gary k midday

Good trade on the open in gold and silver so far…but it really doesn’t matter because tomorrow’s news will dictate policy.

But I need to tell you that if there wasn’t a chance for more QE by Bernanke tomorrow and if we were not waiting on this guy, I would be telling you these things:

Many areas of the market continue to roll over…namely all the commodity areas. The worst of is the steel,coal,metals/mining and the like. On top of that, oil stocks are now rolling over. Due to the fact that these areas were a big part of the recent move up, this bears attention. Also, Mr Market seems like this may not just be a pullback from highs. I was actually seeing a cup and handle on the weekly charts for the markets…and frankly, that pattern is still there….but the market will need mentioned areas to turn around.

I also wanted to mention that as of this second, I consider the action of 8/21 a failed breakout in the financials as they broke above resistance and immediately tucked their tail in. A few are now looking suspect. As far as leading stocks, the good news is that they are just sitting today while the market comes in.

One name recently put on service that is not thrilling is REGN…which had a clean breakout. It is not moving higher…but as long as it holds $140, we will stay with. Use a break of $140 as a stop. Also…TFM reversed hard yesterday on earnings and is following through to the downside. This stock is not on service but WFM is…somewhat of a cousin stock…so we must watch WFM carefully. So far, it is fine.

All in all, I am thinking more defensively moving into September notwithstanding Bernanke tomorrow.

kaltbaum premarket

With futures down, thought Gold would be down but nope. Use the open to sell your gold and silver. Profitable trade in both…especially the silver. Why am I selling in the service? I dont like tosses of the coin…and that’s what we have with Bernanke tomorrow. To be clear…if he announces another QE, I expect gold to soar. But I dont know what he is going to do and dont like placing bets this way. You may decide differently.
Futures down…I dont see a big reason…except market hit resistance and in the midst of pulling back. So far, pullback is no biggie.
I will not be adding anything tonight as volume is a joke and tomorrow we get to deal with one man’s whims.




One Man

What’s happened in the past 2 or 3 days? Nothing. The market’s in wait and see mode.

And it’s sickening, as a market person, to have to deal with the things we’re having to deal with. I have to tell you, when it comes to Fed, nobody ever use to talk. Alan Greenspan never used to say a thing. And every month they used to have their meeting and typically they wouldn’t do anything. The only time they would do something is if the economy went into some sort of recession.

If the economy was really slowing down, they’d lower interest rates by a quarter of point…and maybe throw in another quarter the next month…and then the next month. And then as the economy got better, they’d start raising rates to hold off inflation and that was it.

But now, for some reason the tape is has come off the months of all the Fed Heads and on top of that, we have this.

You know what I think the final outcome of all of this is. I don’t know when or where because there’s nothing they’ve ever done that hasn’t created big bubbles because all they do use more debt and leverage and fake money (printed money out of thin air).

And so what we’re waiting for is for Ben Bernanke to do a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. And the expectation is that he is going to announce more printing of dollars that he doesn’t having in order to buy bonds to lower interest rates in order to help the economy, even though the 10-year is already down 1.65 and the 30-year is at 2.76.

And as I have told you, he doesn’t care about the economy at this point in time because he can’t do anything about. His goal is just to get the market up because he thinks if the market goes up, the wealth effect will cause people to feel more rich and they’ll spend more.

But there’s a problem with all of this.

#1, he’s screwing the savers by keeping the rates at zero.

And #2, we don’t know what he’s playing with. No one can even fathom this over the top, monolithic, never before seen in history by the umpteenth power, easy money policy of zero percent rates, the outright printing of money, and manipulating and inferring with biggest market in the world – our bond market.

So we’ll see. What’s happening this week as volume is ridiculously low is:

  1. We’re heading toward Labor Day. It’s the end of the summer. It usually quiets down.
  2. Who the heck wants to commit a dime because if he Bernanke announces a couple trillion bucks, maybe the market rallies. Of maybe the market just changes and shoots a certain finger up at Ben Bernanke and goes down on that news. Or if he does nothing – who knows?

But here’s the problem. Out of the past six days, we’ve had several comments out of Fed Heads. And you what? They all contradicted each other.


  • We’ve had one say, “We’ll nothing’s going to happen just because we have to wait and see more evidence come in.”
  • Another one said, “We haven’t talked about it yet, so we have to see what happens.”
  • Another one said, “Oh yeah, we need to print more money.” (Of course, they don’t use the term “print more money” because those words make them look bad)
  • And Bernanke intimated – didn’t say – but intimated that “We’ll we’re looking at printing more money.

And that’s what everybody’s waiting for.

This is what we have to wait for.

One man.

  • A man who has never ever run a business, had a payroll, was fired, had to fire, or anything that has to do with business. Never been in the markets. Been an academic and a government hack since day one.
  • Been wrong 90% of the time.
  • Missed the whole housing crisis and only reacted after prices were already in depression.
  • Said sub-prime lending was okay – with him and Alan Greenspan.
  • And while things were in a debacle, he was saying things were contained and that the housing market would not affect the economy – until it did.
  • And what was his answer to the problems that we’re caused by too much easing and leverage and debt? MORE EASING AND LEVERAGE AND DEBT.

…because that’s all these people know. Create more money.

So we’ll see. As I have said before, I hope I’m wrong. But I have to tell you something. You see that Internet Bubble and that Housing Bubble?

What we’re seeing in the bond market is going to overshadow those bubbles, like we haven’t seen. That usually the cause and effect of what they’re doing. Of course, everything’s okay right now. Why?

Because as long as the market’s cooperating…we’re good.

But if the market blows up – we’re not good. 

So keep your fingers crossed. We are 12 years into the secular bear market and valuations have come down over those 12 years. And there is a thought process in my mind where if we can get passed these deficits and have some real serious people Washington do something about these their stupidity, that there’s another secular bull market around the corner.

These secular bear markets usually last about 13 to 16 years and we’re entering year 13 in the year 2013.

So we’re watching closely for that.

Why? Because everybody’s so depressed and they’re thinking a depression is coming. Everybody thinks we’re in a recession.

Harry Dent thinks we’re doing to 5,000 on the Dow and he’s been wrong 90% of the time also. Bill Gross, a bond guy says don’t be in equities ever.

That’s good. More and more people are selling mutual and getting the heck out of the market. That’s what happened in the late 1970s and then in 1982 we started an 18 year bull market like we’ve never seen.

So I’m counting and that we’re going to watch closely.  


6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

kaltbaum email

Aint doing nothing. Have to wait until Gentle Ben on Friday…but will probably tell you to sell the gold and silver in the morning. If the fed does nothing, gold will go down. If the fed prints more money, gold will keep going…meaning 50-50 bet…not for me. See you in the morning when I will let you know my thoughts. Need some sleep.



As part of the global push to tax the rich, Britain is now debating an “emergency” wealth tax. But the idea has hit fierce opposition from conservatives, who say the “politics of envy” hasn’t made the country rich.

Deputy Prime Minster Nick Clegg, leader of the Liberal-Democrat Party, has proposed a one-time tax on the wealth (rather than the incomes) of high-net-worth Britons. The details aren’t clear, but Clegg says the country is facing an economic war caused by a prolonged recession, and needs to tax the rich in order to avoid social unrest.



kaltbaum premarket

Real quiet as market just waits for Friday. I cannot tell you how much it irrititates me that market has to wait on this…but we are just puppets.
TFM gapping up a bit…so WFM up a little this morning. It stays on service as long as it holds 10 week/50 day.

kaltbaum email

Volume on the NYSE was like holiday trading as the market remains hostage to Mr Berschmucke on Friday. Everything on service continues to act admirably and not adding unless something really shows up. With light volume, tough to find anything. See you in the morning.



Dallas Fed President Fisher states last meeting mixed and Fed relying on key data in September; says markets addicted to QE and seeing negative effects from this; says monetary policy lulls Politicians to sleep to do work on fiscal side which is the bigger need.



Researchers found persistent users of the drug, who started smoking it at school, had lower IQ scores as adults. They were also significantly more likely to have attention and memory problems in later life, than their peers who abstained.





Ever since the current bull market began in early 2009, the most oft-cited criticism is that volume has been weak.  Even the most casual market observer has heard the complaint that rallies on light volume are unsustainable, and in effect, don’t count.  The argument sounds good in theory, but followers of this logic would have essentially missed out on what is now the ninth strongest and longest bull market (and more) in the history of the S&P 500.