Listen To Monday’s Investor’s Edge Radio Show: 10/31/2016
Investor’s Edge: 10/31/2016
By Gary K
More deterioration…simple as that. Most are blaming Friday’s swoon after a strong open on the Clinton news and gather they are correct. But we do not rationalize. Just remember, markets have been deteriorating for weeks. And now:
The Russell 2000 indeed broke the support we outlined for you at about 1200. In order for others to join in, the Dow would have to cleanly break below 17,992 and the S&P at 2119…and that has not happened yet. Both do trade below the 50 day average.
But…the NASDAQ and the NDX have now broke below the 50 day. Big names like Amgen and Amazon contributed to the downside. Amgen basically crashes on earnings…Amazon breaks the 50 day on a downside gap.
The bigger problem is sector-wise. While major indices are just a few percent below highs, there are more yearly lows than highs on both exchanges. This is not great news. On top of that, except for financials and semis, not much else is holding up. The oils were holding up but we are now seeing cracks. We are also not seeing much turning up. Maybe the cruise lines, maybe the airlines starting to come on but not thrilled. On the negative front is just about everything else with everything health care continuing to melt down. In fact, we saw a bunch of crashes in biotech, drug wholesalers and a few other areas. We could list you the rest of the negative areas but it is basically everything led down by interest-rate sensitive areas we have been telling you about for weeks.
We now head into a Fed week (They will do nothing!) and then the election. We don’t have to tell you how depressing this election has become. Many are making calls based on who may or may not win. We would rather let the market decide. Patience continues to be imperative.
In 1981, Carter returned to Georgia to his peanut farm, which he had placed into a blind trust during his presidency to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest. He found that the trustees had mismanaged the trust, leaving him more than one million dollars in debt. In the years that followed, he has led an active life, establishing the Carter Center, building his presidential library, teaching at Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia, and writing numerous books. He has also contributed to the expansion of Habitat for Humanity, to build affordable housing. Since early September 2012, Carter has been alive longer after leaving the White House than any other U.S. President.
Carter Center and Nobel Prize
Carter has been involved in a variety of national and international public policy, conflict resolution, human rights and charitable causes. In 1982, he established the Carter Center in Atlanta to advance human rights and alleviate human suffering. The non-profit, nongovernmental Center promotes democracy, mediates and prevents conflicts, and monitors the electoral process in support of free and fair elections. It also works to improve global health through the control and eradication of diseases such as Guinea worm disease, river blindness, malaria, trachoma, lymphatic filariasis, and schistosomiasis. It also works to diminish the stigma of mental illnesses and improve nutrition through increased crop production in Africa.
A major accomplishment of The Carter Center has been the elimination of more than 99 percent of cases of Guinea worm disease, from an estimated 3.5 million cases in 1986 to 148 reported cases in 2013 to 23 in 2015The Carter Center has monitored 96 elections in 38 countries since 1989. It has worked to resolve conflicts in Haiti, Bosnia, Ethiopia, North Korea, Sudan and other countries. Carter and the Center support human rights defenders around the world and have intervened with heads of state on their behalf.
In 2002, President Carter received the Nobel Peace Prize for his work “to find peaceful solutions to international conflicts, to advance democracy and human rights, and to promote economic and social development” through The Carter Center. Three sitting presidents, Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, and Barack Obama, have received the prize; Carter is unique in receiving the award for his actions after leaving the presidency. He is, along with Martin Luther King Jr., one of only two native Georgians to receive the Nobel Prize.
In 1994, North Korea had expelled investigators from the International Atomic Energy Agency and was threatening to begin processing spent nuclear fuel. In response, then-President Clinton pressured for US sanctions and ordered large amounts of troops and vehicles into the area to brace for war.
Bill Clinton secretly recruited Carter to undertake a peace mission to North Korea, under the guise that it was a private mission of Carter’s. Clinton saw Carter as a way to let North Korean President Kim Il-sung back down without losing face.
Carter negotiated an understanding with Kim Il-sung, but went further and outlined a treaty, which he announced on CNN without the permission of the Clinton White House as a way to force the US into action.
The Clinton Administration signed a later version of the Agreed Framework, under which North Korea agreed to freeze and ultimately dismantle its current nuclear program and comply with its nonproliferation obligations in exchange for oil deliveries, the construction of two light water reactors to replace its graphite reactors, and discussions for eventual diplomatic relations.
The agreement was widely hailed at the time as a significant diplomatic achievement. However, in December 2002, the Agreed Framework collapsed as a result of a dispute between the George W. Bush Administration and the North Korean government of Kim Jong-il.
In 2001, George W. Bush had taken a confrontational position toward North Korea. And in January 2002, Bush had named North Korea as part of an “Axis of Evil“. Meanwhile, North Korea began developing the capability to enrich uranium.
Bush Administration opponents of the Agreed Framework believed that the North Korean government never intended to give up a nuclear weapons program. However, supporters of the Agreed Framework believed that the agreement could have been successful, had it not been undermined by the Bush Administration.
In August 2010, Carter traveled to North Korea in an attempt to secure the release of Aijalon Mahli Gomes. Gomes, a U.S. citizen, was sentenced to eight years of hard labor after being found guilty of illegally entering North Korea. Carter successfully secured the release.
In 2006, at the UK Hay Festival, Carter stated that Israel has at least 150 nuclear weapons. He expressed his support for Israel as a country, but criticized its domestic and foreign policy; “One of the greatest human rights crimes on earth is the starvation and imprisonment of 1.6m Palestinians,” said Carter.
In April 2008, the London-based Arabic newspaper Al-Hayat reported that Carter met with exiled Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal on his visit to Syria. The Carter Center initially did not confirm nor deny the story. The US State Department considers Hamas a terrorist organization. Within this Mid-East trip, Carter also laid a wreath on the grave of Yasser Arafat in Ramallah on April 14, 2008. Carter said on April 23 that neither Condoleezza Rice nor anyone else in the State Department had warned him against meeting with Hamas leaders during his trip. Carter spoke to Mashaal on several matters, including “formulas for prisoner exchange to obtain the release of Corporal Shalit.”
In May 2007, while arguing that the United States should directly talk to Iran, Carter again stated that Israel has 150 nuclear weapons in its arsenal.
In December 2008, Carter visited Damascus again, where he met with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and the Hamas leadership. During his visit he gave an exclusive interview to Forward Magazine, the first ever interview for any American president, current or former, with a Syrian media outlet.
Carter visited with three officials from Hamas who have been living at the International Red Cross office in Jerusalem since July 2010. Israel believes that these three Hamas legislators had a role in the 2006 kidnapping of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, and has a deportation order set for them.
In August 2014, Carter was joined by Mary Robinson during the 2014 Israel–Gaza conflict with the pair pressing for the inclusion of Hamas as an actor in peace talks with Israel, recognition of the group as a legitimate political entity, and the lifting of the siege of Gaza. The two Elders, in an op-ed article in Foreign Policy, noted the recent unity deal between Hamas and Fatah when Hamas agreed with the Palestinian Authority to denounce violence, recognize Israel and adhere to past agreements, saying it presented an opportunity. Carter and Robinson called on the UN Security Council to act on what they described as the inhumane conditions in Gaza, and mandate an end to the siege.
On June 18, 2007, Carter, accompanied by his wife, arrived in Dublin, Ireland, for talks with President Mary McAleese and Bertie Ahern concerning human rights. On June 19, Carter attended and spoke at the annual Human Rights Forum at Croke Park. An agreement between Irish Aid and The Carter Center was also signed on this day.
Carter led a mission to Haiti in 1994 with Senator Sam Nunn and former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Colin Powell to avert a US-led multinational invasion and restore to power Haiti’s democratically elected president, Jean-Bertrand Aristide.
Carter visited Cuba in May 2002 and had full discussions with Fidel Castro and the Cuban government. He was allowed to address the Cuban public uncensored on national television and radio with a speech that he wrote and presented in Spanish. In the speech, he called on the US to end “an ineffective 43-year-old economic embargo” and on Castro to hold free elections, improve human rights, and allow greater civil liberties. He met with political dissidents; visited the AIDS sanitarium, a medical school, a biotech facility, an agricultural production cooperative, and a school for disabled children; and threw a pitch for an all-star baseball game in Havana. The visit made Carter the first President of the United States, in or out of office, to visit the island since the Cuban revolution of 1959.
Carter observed the Venezuela recall elections on August 15, 2004. European Union observers had declined to participate, saying too many restrictions were put on them by the Hugo Chávez administration. A record number of voters turned out to defeat the recall attempt with a 59 percent “no” vote. The Carter Center stated that the process “suffered from numerous irregularities,” but said it did not observe or receive “evidence of fraud that would have changed the outcome of the vote”. On the afternoon of August 16, 2004, the day after the vote, Carter and Organization of American States (OAS) Secretary General César Gaviria gave a joint press conference in which they endorsed the preliminary results announced by the National Electoral Council. The monitors’ findings “coincided with the partial returns announced today by the National Elections Council,” said Carter, while Gaviria added that the OAS electoral observation mission’s members had “found no element of fraud in the process.” Directing his remarks at opposition figures who made claims of “widespread fraud” in the voting, Carter called on all Venezuelans to “accept the results and work together for the future”. A Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates (PSB) exit poll had predicted that Chávez would lose by 20 percent; when the election results showed him to have won by 20 percent, Douglas Schoen commented, “I think it was a massive fraud”. US News & World Report offered an analysis of the polls, indicating “very good reason to believe that the [Penn, Schoen & Berland] exit poll had the result right, and that Chávez’s election officials – and Carter and the American media – got it wrong.” The exit poll and the Venezuela government’s control of election machines became the basis of claims of election fraud. However an Associated Pressreport states that Penn, Schoen & Berland used volunteers from pro-recall organization Súmate for fieldwork, and its results contradicted five other opposition exit polls.
Following Ecuador‘s severing of ties with Colombia in March 2008, Carter brokered a deal for agreement between the countries’ respective presidents on the restoration of low-level diplomatic relations announced June 8, 2008.
On November 18, 2009, Carter visited Vietnam to build houses for the poor. The one-week program, known as Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter Work Project 2009, built 32 houses in Dong Xa village, in the northern province of Hải Dương. The project launch was scheduled for November 14, according to the news source which quoted the Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Nguyen Phuong Nga. Administered by the non-governmental and non-profit Habitat for Humanity International (HFHI), the annual program of 2009 would build and repair 166 homes in Vietnam and some other Asian countries with the support of nearly 3,000 volunteers around the world, the organization said on its website. HFHI has worked in Vietnam since 2001 to provide low-cost housing, water, and sanitation solutions for the poor. It has worked in provinces like Tiền Giang and Đồng Nai as well as Ho Chi Minh City.
On July 18, 2007, Carter joined Nelson Mandela in Johannesburg, South Africa, to announce his participation in The Elders, a group of independent global leaders who work together on peace and human rights issues. The Elders work globally, on thematic as well as geographically specific subjects. The organization’s priority issue areas include the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Korean Peninsula, Sudan, and South Sudan, sustainable development, and equality for girls and women.
Carter has been actively involved in the work of The Elders, participating in visits to Cyprus, the Korean Peninsula, and the Middle East, among others In October 2007, Carter toured Darfur with several of the Elders, including Desmond Tutu. Sudanese security prevented him from visiting a Darfuri tribal leader, leading to a heated exchange. He returned to Sudan with fellow Elder Lakhdar Brahimi in May 2012 as part of The Elders’ efforts to encourage the presidents of Sudan and South Sudan to return to negotiations, and highlight the impact of the conflict on civilians.
In November 2008, President Carter, former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, and Graça Machel, wife of Nelson Mandela, were stopped from entering Zimbabwe, to inspect the human rights situation, by President Robert Mugabe‘s government. The Elders instead made their assessment from South Africa, meeting with Zimbabwe– and South Africa-based leaders from politics, business, international organisations and civil society in Johannesburg.
Now…whenever you have a few minutes, go check out the wikileaks (not wikipedia) of Bill and Hillary Clinton. Then take a few minutes to compare one president who was determined to do good without enriching himself or his family, without personal agenda and without personal ulterior motive. You may disagree with his policies like we disagree with many but one cannot argue the intent. On the other hand and in plain site, it is now too easy to deduce that the Clinton’s agenda was to enrich themselves as well as their cronies…and enrich themselves they did…in ways and numbers unimaginable. “ Tell me Gordon, when does it all end, huh? How many yachts can you water ski behind? How much is enough?
And now, because of a hacker, not heads buried in the sand journalists, it is all coming out and all coming out to possibly bite them right where the sun doesn’t shine. The Washington left has been yapping away forever about the culture of corruption of the Republican party. The Washington left has been yapping away forever how the Republican party only cares about the rich and loathes the poor, the downtrodden, the aged and the children. But with all evidence in hand, the Washington left not only ignores what can only be called a sleazy, slimy, influence peddling machine masquerading as a foundation/charity, but actually celebrates these “accomplishments!”
We will know in 9 days how this nauseating election ends up but we think this episode is going to have legs. Reap meet sow!
Stock futures are quiet ahead of Monday’s open as investors look forward to the next Fed meeting on Wednesday and the latest round of earnings data.
Gary’s Thoughts: Futures up a wee bit after an election news-moving Friday. Continue to be patient.
- Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 AM ET
- Chicago PMI 9:45 AM ET
- Dallas Fed Mfg Survey 10:30 AM ET
- Farm Prices 3:00 PM ET
- GE, Baker Hughes Deal to Create Energy Powerhouse
Gary’s Thoughts: More to come.
- A history of the controversy Hillary Clinton can’t seem to shake. Latest FBI email probe weighs on election
Gary’s Thoughts: Ya think! This doesn’t happen by accident.