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Weekend Notes

By Gary Kaltbaum January 28,2017

Couldn’t help but start this missive with what is happening politically. We are not saying all this divisiveness will cause problems for the market. We are just saying it is something to watch. The markets have put a lot of trust in Trump and what he will do going forward. Trust by the market can be quite fleeting. Whether you are on one side or the other, we have not seen it this bad in ages…and doubt it gets better any time soon.

The big story was the move above range this past week. The “duh” statement is: as long as the move holds, market is in good stead. The fact is it is most important breakouts of range stick…so pay attention. As we wrote last week, most everything held support and then 20,000 was taken out while the S&P moved out. There is a lot more earnings to come out which will tell the tale…but what we have seen over the weekend looks like it is already coming into play.

We did want to make note of several things.

Continue to avoid retail…which is now, for lack of a better word, cracking! Many famous names are into new yearly low ground while major indices are at new yearly highs. We cannot tell you how bad that is for this group. We also needed to add that Sears Holdings is now acting like its on last legs. We do not see how this stays as an entity as things go from bad to worse. When you have a chance, check out these names
…Macys, Gap, Bed Bath Beyond, Kohls, Nordstroms, L Brands, Target. A big wow!

Continue to avoid interest-rate sensitive stuff as the bond market is still not cooperating.

Continue to avoid a slew of consumer staple areas and names as defensive issues just aren’t happening. This has been going on for quite a while.

Watch gold and silver. We have been bearish on them for many months. We will need to see some more cards come out of the deck but we are watching the set up for a possible another leg up.

Other than that, not much to complain about YET but as always, pay attention. We are way overdue for some bad behavior. Earnings have not been very good but so far, market is quite forgiving. In fact, some poor earnings have been bought up.

Monday’s Pre-Market Look: Stocks In The News Before The Open

MB Financial (MBFI) was downgraded to ‘Market Perform’ from ‘Outperform’ at KBW with a price target of $46.

NetApp (NTAP) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at Goldman Sachs with a 12-month target price of $43.

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ at Argus with a price target of $116.

Temper Sealy International (TPX) is indicated to open down 6% after it was downgraded to ‘Underperform’ from ‘Outperform’ at Raymond James.

Colgate-Palmolive (CL) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Citigroup.

American Express (AXP) was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Market Perform’ at KBQ with a price target of $91.

Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at Goldman Sachs with a 12-month target price of $62.

Regulus Therapeutics (RGLS unch) was downgraded to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ at Needham & Co.

Array BioPharma (ARRY) was downgraded to ‘Market Perform’ from ‘Outperform’ at Leerink Partners with a 12-month target price of $11.

Lowe’s (LOW) gained almost 1% in after-hours trading after it announced a new $5 billion share repurchase program.

Cannell Capital reported a 5% stake in Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW).

Arctic Cat (ACAT) was upgraded to ‘Market Perform’ from ‘Underperform’ at BMO Capital Markets with a price target of $18.50.

Source: FoxBusiness, BarChart, Bloomberg, Reuters,

Required Reading

We Don’t Have A Title For This

By Gary Kaltbaum- January 28,2017

In 2011, President Barack Obama put a 6 month ban on Iraqis coming to America but you wouldn’t know it because it was hardly reported. Protests? What protests? Calls of racism and intolerance? Nah!

Just a few weeks ago, President Obama terminated the 22-year-old policy that had allowed Cubans who arrived on United States soil without visas to remain in the country and gain legal residency. Protests? What protests? Calls of racism and intolerance? Nah!

Throughout Obama’s 8 years, it was quietly reported that he removed over 2 million people from the U.S. Protests? What protests? Calls of racism and intolerance? Nah!

We bring these examples up to show you the utter hypocrisy of the lemmings. We have no problem with anyone protesting. We have a problem with consistency. These protests are not about what President Trump is doing. These protests are about President Trump. (And don’t get us going on the national mainstream media again!) Of course, to be fair, to many on the other side, Trump can do no wrong even when wrong.

Donald Trump did not screw up our immigration system. That has been done through the years and by both parties. Many are guilty. But do not get us wrong. There is a lot we are not thrilled about with the new President. While we like strong borders and strong vetting, we are sitting here wondering how Trump and his advisors could not realize the problems they would cause by taking the steps taken without covering all the bases. Why does Google have to call in 100 employees? Why is the NBA having to worry about players? Why are so many up in arms, not about what was done but how it was done? Why is an interpreter stopped? Green cards…what the heck? How do you leave so much confusion? How do you mishandle something of such importance? On top of that, we wonder why the President picks and chooses some countries but leaves out others that are worse. We wrote commentary about a week ago asking the new President to slow his roll. Quite often, winners get full of themselves and think they can do anything without repercussion. We again say to the president to slow his roll. His latest move could have been done much easier, much better and much cleaner.

Just to give you an idea of how polarized things now are, here are just a few tweets from both sides. We left out the real nasty expletive-filled tweets. Ladies and gents, this is a moment in time and unfortunately, it is only going to get worse. In no particular order…enjoy!

Just to be clear: Iraqi refugee held in cuffs for 17 hours at JFK before being allowed in was an interpreter for US troops during the war.

Don’t be damn simpletons. If you like the EO, you should be enraged at the WH’s execution. Allows the left to maim the entire policy.

How is a 90 day moratorium to reassess our vetting from failed states a “Muslim ban”?

What a debacle. Chances aren’t awful that Trump, seeing the PR cascade here, finds somebody to throw under the bus.

Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, Iran. With exception of Iran, NONE have functioning central governments. How can we vet fully?

Refugees taken: Israel: 0 Saudi Arabia: 0 UAE: 0 China: 0 Japan: 0 India: 0 Mexico: 0 This is about collapsing the West
Notice how muslims March for abortion while they invade western countries & reproduce like cockroaches.Out breeding is part of their plan!

I think he’s letting models stay Iran retaliates against Trump’s travel ban by imposing its own travel ban on US
citizens. And there go my summer plans.

The number of fatal U.S. terrorist attacks by persons entering the U.S. from the 7 banned Muslim majority countries? ZERO.

As Muslim Ban protests erupt nationwide and outside White House, Trump holds private screening of “Finding Dory.” Not joking.

Huge protest reports coming in from MSP Terminal 1, SFO, Kansas City, Boston City Hall, BDL, at John Glenn in Columbus and Detroit Metro 4pm People are threatening us by saying Muslim Ban will turn more Muslims into terrorists. Don’t fall for it, it’s pure blackmail.

Sorry but it’s not our president’s job to fulfill the dreams & wishes of citizens of other counties.

If only Rahm cared as much about the people on Chicago’s South Side as he does the refugees from hotbeds of Islamic extremism.

If the protesters at JFK Airport have a problem with the Muslim Ban, why not take the next flight to Iraq or Syria and lead by example.

How many Muslim countries have barred Israeli’s entering? 16. Yet we have no uproar, why? It’s time to highlight Islamic hypocrisy

ACLU now says it has received 290,000 online donations totaling $19.4 million since Saturday morning. Average per year is $3.4 million.

If the President of the United States continues to defy the order of a federal court, he should be impeached.

Gates and Buffett at Columbia University