kaltbaum premarket

Futures down decently. Today could be an important day. We had a good distribution day recently with a decent amount of names showing tops. Another one would not be good news heading into October.
 
Remember my thoughts: NOW THAT THE FED AND EVERY CENTRAL BANK HAS SHOWN THEIR HANDS, WHAT ELSE TO HELP MARKET? WE SHALL SEE.
 
Only new play right now is an ADD ON to TSCO if it breaks above 101.28. If you dont own, use a smaller position for your first purchase.
 
Otherwise…going to kick back…watch Ryder Cup and see what shows up on weekend scanning.

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Well…AMZN jumped $7…we’ll take it. made cheese on half position and keeping other. On tops of that, TSCO acting great…service owns at $93 and change and is about to break out of cup and handle pattern where you can add moving above $101.28.
 
I knew the market would rally into quarter end off of near term oversold but some of the moves are amazing. Today it was the euro again juicing things. Tomorrow? I typically dont do much on Fridays…especially at end of quarter but on top of TSCO, looking at LULU,REGN,EQIX and yes, EL and HFC again. I will have a premarket with more moves to make.
 
 

09/27/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/092718.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

On Tuesday we had a Distribution Day. Yesterday was no great shakes. And today we come back and somebody in Spain said something, the Euro rallies, the market rallies and everything’s all great again, right?

Maybe. We’ll see.

The good news is again: One day does not kill a market. And as long as the major averages stay above their recent breakout and the 10 week/50-day moving average, they are in good stead. But we do not want to see more distribution. So we will be watching closely, as we always do.

Everything that has led the market since it’s been rallying, which came back down in the past few days – went up again today. What are they?

  • The oils
  • Semiconductors
  • Financials
  • Commodities

The real story of the day is a headline that I saw from a reputable news outlet.

U.S. equity futures have rebounded following the release of disappointing economic data!

I’m not making this up. They came out a durable goods number that was recessionary. It was a recessionary number. The market rallied on it.

That’s what we have come to. Bad numbers are good because it means the Fed and the Central Banks will print more money. And when you print more money an there’s fixed asset base, asset prices go up.

That’s the story today. No complaints.

Good day today. The volume on the Nasdaq was a little bit better, but everywhere else wasn’t. But just leave no doubt about one thing when it comes to the Nasdaq. Apple (AAPL) was up 16 or 17 today. Apple was getting hit recently. Apple is a driving force on the Nasdaq-100 and you can basically overlay it.

But also Apple affects other stocks. So when Apple is coming down, other techs are coming down. When Apple goes up, other techs are going up. Just keep that in mind. Apple did not hold any specific spot. It got close to the 10-week moving average, not the 50-day. And it’s range around in here right now, but strong today.

And, of course, just remember we are heading into a major earnings season. My big worry is one-fold. I know for a fact that the numbers are not going to be that great for the market’s earnings overall. And it’s going to be interesting to see how the market reacts to that. But no doubt, there’s still a floor under the market.

You’ve got the Fed doing their thing and as long as they’re doing their thing, I think we’re okay.

One of the other wild cards, as you know, is election in November. Next week we’re going to have a debate. Right now, the poll numbers indicate that Obama has opened a really good lead and all the Vegas odds are all Obama now. The con-artists media are getting the job done no doubt. I keep asking myself a simple question. Where’s Mitt Romney? I know he’s out there and I saw a couple of speeches.

I’m sorry, he ain’t doing the job if you ask. Where are your specifics? Where’s your nasty? You gotta get passionate. You gotta get intense. You gotta get mean. You gotta dig deep.

It ain’t happening there.

And that’s how you lose elections.

And look. There’s nothing I like about President Obama. I like that he got Osama Bin Laden. But really – he’s got no economic policy that I like and I think he’s changed his stance on a few different things 15 different times. Whatever.

But if he wins, I will wish him the best of luck. And I pray that his wisdom and his decisions make this country better. Unfortunately, he has a different economic view. He believes in him and the people running government.

I believe in you guys. I believe that they work for us. We don’t work for them.

He believes that we do work for them.

What else can I tell you?  

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

FABULOUS…JUST FABULOUS!

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(Reuters) – New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods in August fell by the most in 3-1/2 years, pointing to a sharp slowdown in factory activity even as a gauge of planned business spending rebounded.

The Commerce Department said on Thursday durable goods orders dived 13.2 percent, the largest drop since January 2009, when the economy was in the throes of a recession. Orders for July were revised down to show a 3.3 percent increase instead of the previously reported 4.1 percent gain.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected orders for durable goods — items from toasters to aircraft that are meant to last at least three years — to fall 5 percent.

Last month, the drop in orders reflected weak aircraft and automobiles demand. Boeing received only one aircraft order in August, down from 260 in July, according to information posted on the plane maker’s website.

Continued

SOURCE: http://www.reuters.com

75% TAX RATES SHOULD HELP!

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The number of unemployed people in mainland France surpassed three million for the first time since 1999, new labour ministry data showed Wednesday, as French President François Hollande prepares to unveil his 2013 budget this week.

French unemployment topped three million for the first time in over a decade, data showed Wednesday, as the country faces a yawning budget gap like those plaguing its southern eurozone neighbours.

The number of jobless in mainland France swelled to 3.011 million in August, 23,900 more than in July, Labour Ministry figures showed, the first time since 1999 that the figure has breached the three million mark.

Some 4.494 million people, including some who are partially employed, have registered themselves as actively looking for work on the French mainland. This is 40,800 more than in July and a record since the ministry began collecting comparable data in 1991.

Continued

SOURCE: http://www.france24.com

HEADLINE OF THE MORNING:

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U.S. equity futures have rebounded following the release of disappointing economic data!

Yes…we are now in a time where continued bad news equals good news for the markets as markets believe there will just be more money printing whenever news is bad. There was actually talk of QE3.5 this morning. No…I am not making this up.

Durable goods numbers this morning…to be nice…were recessionary. Hopefully, it was just a one month seasonal issue…but those were some bad numbers. Pay no attention to any employment numbers right now as the next one will print 7.9% as they rig the numbers into the election. Anyone want to bet against me on that 7.9%? All they have to do is take 500,000 more people out of the workforce…and am sure they will. Still looking for that list of names who keep leaving the workforce.

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

I CANNOT WAIT TO READ THIS BOOK. DID YOU THINK THERE WAS ANYTHING DIFFERENT GOING ON?

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Tim Geithner, the US Treasury secretary, acted to shield Citigroup’s bondholders and management from accountability at the height of the financial crisis while taxpayers were left on the hook, a former US bank regulator has alleged.

Sheila Bair, who served as chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp during the crisis and its aftermath, levelled fresh attacks at Mr Geithner, the Obama administration, fellow financial regulators and bankers such as Vikram Pandit, Citi’s chief executive, in a new book that has laid bare policy disagreements of the past few years.

Continued

SOURCE: http://www.ft.com

kaltbaum premarket

Here is the headline I just read:
 
U.S. equity futures have rebounded following the release of disappointing economic data!

 
It’s almost too funny. Crappy economic data makes markets go up. Yup…there is actually some speculation of QE3.5…no I am not making this up.
 
The real story overnight is China now pulling a Bernanke…so markets are up. But for me…it is end of quarter in the next two days…and market was due to bounce. No matter what has happened in the past few days, major indices are still above their recent breakout…and more importantly, above their 50 day moving averages. If the breakout gets taken out and more importantly, the 50 day…then things get interesting…but until then, one cannot turn bearish…but one can be a little worried about the recent action.
 
Nothing to add this morning as the recent smack to the downside may change things. At the very least, it has become a tougher proposition in past days. But I will never underestimate what these central banks are doing…so again, until the 50 day gets taken out, careful about becoming overly bearish.

kaltbaum email

A few things to cover:
 
The market should bounce from here. I say this because the worst areas like the XME reversed today but more importantly, the crooks will paint the tape into the end of quarter. Of course, that is illegal so it really doesn’t happen.
 
BUT there has been internal damage with plenty of stocks getting hammered and fewer and fewer stocks working. I try not to go further than today but if the bounce is anemic, expect selling to show as indices rally back up some.
 
There is nothing to do this second…except to let this play out. I will know market is in trouble even further if markets open up strong and fade. That is a characteristic of a market getting into some trouble.
 
My other thought is not technical. My other thought is that this whole rally has been on news of money printing by everyone…even a word about it lifted markets. Now that all that news is out, what’s left? That is an interesting question going forward…
 
There are no additions tonight. Frankly, most breakouts have tucked back in while many names have been breaking. I told you to sell half the AMZN and KORS this morning…and will now watch to see if they can reassert themselves.

IS WASHINGTON NOW RUNNING THE NFL?

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Some of the replacement referees working for the NFL — the nation’s most lucrative sport — aren’t even good enough for the Lingerie Football League, it was revealed on Tuesday. 

The LFL, which fields women playing in bras and skimpy underwear, announced that it had fired several of the referees now calling prime time NFL games for ‘on-field incompetent officiating.’

The announcement came as a result of a botched decision made by the replacement refs who ‘robbed’ the Green Bay packers on victory and awarded it to the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night.

The NFL said on Tuesday that replacement referees made the wrong call by awarding a touchdown for the Seattle Seahawks at the end of Monday night’s game — but said the botched ruling, and the team’s deeply-contentious victory over the Green Bay Packers, still stands.

Continued

SOURCE: http://www.dailymail.co.uk