PRE MARKET

All quiet this morning.

Prayers to Puerto Rico. Been there about a dozen times. Cannot imagine what 150 mph winds will do. Prayers also out to those affected by earthquake in Mexico. 7.1 is a biggie.

Toys R Us bankruptcy… Bad service, bad pricing, bad website combined with massive debt…will do the trick. This was a must as suppliers would not have supplied. 40% of business is at holiday time. Expect fewer stores. Expect combining Babys R Us into one store.

Trump speech!…I just love when pundits who worked in the Obama, Bush and Clinton administration criticize Trump for his rhetoric when we are here because of Obama, Bush and Clinton. Horrible deal by Clinton and nothing done by Bush and Obama. The past 3 presidents are at fault for letting North Korea obtain their arsenal…which has now fallen into Trump’s lap…not to mention the Iran giveaway. I do not call it the Iran deal because a deal means both sides got something. Hopefully, the Trump administration gets things right on this. Keeping fingers crossed.

FDX small gap to downside, BBBY big gap…wow…used to be a big leader, ADBE, WDC, GIS also gapping down.

PRE MARKET

We have power. Never thought I would appreciate lights and air conditioning so much. I want to thank Duke Energy for working their arses off as well as the contractors who came from other states to assist. What a massive job they have had. I saw a few people complain. How the hell do you complain when millions were out of power and there is just so many who can restore it? On top of that, many of the workers were also affected by the hurricanes. Unreal.

Futures up. Strong day yesterday

led by financials and semis. What can be wrong with that? Let me just say there remains a lot of doubt on the markets…which is kinda sorta amazing. Will have a complete report tonight as I am back to full strength.

Lastly, fed meeting this week. I love the fact that markets hardly follow any more. But gonna get interesting if central banks start selling their trillions of assets they have bought to raise asset prices. They had better do it slowly.

IN ONE REPORT, THE REASON I CANNOT TRUST MAINSTREAM MEDIA!

Under President Obama, depending on which abacus you use, about $8 trillion of new debt was foisted upon an unwary public. Some say it is closer to $9 trillion. Simply put, President Obama gets the championship belt on debt. We are now to the point where last year, total interest on everything paid by taxpayers was over $450 BILLION because of all the debt created as well as all the programs created. Funny, I don’t remember hearing one person in the mainstream media report on this.  But there is a new sheriff in town so guess what is reported? I would like to say I was making this up but I am not. To repeat, after not reporting the massive build-up of debt under President Obama and with the media blacking out any news of the debt as well as the ultimate screwing of the tax payer, this is what gets reported today. All of a sudden, the tax payer matters. Just click on the picture!

 

PRE MARKET NOTES

Still no power at the Kaltbaum abode…but not complaining…as long as the Giants win tonight. ETA for power was supposed to be last night, maybe today…maybe tomorrow. I know Duke Energy people are working their asses off so will just deal with it. We are the lucky ones as sooo many have lost their homes.

Futures up a wee bit.

Forgot to mention machinery, rails and “stuff” like that on the move. We are 100% sure this is hurricane reconstruction-related and remains to be seen wether the moves last. Keep that in mind.

Again, the big story last week was the move in the SEMICONDUCTORS (SOX) which are so important to the market. Seeing a few upgrades and target raises in the group this morning. It always puzzles  me when an analyst misses a 100% move…then upgrades the stock…AND THE MARKET ACTUALLY LISTENS TO THAT ANALYST. Welcome to an easy money market. There is very little chance of market trouble if the SEMIS are moving out. Just scan the SOX going back the past 20 years and you will see what I am talking about. Very rare they have NOT led market.

WEEKEND NOTES

All we really have to do is report to you the news:

In spite of North Korea, in spite of a couple of very costly hurricanes, in spite of an impotent DC (except for their spending), major indices had one of those mystery gaps on Monday and just kept going. Remember, IT’S NOT THE NEWS. IT’S HOW THE MARKET REACTS TO THE NEWS. When “supposed” bad news is not only not sold but bought up, that’s all you really need to know.

The DOW into new high ground.

The S&P right there.

The NYSE in new high ground.

The NASDAQ is close. In fact, setting up to move out. Needs 6460.

The NDX also close needing 6010.

Leading growth names have either moved out or are setting up again to move out.

The ALL-IMPORTANT SEMICONDUCTORS (SOX)  is just a stone’s throw away from the June 9 high with a few names already moving out.

EMERGING MARKETS at new highs.

The lagging areas like TRANSPORTS and FINANCIALS even rallied but certainly not leading.

Remember, we still have the easiest monetary policy in the history of the world. Trillions printed, negative rates, 0% rates and notice, central banks talk a tough game but keep on keeping on.  They will never be able to normalize and they know it.

AUNT MARY AND UNCLE BOB!

—-   “AUNT MARY AND UNCLE BOB!”—-
—-By Gary Kaltbaum- September 15, 2017—-
—-This email is being sent to the President!—- 
—–Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob did not have a lot of money. They were living paycheck to paycheck, just getting by. But Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob were efficient with their lives and their savings. Whatever they could save, they did. They both worked long hours trying to make a good life for themselves and their family. But Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob were tired of their jobs. They believed there was a better calling for them. They searched and searched and finally found a franchised business that they thought they would excel at. The problem was they did not have enough money to buy a franchise. But they met with the owners. They pleaded with the owners over a 9 month period. Talks were long and arduous with Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob letting them know how hard they would work to be successful and that they would be a great addition to their organization. After much back and forth, the owners agreed to bring them on and lend them the money to start their first franchise.——-
——–Sun up to sun down, Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob put in the time. Initially, Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob did not do that well but did show improvement. They had no problem working the 16 hour days. They would do anything to be successful and become independently wealthy. After a year of just getting by, things started to click. Business started to flourish. All the hard work, the sweat, the toil, the risk capital, the sleepless nights started to pay off. Business started to get going. Because the business got going, they hired two people. Those two people now had a decent paycheck with a business that was on the upswing. But it did not stop there. The owners of the company recognized their success and offered to give Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob another franchise. They jumped at the chance. Things went well. Things went so well that they hired 5 more people with one of those people coming off of welfare because of the hiring. A couple of their originals went from hourly pay to salaried pay. And then there were 3 franchises. And then 4. But something happened. They now had 25 employees, some salaried and still some hourly. Government then decided to mandate a certain number Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob must pay…which was more than they were paying. But they relented. They fired no one. But then came a new healthcare program, one where Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob’s costs and taxes went up markedly. They could not believe their expenses went up so much because of government dictate without any commensurate productivity gains. What to do? Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob loved their employees. In fact, they were not called employees. They were called partners. They were family. When one partner had an auto accident and was out of work for 6 weeks, what did Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob do? They paid the person anyhow and made sure that person’s children were taken care of.——–
———On top of this, Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob are philanthropic, giving a nice chunk of change to children’s charities every year. Because of this, many at-risk children have a better chance. Because they have a better chance, they are less apt to fall prey to all the negatives that are out there. Because these children made something of themselves, society is much better off.——
——–Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob also buy products for their business. Because they buy more and more products, those businesses that sell the products are doing better. Because those businesses are selling more product and are growing their business, they are hiring more people. Because they are hiring more people, those people are now getting paychecks. Those people who are being paid can now afford things they could not afford before. Those people than use that money to buy food or clothes, go to the movies, maybe go to a theme park. Because those businesses are selling to those employees, those businesses are also growing. Because those businesses are growing…AND ON AND ON AND ON AND ON AND ON AND ON AND ON!——-
——-Look what Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob created. They created a virtuous business cycle. A cycle where everyone benefits, not only in their business but all the way down the line. They did it despite onerous government policy that confiscates more and more of their wealth on a yearly basis. Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob are the best of the best.——-
——But Mr. President, you just said you are not worried about them. You said they don’t need their taxes cut. You basically said they did not matter. You talked like the Pelosi, Schumer, Sanders, Warren’s of this world who demonize success and wealth on a daily basis. You have put yourself in bed with those who do do not have the foggiest idea what it takes to become a success. They are only capitalists with their money and life but socialists with everyone else’s money and life. Mr. President, you say Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob do not need their taxes cut. Au contraire Mr. President. The successful, hard working, philanthropic Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob are exactly the people who not only should have their taxes cut but DESERVE to have their taxes cut. ——–

PRE MARKET

Office back up…house still down…but being told by Sunday!

2 big hurricanes with massive losses, North Korea, another attempted London terror attack (did not fully detonate), inept Washington…and markets still cannot correct more than 2%. In fact, a few indices have gone topside.  When markets ignore supposed bad news and actually go up, it is the best of worlds. Until that changes, no arguing. Markets (price) is always reality.

The SOX looks ready to move out to new highs. This is very important as it has led the market. On top of that, better tone in worst areas does not hurt. On top of that, may be getting some clarity on corporate tax reform.

Futures have hardly budged. The Nikkei hardly budged even though a missile flew overhead.

A full set of reports for you this weekend. A lot of whining and complaining.