kaltbaum email

A little news that nothing getting done on the fiscal stiff hit the markets…but right here…thinking a little vulnerable to pulling in as many things look like they have wedged right into resistance…including some major indices…so we sit tonight.
EBAY looking fine but must pay attention to market. GLD just a smidge below 50 day with SLV holding tight.


And here in a nutshell is what is wrong with a biased media. Matt Lauer simply tees up Warren Buffett. Does not ask him what the higher taxes will accomplish. Doesn’t ask him about government spending. Doesn’t ask him how this will help the economy or help with the deficits. Just put the ball on the tee and hit away. Amazing that Mr. Buffett says morale will go up for the middle class if taxes are raised on the wealthy. Wrong Potsie. Good paying jobs will make morale better! 

MATT LAUER: As we come to the fiscal cliff in the next month or so, and one of the sticking points, tax rates for the wealthy, you favor a minimum tax rate for the wealthy of 30% for taxable income between $1 and $10 million, 35% for income over that. Do you see the political will in Washington right now to accomplish that and come up with a compromise?

[ON-SCREEN HEADLINE: Today Exclusive; Warren Buffett on the Economy & Taxing the Rich]

WARREN BUFFETT: I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens. I mean, who knows what happens.

LAUER: That deal?

BUFFETT: That deal could happen, sure. I mean, I think there’s a general feeling among the American public certainly, and even among many in Congress, that the rich like me have been getting away with low tax rates, and that it’s time to make the tax rates more progressive.

LAUER: One of the ideas being pushed out there by the Right is that if you raise taxes on the wealthy it will have a chilling effect on hiring and investment in this country. Part of the op-ed you wrote in the New York Times is this, bear with me: “Suppose that an investor you admire and trust comes to you with an investment idea. ‘This is a good one,’ he says enthusiastically. ‘I’m in it, I think you should be, too.’ Would your reply possibly be this? ‘Well, it all depends on what my tax rate will be on the gain you’re saying we’re going to make. If the taxes are too high, I’d rather leave the money in my savings account earning a quarter of 1 percent.’ Only in Grover Norquist’s imagination does such a response exist.” Why do you think Republicans are clinging so tightly to that idea?

BUFFETT: Well, I think they’re worried about primaries next time, but I think you’re seeing people peel away from that. I’ll call you at midnight tonight, Matt, and I’ll tell you I’ve got the greatest stock I’ve ever seen. You’re not gonna say, “What’s the tax rate gonna be?” You’re gonna say, “What’s the name of it?”

LAUER: So bottom line, would raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans have a chilling effect on hiring in this country?

BUFFETT: No. No, and I think would have a great effect in terms of the morale of the middle class, who have seen themselves paying high payroll taxes, income taxes, and then they watch guys like me end up paying a rate that’s below that, you know, paid by the people in my office.


Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi has told the country’s senior judges that he did not infringe on their authority when he seized near absolute powers.

An aide to Morsi said the decree was limited to “sovereignty-related issues,” but that did not satisfy his critics.

The uncompromising stance came during Monday’s meeting between Morsi and members of the Supreme Judiciary Council in a bid to resolve a four-day crisis that has plunged the country into a new round of turmoil with clashes between the two sides that have left one protester dead and hundreds wounded.


SOURCE: http://www.aljazeera.com


NANJING, Nov. 26 (Xinhua) — China’s new round of structural tax cutting is likely to benefit more than 900,000 enterprises nationwide, according to a working conference held here on Monday to discuss the country’s piloting of replacing business tax with a value-added tax (VAT).

About 710,000 enterprises have been covered by the tax-cutting program, and another 200,000 will be included starting from Dec.1 this year, according to the meeting jointly held by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation.

Shanghai piloted the program on Jan. 1 this year in an effort to decrease the overall tax burden and boost the transportation and service sectors. The pilot was then expanded to provincial regions including Beijing, Guangdong and Zhejiang later this year.


SOURCE: http://news.xinhuanet.com

kaltbaum premarket

Futures flat to down just a wee bit.
No changes from last night. I still believe this won’t be easy and do not believe a new bull market has started…but thinking we can get more upside into seasonal end of year strength.
EBAY is buyable in here…or if you choose…towards a little pullback towards $50. Also watching AMGN,EXPE,LL,MA and a few others. Again…would not take full positions just yet.
If names like CVLT,DDD,SSYS pull in properly, will also look at those.




Today the market was acting “blah” and then it rolled over late in the day as Harry Reid came and said that they’re getting nowhere with their negotiations on the Fiscal “Stiff.” Just remember what I have told you ladies and gentlemen.

We got to the Fiscal Stiff because they did it on purpose. What they like doing is creating a crisis with “no time left…we better do something” in order to further their agenda. And what you need to know – very importantly – is that the Republicans are caving as we speak, which basically means there’ll be zero spending cuts. Not one dime of government spending cuts. They’re going to raise taxes and deficits are going to continue to skyrocket going forward.

The whole positioning is a scam and sham.

Why am I bringing this up now? Because guess what we have to deal with?

You know how for weeks and weeks and months and months, we have had to sit around waiting for the Fed to decide whether or not they were going to print more money or not and the markets were held hostage? Remember we had to deal with Europe and what are they going to do and who are they going to save?

Well now we get to wait on what they decide to do, and how they decide to it with our taxes.

Today, when Harry Reid came out and said what he said, the market took a hit. But it wasn’t that bad.

So that’s what we were going to get. And here’s my prediction. Mark this down kids:

On purpose, nothing’s going to get done. They’re going to let taxes rise for everybody. Upper, middle, and lower. But then they’re going to come back and lower taxes for the middle class, I think. So they’re going to let it expire, raise taxes, and then come back on lowering certain areas. But there will be no spending cuts. There will be nothing done on entitlements because they are quite happy with what’s going on. Why? Because they get to spend our treasure into oblivion.

We’re already in oblivion by the way, at a trillion dollars a year and $16 trillion total in debt.

And, of course, I can’t leave out the paws in the air, lying on their back, tongue wagging, lapdog con artist media that are driving all of this. You know I can’t watch these people because I get physically ill.

But I know how to get the videos of everything they do and here is what they do. They bring on the Republicans…”Why don’t you raise taxes on the wealthy? How is that going to hurt them.” In other words, they’re asking questions from that side. They are completely biased.

Now we have the same con artist media who want taxes to be raised. They’re part of the process now. And, of course, Warren Buffett was on with Matt Lauer today who just put a little ball on the tee. He probably was in the green room with Warren Buffett beforehand asking, “What do you want me to ask you?” Because he teed him up, put down the Republicans…and that that and the other thing…

Warren Buffett wouldn’t invest a dime in this government if it was a business. So he’s full of crap and it’s getting tiresome.

Ladies and Gentlemen, there’s a simple problem going on here. They’re taking more money out of the economy and putting it over to them. And they stink. They’re horrible. They’re the worst of the worst. They are economically illiterate. They do not know how to allocate capital. They are corrupt con-artist chronistic politicians who put the money in their favorite’s hands through government guarantees and all that stuff…and nothing gets done.

And they only reason why we’re even in the shape we’re in right now is because of the hard work of the 100 some odd million people who go to work every day. They’re putting headwinds in front of us.

And have to tell you. I was email back and forth with a good buddy of mine. You watch him all the time on Fox – Jonathan Honig of Cashin’ In. I just emailed him, “I think we’re losing the battle.” And he told me basically to keep a stiff upper lip and never think you’ve lost the battle. But I do.

The con-artist media is driving the story, mentioning nothing about spending cuts and government in trillion dollar deficits that are not caused by taxes…they’re caused by the spending. And nobody’s driving that news and it’s going to affect you and the markets going forward.

And if you think raising taxes on the rich isn’t going to hurt the middle class…(sigh).

And they first asked for $800 billion and raised taxes and they’re asking for $1.6 trillion.

Whether you agree or disagree with me, let me give you two numbers:

$2.4 trillion and $3.6 trillion.

$2.4 trillion is how much revenues are going into the U.S. government this year. It’s the same number as in 2008.

But the deficit is going to be $1.2 trillion this year. Why? Because they raised spending from $2.7 trillion to $3.6 trillion.

$900 billion more in spending from four years ago is 75% of the deficit this year. But they don’t mention anything about that. The media refuses to ask those right questions about that. Those are opinions. Those are facts.

We don’t have a tax problem. We have as spending problem by these con-artist corrupt, sleazy sleazebag politicians that could not give a flying hoot about your hard earned tax payer dollars. And frankly, they think their money to dole out to you.

As they say, elections have consequences. Yippe yay yay.


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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.



kaltbaum email

Conviction and trust are the two most important intangibles when trading/investing. Both come from definable trends in the market. When there isn’t a definable trend or when a potential turn looks suspect, both intangibles are low. It is only in the further movement of a good trend do these intangibles feel better.
Right now, we have had a called follow through day…on a half day, light trading, holiday. And then there is today. I liked today. Forget the DOW being down. More importantly, markets came back from lows and a few names broke out on volume. So we have a follow through day…maybe suspect…but add in a few breakouts and it is time to probe…just in case it turns into something. Add in end of month…add in seasonal December…add in the Fed still printing $40 billion every month. Don’t worry about tax increases. Don’t worry about the debt. Don’t worry about the crappy earnings and sales growth…watch the market.
So…EBAY buyable in here as it breaks out on 80% better volume.
Other breakouts were CVLT,DDD and SSYS but all have whippy charts…and dont have a great entry. Any pullbacks would be looked at.


I repeat! IF THE U.S. GOVERNMENT WERE A COMPANY, WARREN BUFFETT WOULD NOT INVEST A DIME INTO IT! Yet Mr. Buffett is out with another coordinated and timed op-ed telling Americans that taxes need to go up.

I love Warren Buffett. I love people that are always doing things for others. I love his philanthropic work. I love his quotes. In fact, I quote him often on my over-the-top, ever-popular, 8 people listening to radio show…Investors Edge…which of course, can also be listened to at www.garyk.com live M-F at 6p et. Enough of the plugs.

Mr. Buffett argues, along with others in order to help my Prez sell a plan,  that to take money out of someone’s pocket and give it to Washington DC is a good thing and life will be better because of it.. But Mr. Buffett, as one of the greatest investors ever, fails to mention WHAT FOR! In fact, Mr. Buffett fails to mention a lot of things.

Here is a lot of things.

Mr. Buffett fails to mention that the huge increase in spending was done on purpose…and to no avail. He fails to mention that total revenues into the treasury are back at their highs but spending is up over $800 billion/year since 08. He fails to mention anything about baseline budgeting where Federal spending never goes down…so when my Prez raised spending by the amount of the stimulus, that much higher number was the start for every subsequent year.

Mr. Buffett fails to mention what this “more income into the Treasury” is going to be spent on. My Prez says it is to help the middle class. Mr. Buffett says it will be to cut the deficit. Does Mr. Buffett really believe this money will be to pay down debt? Tooth fairies anyone?

Mr. Buffett fails to mention there are already tax hikes on the “privileged few” in Obamacare as well as tax hikes in states such as California.

Mr. Buffett fails to mention how poorly our taxpayer dollars are allocated. Does one really need to debate the payoffs to cronies through crappy energy companies that get taxpayer guaranteed loans? Would Mr. Buffett give Solyndra a dime of his money?

Mr. Buffett fails to mention that every large government program is now not just leaking money…but is now a tsunami of losses. Social Security…raided by the politicians and in deficits every year. Medicare and Medicaid losses as far as the eyes can see. How’s that Amtrak doing? That post office is doing really well. How’s that cost of Obamacare which has already doubled before it really starts up?

Mr. Buffett fails to mention the stimulus bill which had the government spend $800 billion of our treasure up front. How did that work out? Mr. Buffett fails to mention that we Americans were promised that a ton of that money was for infrastructure. How did that play out?

Mr. Buffett fails to mention that my Prez promised to cut the deficit in half but on purpose, pushed the deficit up almost $6 trillion in just 4 years. Are we supposed to trust that same person with more of our money?

Mr. Buffett fails to mention the trillions that have been allocated to the war on poverty throughout the years. How’s that working? Instead of getting people off food stamps, our government is actually advertising to get more people onto food stamps. How’s those poverty numbers these days?

Mr. Buffett fails to mention that still, so many of the same people who have brought us to this point…$16 trillion in debt, a lower debt rating, printing of money, 0% interest rates that only screw savers, too high unemployment, lackluster GDP…are the same people still running the show…and NOW we are supposed to believe they will get the job done?. We are NOW supposed to believe they will do something about the debt?

Finally, Mr. Buffett fails to mention that he wants us to give more money to people that have already spent the next 6 years of our taxpayer dollars…gone, history, outta here.

Sorry Mr. Buffett. These dogs don’t hunt. I have watched you through the years. You are very careful about to whom and what you allocate your capital towards. You allocate your capital to great management, sound  and profitable businesses that are run by people that are accountable to their bottom line. You have invested in great businesses like American Express, Coca-Cola, GEICO, See’s Candies, Burlington Northern and many others. Are you trying to tell us you can compare the management of our government’s bottom line to these great companies? If you did, you would be laughed at. Shouldn’t that failing enterprise prove its worthiness before asking for more of our hard earned capital?

Until change is forced upon Washington, nothing will change. Handing over more of our hard earned treasure without clear accountability is a mistake. Mr. Buffett, there is no case to give this Federal government another dime until they get their house in order. As a great investor, if the Federal Government was a company, you would not give this company a dime until THEIR house was in order. You would demand an audit of the books. You would demand new management. You would demand that every dime was accounted for. Unless, things changed, you wouldn’t even look at this company . So if you wouldn’t give this bleeding company a dime…stop asking others to.

A Minimum Tax for the Wealthy – NYTimes.com



SUPPOSE that an investor you admire and trust comes to you with an investment idea. “This is a good one,” he says enthusiastically. “I’m in it, and I think you should be, too.”

Would your reply possibly be this? “Well, it all depends on what my tax rate will be on the gain you’re saying we’re going to make. If the taxes are too high, I would rather leave the money in my savings account, earning a quarter of 1 percent.” Only in Grover Norquist’s imagination does such a response exist.

Between 1951 and 1954, when the capital gains rate was 25 percent and marginal rates on dividends reached 91 percent in extreme cases, I sold securities and did pretty well. In the years from 1956 to 1969, the top marginal rate fell modestly, but was still a lofty 70 percent — and the tax rate on capital gains inched up to 27.5 percent. I was managing funds for investors then. Never did anyone mention taxes as a reason to forgo an investment opportunity that I offered.


SOURCE:  http://www.nytimes.com



Ask any non-partisan economist how this country can begin to address its debt and deficit problem, and the answer is “raise taxes and cut spending.”

Not raise taxes OR cut spending.

Raise taxes AND cut spending.

With the federal government currently spending about 22% of GDP per year and taxes pulling in only 17% of GDP, there’s simply no way we can get the deficit under control just by cutting spending or raising taxes unless we crush the economy in the process.


SOURCE: http://finance.yahoo.com