great country. I have lost all hope from those out of DC.
Will talk much more about yesterday’s action as well as the whole week over the weekend but how about:
Transports and Financials up 7% in 5 days before a small late pullback. These areas major beneficiaries of the tax plan. I will also have a wrap up of other areas this weekend.
Futures down but off lows this morning. Europe is weak…but our market doesn’t care this second. NDX futures worse than S&P. As we have stated, semis/tech/internet have lost some of the ooomph as the market had a vicious rotation. The DOW is up 714 points this week. The NASDAQ is down 15 points. The SOX is down more than 5%…
And we do believe the tax bill gets passed in the Senate. We are fans of the corporate bill but have issues with the personal side.