Sorry about pre-market…still no phones or internet at office. Hotspot was spotty. Still nothing at the house. Yummy. I know they are working hard around Florida to get things up so no complaining.
As I write this:
THE SEMIS (SOX) looks poised to break out of a 14 week trading range. The SOX topped on the vicious June 9th drop after becoming extended and has taken this much time to work through the supply. If it can move out, it will go a long way in keeping the market moving forward as it has been the leading group for quite a while. There are already a few names into new high ground and some very close.
Otherwise, mostly quiet but very constructive action in the indices this week. FINANCIALS bumped back into trading range…but still no leadership there.
COMMODITIES in pullback mode as dollar strengthened a bit past couple of days. A few names broke back below the 50 day.
More tonight on radio and right here.
No power at home. No phones or internet at offices. Yippeee! But we are grateful as we know so many have it so much worse…and we are thinking of them. We hear over 25% of the homes in Key West have been lost. Wow!
Another good day yesterday as new highs pick up, the tone gets better and S&P into new highs. Yes…we are overbought but no biggie.
Best areas remain Chinese ADRs, technology, internet, medical, drugs/biotech. See a couple of housing names breaking out. Seeing a few new highs in semiconductor-land. Even energy/oil & gas with better tone off of the hurricanes…but still no grand leadership there.
Go visit my twitter…@GaryKaltbaum to see how much tree damage was at our house. I posted a bunch of pictures and video. It was a miracle that all the trees feel away from our house.
Hopefully we will be back to full sooner rather than later.
The direct inverse correlation with the financials and interest rates continues…that’s long end interest rates. As the 10 year yield was whacked down to 2%, financials headed lower with with the regionals bearing the brunt. All it took was rates to back up for 2 days and we get a 2 day romp back up in the financials. The theory being as long rates go up, margins expand. Margins expand, profits expand. Profits expand, stock prices go up.
Look how GS (which still lags) was breaking another area of support badly…in 2 days, back into the high end of resistance. The KRE (regionals) which still acts poorly, undercuts a multi-month low and reverses back above. The best looking name remains Citi (C) as it has had the best relative strength since early June…but only just getting back above 50 day average today. Really no leadership yet in this group.
Power being restored. I am one of 4 houses in community still without but hopefully soon. Go to my twitter feed to check out amazing pictures at my house. A bunch of big trees down but amazingly, went down away from the house instead of on the house.
Great day in the market yesterday. Last week, major indices held support. Now they get a chance to move out of range. S&P has already edged out.
I received dozens of emails claiming yesterday’s action could not happen with so much crap happening here and around the globe. Well…dose of reality….is that reality is price…not what anyone thinks.
I will have big update tonight from wherever I am. Yesterday’s action could be the start of another leg up…but let’s get confirmation.
Well…made it through 100 mph winds last night…and a ton of rain. Not so sure how well rest of Florida did. Keeping fingers crossed. You can go to my twitter feed and check out some of the video I took.
And we must not ever forget what day this is…16 years ago today…amazingly it has been 16 years. I still remember where I was, what I said, where I walked, what I thought and that whole day when this country was attacked. I guess the cliche’ is never forget…but it is not just a cliche’ with what happened on 9/11/2001. Our prayers remain with all affected.
We told you yesterday market was right at the place where it has been defended for weeks…and simply put we get a nice gap to the upside. Let’s see if it holds or if something can build off of it.
Offices today are at a hotel near Disney as all buildings in downtown Orlando still closed.
And as of now, we will be able to do radio today.
Hey…how’s your day? As I write this from my hotel room near Disney at 830 pm et, we are being battered with gusts about 75 mph…and feel lucky. Talked to my bestest of friends in SE Florida today…hit with gusts over 100. One had two big trees on his roof…and that’s for starters. Watched SW Florida…yikes! I must tell you I have been through a lot of these but not sure as I watched Fox News and the magnificent Shepherd Smith today have I ever seen a storm cover the whole state. One can correct me if I am wrong but don’t think we have seen one this big. The family is quite happy we made the decision to go to a big resort hotel as we found out we lost power at home. And my dogs Cosmo and Winston are thrilled as there must be 200 dogs in the hotel. The drive to the hotel felt like the end of the world as I think I could count on both hands how many cars were on I-4 as we made the drive to the hotel.
We have now been quarantined in our rooms until 8 am. There is a lot of glass windows in the lobby as well as the roof. Just sending big wishes and prayers to all affected here in Florida and of course those affected by Harvey. I suspect we will wake up tomorrow to lots of damage. Kudos to Governor Scott as he showed great leadership this whole week. Many were already planning for the hurricane last weekend.
As far as markets, just letting you know this is exactly where markets have been holding the past few weeks. Tease the downside and hold. Tease the downside and hold. I would not be surprised if we rally off of it but am suspect to how much we can rally when financials are acting so poorly and internals have been on the poor side. But again, if they can’t send em down when they are weak…
As far as financials, it is important to note the group is one of the two most important groups we follow, the other being semiconductors. Both are great harbingers of things to come. I am not sure I have ever seen a market hold up when both are in bad shape. The SEMIS are still hanging in there but must be watched as they are not trading as well as they did a couple of months back.
Noticing a few things showing up on the radar.
Drug stocks…yes, some of those stodgy drug stocks are now breaking out, joining the recent move in BIOTECH. I don’t think they can go much as growth rates are basically nil.
Utilities…a bunch into new highs with others about ready. Look no further than a 2% 10 year for why.
Gold and gold stocks continue to shape up but now need some pulling back or some rest.
The Giants game about to start. Looking out the window seeing a big palm looking ready to keel over. Stay well! Stay safe! And as I have been saying every day at the end of my radio show since the Columbine incident…MAKE SURE YOU HUG YOUR CHILDREN! Has even more meaning this weekend!