The final word!

First off, my staff and I wish you a happy happy new year.

The Knicks are 5-28.

Several things stood out as muy importante to us this year.

CENTRAL BANKS- Central banks continued to maniacally print money. Leave no doubt, it was not a coincidence that when Yellen stopped the printing, Japan and Europe started. On top of that, you have the almighty China easing. And remember, we are still at 0% interest rates even though we supposedly had a 5% GDP quarter. In a normal year…way back in the normal years, fed funds would be 4% right now with 5% GDP.

INTEREST RATES- If you told me the ten year would be 2.18 and the 30 year would be 2.75 at the end of the year, I would have laughed. f you had told me Japan and Germany would have negative rates, I would have laughed. If you told me Germany/France 10-yr yields would be at all-time lows of 54 & 83 bps, I would have laughed. Nevertheless, low interest rates help…of course, if you are a saver, you continue to be screwed.

OIL PRICES- How do you say a $500 billion-750 billion tax break across the globe? How do you say $100 billion break here in the U.S? Very simply, in spite of the doomsayers saying this drop is telegraphing the end of the world, I will stick to my guns and say this is nothing but good news.

As we enter the new year, several things come to mind:

We haven’t had a bear in almost 6 years.

We haven’t had a good correction in a few years.

Bullishness is rampant.

Biotechs with no sales are announcing anything and tripling in price overnight. Over 120 Biotech names with no sales have come public during the past 2-3 years with the number ramped up in past year.

Let’s just say we are overdue…way overdue…but that does not mean market has to get in trouble. There is no doubt in my mind that Central banks around the globe are underpinning asset prices with a put by printing money and keeping rates at 0% with the printed money. This has always led to bubbles…which has always led to pops of those bubbles. But every now and then, you get major climactic runs before the bubble bursts. Just think internet in 99 and housing in the mid-2000s.  This time? We will be watching.

 

 

The Knicks are 5-28.

Just thought I would throw in the Knick’s won-lost stats as the market went into a coma yesterday. As I write this, futures are actually down as Asia and now Europe sell off overnight. What? You mean markets are actually down? After all,  Germany/France 10-yr yields hit all-time lows of 54 & 83 bps. Yes…that’s the 10 year. After all, the German 2 year yield is negative. Yup…buy a 2 year AND PAY THEM. Yup, you give them the toaster.

If you would have asked me a year ago where I thought yields would be, I would have been better off telling you the Knicks would win the championship this year. That’s why I do not predict a year out. In fact, I have no clue what I am eating for lunch today.

All I know is that the biggest bubble in history, the bond market, both here and many places abroad, continues to have distorted price and yield. I was always taught to believe lower yields were a good thing as cost of capital drops. Just not sure THESE rates have anything normal about them. Welcome to the GRM! (Government run markets!)

Weekend market report!

As we enter the final stretch of the year, the major indices are enjoying the end of year move we expected. This same thing occurred last year with the market topping the first day of 2014.
You are hearing it every day. Major indices in new high ground. We will not argue but for those reading this report, the market has been more of a two-way street. Simply put, we have been urging you that regardless of the major indices, you should avoid the following areas:
Energy
Oil & Gas
Solar
Steel
Coal
Gold  & Silver
Gaming
Building/Construction
Building/Cement
Aluminum, Copper and all that stuff
Russia, Brazil and most commodity-based countries
Emerging markets
Small caps vs large caps (more on that in a second)
Rails (not all)
The good news is that on top of the major indices, there remains a good sized list on what is working:
Biotech…but careful. This group held the 50 day last week after a serious sell-off. A break below would change the stance.
Semiconductors
Banks
Retail-dept. stores, home improvement, discounters,apparel,drug stores
Reits
Utilities- on fire
Household products
Big banks and big regional banks
Hotels/cruise lines
Aerospace/defense
Insurance
So you can see a very split tape. If you were in the first group, you would be feeling ill. So pay attention as we enter the new year.
As far as the small caps, a word to the wise. Many are yapping about the Russell 2000 finally moving out of range to the upside. We expected some of this as we entered the period of the January effect. We are just not so sure this will be long lasting. We hope there is more to this because if the small caps can get going, this move will get legs.
Just keep in mind, this move again coincided with Japan and Euro heading into printmoney land and China lowering rates even though they are supposedly in good shape. The GRM (Government run markets) remain in force.

 

50 numbers from 2014

50 Numbers From 2014 That Reflect On The Times

By Michael Snyder at End Of The American Dream blog

2014 was quite a bizarre year, wasn’t it? The past 12 months brought us MH370, Ebola, civil war in Ukraine, civil unrest in Ferguson, the rise of ISIS and the fall of the Democrats in the midterm elections. Our world is becoming crazier and more unstable with each passing day, and I have a feeling that things are going to accelerate greatly in 2015. But for the moment things are relatively quiet as much of the world stops to celebrate the holiday season, so now is a good time to look back and see where we have been over the past year. The facts that I am about to share with you sound false, but they are all quite true. If you doubt any of these facts, just click the link on the number to find the source. It has been said that truth is stranger than fiction, and that was definitely the case during the past 12 months. In no particular order, the following are 50 numbers from 2014 that sound fake but that are actually real…

2.5 – Researchers have discovered that characters in cartoons for children are 2.5 times more likely to die than characters in adult dramas. But as long as those characters look cute and make funny noises it must be okay.

$4.20 – The price of ground beef just hit a brand new record high of $4.20 a pound. Exactly 10 years ago, it was just $2.21 a pound. What do you think Clara Peller would say about this?

19.8 percent – This holiday season, nearly 20 percent of all American families are on food stamps. But since the stock market is soaring, most of the rest of the country doesn’t seem to care.

$20 – If you want to “lock down that new man for Christmas”, you can buy a positive pregnancy test on Craigslist for just 20 dollars.

29.0 years – The average age when a man in America first gets married has reached an all-time high of 29.0 years. Thus the need for the fake pregnancy tests.

31.1 percent – An astounding 31.1 percent of all U.S. young adults in the 18 to 34-year-old age bracket are currently living with their parents. But the good news is that demand for tacky basement decor is at an all-time high.

33 percent – According to the Wall Street Journal, close to one-third of all Americans have a file in the FBI’s master criminal database.

34.6 percent – According to the CDC, 34.6 percent of all men in America officially meet the criteria for being obese.

36 – At this point only 36 percent of the U.S. population can name all three branches of government.

43 – The new EPA regulations issued while Barack Obama has been president are 43 times as long as the entire Bible.

45 percent – One survey discovered that 45 percent of all Americans “dread” the Christmas season.

48 percent – Only 48 percent of Americans can immediately come up with $400 in emergency cash without borrowing it or selling something.

50 – An MIT research scientist is warning that if current trends continue 50 percent of all children in America will be autistic by the year 2025.

50 percent – Half of all college graduates in America are still financially dependent on their parents when they are two years out of college.

52 percent – According to a survey that was conducted earlier this year, 52 percent of all Americans cannot even afford the house that they are currently living in right now.

54 percent – For the first time ever, more than half of all U.S. doctors support the legalization of assisted suicide.

57 percent – A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found that 57 percent of all Americans consider race relations in America to be “bad”. That is the worst number in 20 years.

59 percent – One very disturbing recent poll discovered that 59 percent of Americans are in favor of torturing our prisoners.

60 percent – In the United States today, 60 percent of all bachelor’s degrees are earned by women.

64 percent – It would be a great understatement to say that pornography is popular with men in America. This is true even among men that are supposed to be religious. For example, one survey discovered that 64 percent of all Christian men ages 31 to 49 look at porn at least monthly.

65 percent – One shocking new poll found that 65 percent of Americans believe that the government is “broken”. The shocking part of the survey was that it was only 65 percent.

65 percent – According to a Census Bureau report that was released in December, 65 percent of all children in America are living in a home that receives some form of aid from the federal government.

70 percent – Right now, about 70 percent of all government spending goes toward dependence-creating programs.

78 percent – According to a Pew Research Center study that was released earlier this year, 78 percent of U.S. women “want a spouse with a steady job”. Apparently the other 22 percent want an unemployed bum that stays home all day playing video games.

85 percent – 85 percent of all artificial Christmas trees are now made in China, and there is a rumor that Santa and his elves are considering a permanent move to the Chinese city of Shenzhen.

1979 – The United States has become the nation of the “permanent emergency”. In fact, there has been at least one “state of emergency” in effect in this country since 1979.

7,500 – The worldwide Ebola death toll has surpassed 7,500 for the first time, but most Americans seem to believe that the crisis is over. The truth is that it may just be beginning.

20,000 – Right now McDonald’s has 14,267 locations in the United States, but payday lenders have more than 20,000.

$30,000 – According to the Social Security Administration, 52 percent of all American workers made less than $30,000 last year.

80,000 – Back in 1980, there were only about 3,000 SWAT raids conducted in the United States. But today, there are more than 80,000 SWAT raids per year in this country.

100,000 – It is estimated that there are at least 100,000 underage sex workers in the United States. In case you were wondering, yes that means that we are a very sick nation.

$1,000,000 – We are supposed to be a government “of the people, by the people and for the people”, but at this point more than half the members of Congress are millionaires.

1,400,000 – Thanks in large part to unchecked illegal immigration, there are now 1.4 million members of criminal gangs living in our cities.

2,400,000 – There are currently more than 2.4 million people behind bars in America, and since 1980 the number of people incarcerated in our prisons has quadrupled.

2,500,000 – According to the National Center on Family Homelessness, there are now 2.5 million homeless children in the United States.

4,000,000 – Right now there are more than 4 million adult websites on the Internet, and they get more traffic than Netflix, Amazon and Twitter combined.

9,700,000 – Almost 10 million more Americans have enrolled in Medicaid since Obamacare first launched.

15,000,000 – More than 15 million Americans have cosmetic procedures done each year, and Christmas is the busiest season of the year for plastic surgeons.

30,000,000 – In America today, more than 30 million Americans are taking antidepressants. And keep in mind that antidepressants are only one class of pharmaceutical drug. Overall, nearly 70 percent of all Americans are currently on at least one prescription drug according to the Mayo Clinic.

$40,000,000 – More than 40 million dollars has been spent just on vacations for Barack Obama and his family since he has been in the White House.

49,000,000 – An astounding 49 million Americans are considered to be facing food insecurity at this point.

110,000,000 – Approximately one-third of the entire population of the United States (110 million people) currently has a sexually transmitted disease according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

156,600,000 – The population of Bangladesh (156,600,000) is actually larger than the population of Russia (143,500,00). But nobody is scared of Bangladesh.

3,000,000,000 – For the first time ever, there are now more than 3 billion people on the Internet around the globe. I don’t know if that is a good thing or a bad thing.

$600,000,000,000 – Americans will spend more than 600 billion dollars this Christmas season. That is an amount of money greater than the entire GDP of Sweden.

$1,200,000,000,000 – Student loan debt has hit a grand total of 1.2 trillion dollars in the United States. That number has grown by about 84 percent just since 2008.

$2,000,000,000,000 – The war in Iraq cost U.S. taxpayers more than 2 trillion dollars, but now a radical jihadist terror organization known as ISIS controls nearly a third of the entire country.

5,000,000,000,000 – There are now 5 trillion little pieces of plastic floating around in the oceans of the world, and lots more plastic is being dumped into our oceans every single day.

$18,031,021,541,347.52 – The current size of the U.S. national debt. It increased by more than a trillion dollars during the fiscal year that ended a few months ago, and it is on pace to approximately double during Obama’s eight years in the White House.

$40,000,000,000,000 – There are five “too big to fail” banks in the United States that each have more than 40 TRILLION dollars worth of exposure to derivatives. This is a “sword of Damocles” that could destroy our financial system and our entire economy at any time. Let’s just hope that it does not happen in 2015.

So what numbers would you add to this list?