JUST LETTING YOU KNOW
Really nothing great came out of today. We had some distribution this week. We had a rally yesterday. As I told you, one day of Distribution does not end a rally. But as I also told you a few days ago, I think we lost the wind at our back.
I’m not so sure we have the big headwinds but it’s going to get tough. That’s my take.
Of course, that could lead to something else.
Today was a Distribution day on the Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange. So not the greatest news.
Also on top of that, we have to discuss Apple (AAPL). As I’ve been telling you, Apple, more than any other stock in a very long time, is the proxy for the market. Not just in the fact that it’s a certain percentage of the indices, but it pulls the market with it to a certain extent.
And certainly, it pulls a lot of tech and that’s why we watch it so closely.
All of a sudden, Apple this week is starting to trade wider and looser. What do I mean by that? Constructive stocks trade tightly…we’re talking tight ranges. In the past week or so, we’re starting to see days in which Apple is down 15, up 15 and today Apple was down another 15 after it was up around 17 yesterday. So I’m just putting you on notice to watch that stock right now. Granted, in about three weeks, Apple will report the quarter. Obviously the iPhone 5 came out in the quarter so they’re going to be able to book a lot of that. We’ll see. I have no idea how that’s going to come out.
By the way the CEO of Apple apologized for the new map app they put on the new iPhone 5.
Back to the today’s market…just blah. Not a lot of good. A lot of red. Not a lot of big drops. Again, when the market gets hit, it is because the Euro’s weak, the Dollar’s strong and they hit the commodities and other areas. So I will repeat it one more time. I think we lost the tail winds in the market for right now. Whether or not we get some serious headwinds…we’ll let you know.
I do want to make note of a few things:
- The major indices are still trading above their 50-day moving averages. For example, the Dow is trading 13,345. The 50-day moving average is at 13,200. The breakout was at 13,340. So we’re getting back toward that breakout. We do not want to violate it.
- For the S&P 500, the 50-day moving average is about 1417 and we closed at 1440 and 1427 was the breakout on the S&P.
- On the Nasdaq, the breakout was about 3100 and we’re at 3116. 3050 is the 50-day moving average.
- For the Nasdaq-100 was the 50-day, we’re at 2799. 2750 is the where its 50-day moving average is.
- The area that continues to be “yuck” in the major indices is the Transports. Very weak.
- The Semiconductors continue to be weak. While it’s not the most major of indices, it’s something I watch.
But guess what, as we’ve been telling you, just avoid those week areas. We pride ourselves on not just talking about the indices. We talk about what sectors are leading and what the heck to stay away from. We’ve been telling you for months to stay away from most of the Commodity areas (except the oil area that got a little better bid). We’ve been telling to stay out of the Transports and the Semiconductors. And if any else changes in any of the other areas to the good or to the bad we will let you know.
And as always…remember that it’s your money. You decide what’s best for you. We don’t want people to be blind. We want them to do work on this. We want them to look at the picture of the market and look at the fear and greed that’s going on the markets and sectors.
The good news is that a ton of you are listening and are working at it. And it is very, very good to see. So keep it up!
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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.