kaltbaum premarket

Just woke up…vacation almost over.

I think even the incompetent bast–ds in Washington will come up with something today…JUST BECA– USE THEY DONT WANT TO GO INTO THE NEW YEAR WITHOUT SOMETHING. Doesn’t matter if it is crap. I would guess that any deal pops the market but I would laugh my — off if the market actually sells off on any news…but I doubt it.

Being a cynic of everything that happens on Wall Street (can you blame me), I find it thrilling to see…at least I heard that Barrons published an article over the weekend bullish on the almighty AAPL. Hmmmmm! You mean someone didn’t get a hold of a journalist that said…please Mr Journalist…just one nudge for a stock we are getting killed on before year-end. Every $1 is a $billion in market cap to us….please please please. So…AAPL is up $15 as I write this…that’s a whopping $15 billion before year-end for the boys. Oh Gary…you dont really believe that shenanigans like that goes on…do you? I will stop right there.

The good news is that a few charts are nice and tight in here…EQIX,SHW,EBAY,EXPE,CRM,RAX and a few others. So if we can get the market moving…there will be some things to do. Otherwise, 6 hours to wait for the boobs to get something down on the fake and conjured up fiscal stiff which will do nothing for no one…and the outcome will be higher taxes and more government spending and higher deficits. I watched the Prez state he cut spending $1 trillion and David Gregory of MEET DISTRESSED not say a freakin word of this obvious, in plain sight lie. Welcome to our media. They are just as good as the media in Venezuela.

THE COURTS GET RIGHT WHAT GOVERNMENT GETS WRONG

France’s Constitutional Council on Saturday rejected a 75 percent upper income tax rate to be introduced in 2013 in a setback to Socialist President Francois Hollande’s push to make the rich contribute more to cutting the public deficit.

The Council ruled that the planned 75 percent tax on annual income above 1 million euros ($1.32 million) – a flagship measure of Hollande’s election campaign – was unfair in the way it would be applied to different households.

Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said the government would redraft the upper tax rate proposal to answer the Council’s concerns and resubmit it in a new budget law, meaning Saturday’s decision could only amount to a temporary political blow.

Continued

SOURCE: http://www.cnbc.com

THE CON GAME CONTINUES

Greetings from Hawaii…having a fabulous time…I recommend it highly.

 I am writing this in two parts…with the first part being written on Friday December 28th and the second part Sunday evening the 30th.

I would rather be talking about markets but at this point, they are so rigged, so manipulated and so controlled by just a few con men, that there is not much to say. Bernanke realized $45 billion of printed dollars every month was not working any more…so just up it to $85 billion. This move continues to expand what I consider to be the biggest bubble in history…the bond market. Prices and yields are disjointed, dislocated and mispriced as this boob prints…prints and prints. Of course, Wall Street says nothing as they are the beneficiary…until they are not. Just remember, bubbles pop…and the bigger the bubble…the bigger the pop. Cannot go further without mentioning Uncle Timmy…yes…Mr. Geithner, the defender of our treasure…says we need more debt…more debt…more debt…higher taxes…higher taxes and more higher taxes. Yup…the defender of our treasure.

It is now in the last few minutes of Friday’s action and it looks like no deal. Markets are plunging into the close. The incompetent bast–ds on both sides still cannot get anything done…just amazing. The Dems continue to try to bankrupt this country and shrink the size of the economy while exploding the government and the Republicans just say blah blah blah. So we enter the weekend with the market definitively under pressure…but don’t fret kids…it is a mortal lock that some sort of deal gets done. I suspect the market will have some sort of a “pop” on any day. Yippee yeah yeah. Thus the con continues.

It is now 6 pm December 30…the family is now in Las Vegas to spend New Years. I must say, Vegas looks like it is packed. Good to see. But getting serious, here is the problem with all of the noise.

IT IS ONE GIANT CON GAME. Do you not get it? Have you noticed that under this leadership, time and time again, they let the sand out of the hourglass in order to BS you that there is a crisis and it must be fixed now…or else. How many times are you going to fall for it?

First off, we are here at this moment in time because of Barack Obama, because of Harry Reid, because of Nancy Pelosi, because of John Boehner, because of Mitch McConnell, because of Ben Bernanke, because of Tim Geithner and because of every politician that has been around for the past decade whose votes turned this country’s debt into a $16 trillion and counting nightmare…in easier words, the next 6 years of taxpayer dollars have already been spent. But it gets worse. This is what my President had to say on that wonderful watchdog of a show “MEET DISTRESSED” hosted by another fawning fan David Gregory.

“The only thing I would caution against, David, is I think this notion of, “Well, both sides are just kind of unwilling to cooperate.” And that’s just not true. I mean if you look at the facts, what you have is a situation here where the Democratic Party, warts and all, and certainly me, warts and all, have consistently done our best to try to put country first.

And to try to work with everybody involved to make sure that we’ve got an economy [that] grows. Make sure that it works for everybody. Make sure that we’re keeping the country safe. And does the Democratic Party still have some knee-jerk ideological positions and are there some folks in the Democratic Party who sometimes aren’t reasonable? Of course. That’s true of every political party.

But generally if you look at how I’ve tried to govern over the last four years and how I’ll continue to try to govern, I’m not driven by some ideological agenda. I am a pretty practical guy. And I just want to make sure that things work. And one of the nice things about never having another election again, I will never campaign again, is I think you can rest assured that all I care about is making sure that I leave behind an America that is stronger, more prosperous, more stable, more secure than it was when I came into office.”

I could not believe my ears. While my President continues to blame everyone else…while my President takes no blame, here are the facts…not opinion…facts.

Deficits are up almost $6 trillion under his watch. Just about all of this is from the $850 billion stimulus bill which was added to the baseline budget. This was not created by Bush…even though we all know Bush is to blame for the bubonic plague, the Chicago fire and the sinking of the titanic.

My President had unfettered power for 2 years as the Dems controlled both houses. He put through everything he wanted to put through. He increased the spending on purpose. Democrats have failed to even vote on a budget for the last 4 years, and as stated, 2 of those were when they controlled both houses and the oval office.

My President has increased spending from the mid 2s to the mid 3s…that’s trillion…accounting for almost all of the deficit. In fact, revenues into the government are back to near the highest ever. Thus the whole problem we face is a spending problem, not a tax problem.

I can go on about my complaints and my sarcasm…but I have made my point. I was taught to never argue with numbers but the sycophants in the media have spent 99.9% of the time addressing higher taxes and almost nothing on the increase in our government.

All these facts yet the Republicons remain scared of their own shadow. I am hardly hearing any defense of any of these facts that are in plain sight. I am hearing no answer when my President says he is a tax cutter and Reps just want to raise taxes. I hear nothing about the culprits in the massive run-up of these deficits. All I hear is a bunch of squeamish, worried about their next election, whimpering politicians that refuse to act on principle. Government runs because of us…because of our sweat, our toil, our smarts, our time, our tenacity, our knowledge…but somehow the mantra is that without government, we cannot survive. I have news for you, I wouldn’t let any of these con artists run my kid’s lemonade stand. Harsh? Yes it is…but facts are facts, they are running this country into the ground and in plain sight. You cannot expand government by 33% and expect good things to happen. You cannot raise taxes into the high 50s in some states and expect good things to happen…but that is exactly what is going on…and amazingly, in places like California, the people are voting for all this. For what? To give these mis-allocators of our capital more money?

Raising the highest tax rate to 39% will do nothing for the massive deficits that are now being run. It will be a pimple on an elephant’s ass…and a small pimple at that. The goal is to start the ball rolling. Let them raise it once…and watch what happens next? There are already back door taxes in Obamacare (no pun intended). There will be much more to come. Any deal is a scam…a con…a sleight of hand. In 4 years, the deficit will be in the 20s. In 4 years, taxes will be much higher. In 4 years, the potential for the economy will continue to face mounting headwinds as government interferes even more in our daily life. So far, markets have only pulled in nominally, but in this man’s opinion, this is because of the trillions of dollars of money printing in order to sustain all this nonsense. Will we get to a day when the market has finally had enough? I will keep my fingers crossed…but all bubbles pop. We have had two mothers of all bubbles since just the year 2000. I cannot help but believe another one is just ahead as it has become the norm that debt must continue to go higher…just ask Uncle Timmy.

I would have loved to write a happier report as we enter the New Year…but I have to face the facts that are smacking us square in the face. Unfortunately, other countries now believe Mr. Bubble is onto something as Japan is now crushing their own currency, Europe is now printing in a big way and monetary easing and printing of money is the norm around the globe.

kaltbaum email

Technically, market came in this week.
The DOW finished below the 50 and 200 day.
The S&P finished below the 50 day but above the 200 day.
The NASDAQ/NDX finished below both.
The RUSSELL remains above both showing some relative strength in the small caps.
The NYSE remains above both.
Foreign markets remain strong as Japan followed Bernanke in printing oodles of money. Their goal is to crash the yen and so far, job well done…check out the FXY. Other Asian markets strong…and Europe also strong as they bottomed the day they announced printing of money.
Growth remains all but dead. Retail is a horror show. Financials remain relatively strong.
THAT ALL SAID: We are held hostage here until the corrupt assclowns in Washington come up with another fake deal to save the day. If something happens over the weekend, expect market to gap up. Keep in mind, it is a guarantee that eventually something gets done…and for whatever stupid reason, the market will react well to it. I just do not know when something gets announced.
You can see from the following leaders list…that a couple more names broke…and anything still on there giving hardly any gains. RAX and CRM do have the best charts on the list. SSYS and DDD are probably going on this list…but both extended here for entry and frankly, I do not want to do a thing until a resolution of the fiscal stiff.
AMZN– Comes off list…ugly week…possible big double top…but still above 50 day.
AMGN– Breaks 50 day…comes off list.
CRM- Pulls back towards pivot in crappy market.
EXPE- Sitting just above 50 day in a tight base.
EBAY-Sitting just below 50 day and needs to hold here.
MA Also pulls into 50 day.
REGN- Back sitting on 50 day as biotechs weaken a bit.
RAX- Breakout holds fine so far.
SHW- Now sitting tightly on the 50 day…needs to hold…has had a good move already.
V- No issues…just extended.
ULTA- Still holding the 50 day…and basing.

kaltbaum email

Well…just woke up…I see my sarcastic pre market report already coming to fruition. Our wonderful president who has hamstrung this economy with $6 trillion in debt and another $10 trillion to come over the next few years…is going to offer a “scaled back budget package.” What the heck does that mean? Of course, they can announce that the prez ate a hamburger instead of a salad for lunch and they will try and rally the market. Anyway…the dow rallied 90 points on that non-news.
 
It should be noted that I do believe something will get done on the fiscal cliff…but it will be just another scam…government spending will continue to skyrocket as well as taxes and regulations. If they cant get it though the front door, it will come through the back door…NO PUN INTENDED. Keep in mind, there are huge tax increases and govt spending in Obamacare. but I do expect the market to have some sort of pop on that news…when it occurs. I just have no clue if any pop lasts. And yes…that is just a guess as there is no way to predict this crap.
 
Going back to sleep.

kaltbaum premarket

Well…it is 415 am where I am vacationing…as I stay on Florida time.
 
So…reversal yesterday as fiscal stiff talks resume…received a few emails telling me market now going higher…and of course, just to piss everyone off, the market has a decent gap to the downside. But dont worry…at 11 am, Reid will say they are talking…so market will rally 100…but at 1 pm, Boehner will say the opposite…so market will tank 100 immediately…but at 3 59, with the market down 100, someone will say something and the market will rally 200 in 45 seconds.
 
Do I sound sarcastic? Kids…it is that nauseating to watch the imbeciles that could not run a lemonade stand…decide on the future of this country. These people have already destroyed our fiscal well being yet they are still in their jobs…because we are the idiots who keep voting them in. Well…maybe not we…but someone is.
 
It is amazing that we have come to the point that the public is so stupid to believe the answer to our problems is to just raise more debt and to raise taxes on those people who are producing to take care of those who are not…but before the “are not producing” get their check, the politicians take their tribute as they are nothing more than gigantic bookies.
 
Ok…rant is over…going back to sleep. If you want to trade this…make sure your OUIJA BOARD working. I think that is how you spell OUIJA.

kaltbaum email

The nonsense continues. If there is any reason why I have been telling you to play light…look no further than today. Look no further than the past few days. Just a bunch of nonsense from Washington which is making the markets all but impossible. Markets rallied on blah blah blah…and tomorrow, markets can dump if the blah blah blah goes the other way.
 
Technically, defense day as the boys reversed the market…but there is nothing in the way of power….but there is a decent amount of setting up in the same names I have mentioned…like EXPE,EBAY which have held and remain tight and a few things sitting on the 50 day like a REGN,SHW and a ULTA…but again, why play when things just sit.
 
If anything shows real power, it will be mentioned here. Stay tuned.

kaltbaum email

AMZN broke below pivot as growth just aint happening. Amazing that growth cannot get going. Sell on this break of pivot…small loss.

kaltbaum email

I think for maybe the 3rd time in the past year, there will most likely not be a report tomorrow night as I will be traveling.
 
For example…set-ups on the long side are names like MON,MSI,BG,LNKD,WPI,KMX,EOG while on the other end, short set ups in names like SLB,WSM,OCN,M,CSX,KLAC…meaning in my years, I don’t think I have seen such a split tape.
 
The problem for me is growth…CRM is the only thing really moving…everything else just sits. I am not sure how long that lasts….but we will be patient and play things as they come.
 
The above names are just examples…if any start to move, I may look to play but the problem with split tapes is that you just dont get too much on either side. I really dont like playing during holidays but again, if something gets going, I will let you know.

IN 2022, THE ANNUAL DEFICITS WILL BE MORE THAN THE SPENDING…OVER $3 TRILLION/YEAR

Hey…you voted him in again!

Spending will increase 55 percent over the next decade, if President Barack Obama’s budget plan goes into effect. The finding comes from the Republican-side of the Senate Budget Committee, which notes that Obama’s “Proposal Would Spend $880 Billion Over Already Projected Increases.”

Here’s a chart, detailing how Obama’s plan would bring spending from $3.62 trillion in 2013 to $5.63 trillion in 2022:

Continued

SOURCE: http://www.weeklystandard.com