kaltbaum intraday

Wow…writing you twice intraday.
 
I put PCLN on my list but didn’t play because it was a 4th stage base…meaning it had multiple moves. It is down a big $18 today…I dont know what comes of this but already suspicious action…so off the list it goes. Also, DDD/SSYS smoked. AMZN gives back almost everything from Friday…and keeping a sharp watch

kaltbaum intraday

Wow…writing you twice intraday.
 
I put PCLN on my list but didn’t play because it was a 4th stage base…meaning it had multiple moves. It is down a big $18 today…I dont know what comes of this but already suspicious action…so off the list it goes. Also, DDD/SSYS smoked. AMZN gives back almost everything from Friday…and keeping a sharp watch

early notes

CRM supposedly doing 4 for 1 split so stock up $4…but this is not necessarily a good announcement.
 
LNKD acts well as it touches old highs.
 
Everyone now getting bearish on AAPL…but the stock is 80 points below the 50 day…it will meet up by bouncing and the 50 day falling.
 
Indices not budging but seeing some things come in. SSYS and DDD may have put in an offensive sell rule…DDD moved above trendline…I was watching for pullback…but going to sit back and watch how it plays out.

kaltbaum weekend

I take it back. You will be receiving reports this way for the next week. The leaders:
 
AMZN- Big secondary breakout on volume.
CRM- Back to highs..
CVLT- Edges out to new highs.
CELG- In some sort of high tight flag.
DDD- Verrrry extended.
EXPE- Breaks out into new highs. PCLN confirms.
EBAY- Breaks into new highs.
EQIX- Just edging higher.
MA Sitting tight.
RAX- Moves out of secondary range.
SHW- Moving into new high ground.
SSYS- See DDD.
V- Sitting tight.
 
 
Additions:
 
 
CREE- Strong gap and move. Needs pullback here.
GOOG- Big gap…a little resistance up here.
LNKD slowly moves into old highs.
NFLX- Monster gap and monster move with huge short position. Should have played.
PCLN- Big move up right side on volume…but 4th stage base.
 
Patience now paying off for EBAY and EXPE which started moving Friday. Service still owns CRM,CF,LNKD,MA,EXPE,EBAY and a market proxy.
 
To be repetitive, markets are stretched and extended beyond the norm on all time parameters. But that still doesn’t mean a pullback has to happen. Last year, market ran into April and as I scanned the markets going back to 1990, there were several occasions where moves were out of bounds…so dont get caught up in all the talk that the market HAS TO pull back. And…if it does, I expect it to be controlled and rotational. Yes…bullishness is now rampant and the small investor is supposedly getting back in AFTER the market is up 125% of March 09 low. Also saw a schmuck calling for 25,000 dow…and another one calling for higher. Funny, didn’t see any of these people say these things back in 09.
 
Only areas of trouble are gold/silver and underlying stocks, the bond market and noticed some asian countries rolling over because japan is crushing their currency on purpose which hurts other asian countries.
 
No additions today but should be a ton on a pullback.

THE SHOT OF THE WEEK

LeBron James hugs Miami Heat fan that hits $75k half-court shot

PUBLISHED Friday, Jan 25, 2013 at 10:18 pm EST

Per most NBA games, a fan was pulled out the crowd to take a shot between periods of the Miami Heat’s home game against the Detroit Pistons. In this instance, it was part of a contest sponsored by LeBron James’ foundation.

What happened next is hard to believe.

Fifty-year-old computer technician Michael Drysch from McHenry, Ill., grabbed the ball, cocked back and put in a hook shot from halfcourt to win $75,000. The shot had barely set in before James jumped the fan and celebrated with him on the court of AmericanAirlines Arena.

Source: http://aol.sportingnews.com/nba/story/2013-01-25/miami-heat-fan-hits-75000-shot-halfcourt-lebron-james-tackle

 

 

PEOPLE, CAPITAL AND MONEY WILL MOVE WHERE THEY ARE TREATED BEST. EXPECT MORE OF THIS.

France’s richest man moves to Belgium and takes multi-billion pound fortune with him ‘to avoid new socialist super-tax’

  • Bernard Arnault, head of luxury goods group LVMH, insists that he moved the cash and assets for ‘family inheritance reasons’
  • It is thought he wants to avoid a 75 per cent top rate on income being introduced by President Francois Hollande

By PETER ALLEN

PUBLISHED: 14:35 EST, 24 January 2013 | UPDATED: 09:42 EST, 25 January 2013

The richest man in France has officially transferred his multi-billion pound fortune out of his homeland to Belgium.

Bernard Arnault, head of luxury goods group LVMH, insists he has moved his assets for ‘family inheritance reasons’.

But others are convinced that the 63-year-old has joined other tycoons and celebrities in wanting to avoid taxes – including a 75 per cent top rate on income – introduced by Socialist President Francois Hollande.

Mr Arnault applied for a Belgian passport soon after the Socialists won elections last year.

Source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2267800/Bernard-Arnault-Frances-richest-man-moves-Belgium-avoid-new-socialist-super-tax.html

Read more

kaltabaum premarket

Some housekeeping.
 
Starting this weekend, this report will be part of Adam Sarhan’s report…FIND LEADING STOCKS will be the report name…so when you see it, it is not spam. My reports will come out over the weekend and Wednesday night but will also come out WHEN NEED BE. If you have any questions, you can email me at this email address.
 
This service has CF,CRM,EXPE,EBAY,LNKD,LL,MA and market proxy. So far…so good. Will have full report over weekend with leader’s list. Again, love the gaps in names like CREE,NFLX,MS,CREE and a few others.

01/24/2013: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/012418.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Apple (AAPL)

Apple reported their earnings. Earnings were flat, year over year – actually down on a number basis. Revenues were up 18%, a deceleration from quarters before.

The stock closed today at 450.50, down 63.51.

Being a huge believer in always protecting capital and knowing when maybe something is going wrong, it’s monumentally important to understand big market tops. It important to understand when major leaders top…and when a sector tops.

You never know what you’re going to get out of this.

So let me quote myself on several occasions going back into October 2012. I have no idea what Apple was going to do. I am just letting you know, that as of this second, “Apple is acting like every major top in every big leader that I have ever studied.” That’s been the quote.

Again, you never know what’s going to come. But you study precedent in the market.

You know how I tell you it’s unprecedented what the Fed and other Central Banks are doing with the printing of money? Well, in the case of Apple, THERE IS precedent. Every big leader and their major top, looks like Apple…except the ones that did major climatic runs.

So let’s go backwards.

You should be looking at a chart of this bad boy with a 50-day and a 200-day moving average.

In early-October, Apple broke the 50-day. Typically for us, the definition between an uptrend and “not” an uptrend is being above or below the 50-day moving average. Notice I didn’t say anything about a downtrend, if you’re below.  Very often, you can get below the 50-day moving average, put in a new trading range and turn back up.

But something happened. Apple kept going lower and lower and lower. And the rallies were lasting a day or two.

That is the opposite of what Apple used to do.

And then something happened on November 2nd. Apple broke the 200-day moving average. This is a longer-term moving average and, for us, it defines bull and bear markets. And something happened there. It broke. The market was in a pretty good downtrend and that’s happened before. Apple has gone through its own bear markets during bear markets.

So into November, everything was a-ok because it was going down with the market and maybe it was just a correction and we’d be alright…though we kept saying to you at the time, “it is acting like every major top.”

Well then something happened.

It kept going lower and lower. Deeper and deeper…way below it’s 200-day moving average – not a good sign. And just remember, when you live below the 200-day moving average, nothing good can possibly happen with your stock.

But it rallied up. Why? Because on November 16, the market put in a bottom.

And for a few days, the stock rallied up violently because it had had such a huge drop.

But guess what happened? It failed miserably right at the conjoining 50- and 200-day moving averages.

And then it dropped badly again, even when the market started rallying.

And then at the beginning of this year, you had a good rally off the Fiscal Cliff. And, the 1st of the year, we had gap up – and what did Apple do? It rallied right into the declining 50-day moving average again and then immediately it began to sell off again. And what have I taught you throughout the years? Bear markets are made of stocks that top out, go down, and do a stair steps to the downside. And every rally is contained by the decline 50-day moving average.

And then we posed the question to you: What does the big money know?

This is not just Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob selling. This is the big money crowd that has owned the stock for years and who are now saying, “Hmm, there’s something going wrong.”

And what did I say to you? “We’ll know a lot more on the earnings report.”

Simple as that.

The stock was down 63.50…with the Dow up – meaning more Big Money selling.

And what’s happening? We’re now finding out that there’s a major slowdown going on in Apple vs. the way it was before. The news is that fact that they are kinda sorta in trouble versus the Android and other phones. As I posed the question to you, can they go from a iPhone 1 to 2 to 3 to 7…at what point to do people say, “Enough! We don’t need the iPhone 14.”

Of course, unless you put it over your head and it cures male pattern baldness.

So I’m just letting you know that Apple continues to go through that same process of every major top. I’m not saying this to scare you. I’m saying it as a fact. Studies have shown that major stocks have dropped, on average, 70% from the highs. To be more precise – 72%.

To be clear, I’m not saying Apple is dropping 72%. What I am saying is that if it follows form like other major tops in big leaders – you never know.

Just realize what then occurs. Even now, with the stock down from 705 to 450, institutions still own a ton of stock. And as it underperforms more and more, they want less of that stock. So they have to continue selling, leading to more pressure…

Now, I don’t know what can change this, except to say probably a new dynamic, unbelievable product.

That’s my take and that’s the story

Now what’s usually the next thing that happens once, there’s some wider recognition that that Apple could be in trouble?

I call it the downward bias drift. Mean – you get a lot of selling done and then you just start getting the slow drift to the downside as, slowly by surely, more and more people get out of it in order to find other places where they can put that money.

And that’s what it looks like here.

Again, I have no idea where this ends up. I just know it continues to act like every major top in big leader that I’ve seen in the past.

To give you an idea of what I do now with Apple…I get a picture of the chart and enlarge it and I put into my files for the future, just in case we see it again – and we will. Because just remember, all stocks have had a shelf life. The stock went from 15 to 700 since they announced the iPod.

And by the way, when the iPod came out, I said, “Man, this is nothing more than a Walkman!” Good one Gary.

Anyway, you get my point.

Typically, the next thing now, that’s stating to get recognizable is…you get the slow drift downward. But we’ll see.

So far, Apple continues to act that way. And the unfortunate thing is that it’s really affecting the Nasdaq-100 in the biggest of ways.

If you have a chance, get a 1-year chart of it and the Nasdaq-100. And go get a chart of the Midcap 400. Tell me what you think.

And keep in mind that Apple is still 17% to 18% of the Nasdaq-100. I have emailed them on several occasions that Apple too much of the index. They obviously haven’t listened. But I gather that eventually they’re going to have to make some sort of a change.

The Truckers!

I’ve been talking to you about the cyclical areas. These are the areas that do best in the strongest of economies. And, for whatever reason for the past two months, they have really come to the fore.

As you know, most of the economic numbers we are reading are not very good. Some things are better. Employment’s better. And the numbers keep getting better. But they’re not great.

Housing is better. But still, Housing prices in many areas are 40% below the highs.

Things are better. But the worry is that it’s on steroids. You know – the 0% interest rates and the printing of a few trillion dollars by all the Central Banks around the globe.

If we didn’t have this massive printing of money and 0% rates, guess what I’d be telling you right now: Oh, ladies and gentlemen, about 3 to 6 months from now, we’re going to get some strong economic numbers.

Because markets are very good at forecasting it.

But let me tell you what jumping out now in a huge way: The Truckers!

Recently, I’ve told you about the airlines and the “stuff” areas.

Go look at a chart of Federal Express (FDX). It broke out seven days ago out of a long range. They’re earnings aren’t good. They came in -11%.

UPS? They were down 3%!

But look at JB Hunt (JBHT) today. It had a little breakout a couple weeks ago, but really didn’t move. But today, it’s up like 6% to 7% on huge volume.

And look at the rest of the group. It was a very good day.

So I’m letting you know that, under normal circumstances, I would tell you it is a “lock” that the economy’s getting better. But I have to think, what about all this printing of money and 0% rates and what if they have to back that? I don’t know.

By the way, Swift Transportation (SWFT) – big gap up today on very heavy volume, on their earnings.

I can list more.

Look, there’s nothing I like about the economic policies going on right now. But you do know, as I always tell you, I don’t believe in them – I believe you in YOU and our OUR hard work. And they do nothing but block us.

When I’m looking at the rails and what they’re doing right now – that could be really good news!

When see UPS and Fedex – that could be good news.

These are the companies that move things. And if things are moving, that means business is picking up.

So I’m keeping my fingers crossed. So let me be clear. If things pick up, hiring picks up. If hiring picks up, spending picks up. If hiring picks up, less people are getting payments from the government. If less people are getting payments from the government, deficits can come down.

And then you get into a virtuous cycle.

That’s how it works.

But then again, is this just money printing? That’s the question.

I don’t know. But I’m going try and give the economy, the benefit of the doubt.

And we’ll see how it plays out. 

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

kaltbaum email

AAPL really hurt indices today…especially nasdaq/ndx but we dont care. Stocks on service doing fine. EBAY looks ready in here. LL broke out and then tucked in but looks ok.
 
I am now on watch with names like cree,nflx,swft,celg as they are showing power. Just need another set-up which may take a few days.
 
Market remains stretched,overbought and all that crap…and eventually, market will care. Pullbacks/corrections are a guarantee at a given point in time. Makes life easier as it separates strength.

01/24/2013: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

Miss Today’s Show? No Problem, Listen To The Full Show Here!

Listen To Today’s Show 

Few Highlights From Today’s Show:

  • Gary Breaks Down Apple’s Numbers: Since October, Gary explained how weak Apple has acted and the importance of playing defense quickly when leading stocks and the market exhibit weakness. Gary also gives you a detailed analysis of how Apple topped and broke down over the past few months. He also covers how major leaders top and how important it is to understand tops to protect your capital.
  • Market Wrap & Sector Analysis:  Gary provides an in-depth view of the current state of the market, covers the important events that happened on Wall Street today, and highlights several leading sectors in the market right now.
  • After Hour Highlights, Today’s News, & Movers of the Day: Gary covers all the big movers of the day, important news headlines, and guides you through the important after hours action.
  • Is The Market Forecasting A Stronger Economy? Gary gives you an in depth analysis of what sectors are leading the market and what that means for the real economy (EX: transports, industrials, cyclicals, etc)

Listen To Gary’s Archives Here:

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.