KALTBAUM PREMARKET

Another planting of a story, fake or not, saves the day for the market yesterday and enables futures to be up a wee bit this morning…though NASDAQ futures down because of AAPL.
 
Forgetting the “in plain sight” fraud, markets remain in range with bias to the downside out of this range. If the range is broken to the downside, expect some nasty…regardless of the fed.
 
All this noise prevents me from shorting right now. You saw what happened yesterday in just a couple of minutes…and I refuse to walk into a fed-induced gap being short…so we sit, relax and let everyone else get carved up.
 
 
I just got in as I had early meeting and will email you midday if anything happens.
 
TRIP,AAPL,NFLX,BWLD,LO gapping down.
 
 
CAT and BA really helping DOW on open. RVBD,LL, TPX,ALXN,BRCM,JNPR gapping up.

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Last I looked, AAPL was down over $40…but futures not down much for s&p. Of course, ndx futures hit.
 
In plain sight, the %#&@ on Wall Street AGAIN float a bunch of b.s. with a few minutes to go in the market in order to save the market. Where are the cops? In any case, the market is sick here…and needs a big save. I am not so sure another round of money printing will do the trick. Keep in mind, the fed has been printing, is printing and will not stop printing. And if the market wants to go lower, it will go lower anyhow.
 
I want to see how the AAPL thing plays out tomorrow. But other than aapl, I dont like what I am seeing. I will have more in the morning.

kaltbaum at the close email

I have been asked about why the service hasnt shorted…and todays last few minutes give you a reason why. The market is simply run by the same crooks who almost brought the whole thing down in 08. Someone planted an absolutely bullshit story about the fed and the media took the bait.
LOOK AT THIS BULLSHIT HEADLINE:
“Fed officials see action if the economy doesn’t pick up soon reports the WSJ
The WSJ reports that the Fed is getting closer to taking action, and
could make “key” decisions next week or in September, including more
bond purchases, interest rate guidance, or a lower reserve rate.”
Look at the words I put in bold…NEXT WEEK OR IN SEPTEMBER.
I must tell you that this is sickening to watch. Market recovered but I must tell you…lots more damage today. Will have bigger report tonight. Sorry about the bad words but I am so pissed off at all this. I want these crooks to leave markets alone.

CHART OF THE DAY

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CISCO into the abyss. Laying people off and heading towards yearly and multi-year lows.

 

 

WE NEED RAIN…LOTS OF RAIN!

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Continued

SOURCE: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

kaltbaum premarket

Stay on your toes. I know the tape is a mess…but it will come out of it. AAPL reports after close…which may or may not move things. I do want to let you know I was at a wedding this weekend. Three people I did not know at my table started talking about AAPL stock. All agreed AAPL was definitely going to be up at least $50 on their earnings report. Well…we shall see. There is no doubt the analysts and AAPL are in collusion…sandbagging the estimates…so we shall see.
 
Futures are flattish…with AAPL bid up $5 early.

 
BIIB up $3 as earnings accelerate. PII,R,UA,BIDU gapping up. VMW,UPS,WHR,VLTR,SIAL and all the FOR PROFIT SCHOOLS are gapping down.

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I wish I had some words tonight but dont. The tape is a mess…but I dont trust either side. For sure, more and more names toast…but overall, market just rangebound. We head into eand of month now where I suspect the crooks do their thing. But also, tomorrow is AAPL which will be a market mover. AAPL has sandbagged once again with the help of the crooked analysts…but that doesn’t mean all will go well. Continuing to keep powder dry as traders are being carved up.

07/23/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/072318.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Aurora, Colorado

There were a couple things I thought about this weekend.

The first was those people that jumped on other people to protect them from the bullets and took a bullet for others. Think about that. You’re at a movie and out of nowhere, somebody’s shooting. And your first thought and your first decision is to protect others. Some of them weren’t even loved ones. An amazing story of courage.

And, of course at the same time, an amazing story of cowardice.

And they can plead insane – you name it. This guy planned it out. He’s evil. He’s a coward. He’s a punk. And I don’t know where else to go with this except to say, make sure you hug your children.

The Markets

Needless to say, it was a market that was trying to move above a little resistance and failed miserably. And now the market has tucked its head back into a trading range like a frightened turtle. As you know, even in the move up, I told my radio listeners that I did not like what was driving the move: Food, Drug, Beverages, Tobacco, Household products, Utilities, Telecom utilities, municipal bond funds, and REITs.

These are your defensive issues and believe the Big Money crowd is not investing there.  I believe they’re parking money there.

Just remember. Most of the Big Boys have to be 95% invested at a minimum and have very little cash. So we can recognize when they’re selling risk to buy into defensive, by watch the action. Typically, it is not good news. Typically, when defensive issues are being bought up, it is forecasting something not so good such as slow downs in the economy and outright recessions. And many times it is presage of a pretty good downturn .

 I also told you on the move up, it was the worst areas, like the Oil and Semiconductors, where it felt like there was a lot short-covering.

I also told you, at the same time, a lot of growth names were breaking down. But major average remained range bound.

So fast forward to Friday and today…and nothing but gross.

Today could have been a lot worst. We opened down huge and got back a little more than half of it.

Be careful, though. There are many who would say, ooh…we got back a lot of the down move today and that’s good news. I’m not so sure.

Chipotle and Intuitive Surgical

Chipotle (CMG) was down around 90 on Friday and down another 11 today. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) was down about 45 and was down another 21 today.

I want to explaine to you how things work when a ”leading name that has to be owned” in which “nothing can ever go wrong” – goes wrong.  Listen carefully.

All stocks have a life cycle. You never know how long. But studies have shown that most big leaders will last for about 9 to 15 months.  But, of course, there’s occasions where an Apple (AAPL) has gone from 15 up to 600. And, of course, in the 1990s you had a few technology names that went up monumentally throughout those years. But all things do come to an end. You never know when. And typically they come to an end, almost the same way. So listen up:

Near the end, nobody thinks anything can go wrong. These are the big leaders. “Teflon stocks” for lack of a better word.

A stock goes through a life where it’s going up and up and up. All things are well in good. Chipotle came out at around 45 and initially ran to 150. Then came the bear market in 2008 and that took it down to 37 again.

Since the low in 2008, it went up almost 450 on the back of continuing to open stores around the country and elsewhere and with decent same store sales. And throughout that process, the Big Money crowd kept adding and adding…until they own everything.

And right when Chipotle reported their numbers, I saw that the Fidelity Contra Fund had 2.5 million of 31 million shares. And many other funds owned the stock as well. These are growth funds and they are also known as momentum funds.

They will ride something until death. But there’s usually a few months of distribution where the stock is held up even though you seeing signs of selling. And analysts are saying don’t worry, everything’s okay.

…Until finally they report a number they report a number that, for whatever reason, the market hates. And if you look at Chipotle, it topped out in April on big volume. They rallied it up on no volume. Dropped again and then sat around for many weeks, bumping its head above the 50-day moving average and then below.

But then something happened. On 6/27 and 6/28, the stock got schmered from 415 to 370 on very heavy volume. So already it was starting to underperform some. And it stated trading what I called wide and loose.

What happened then? The market got a little better. It rallied up on no volume. Saw a couple upgrades a couple weeks before earnings. And then the market didn’t like earnings and the stock closed at 405 and opened at 345 and finished at 320 and it’s now 306.

You know what that action is over the course of Friday and today? All these big guys with that stock knew they had to get out. Because once a growth stock tops and tops for good – it doesn’t come  back 90% of time.

And, of course, the same thing happened to Intuitive Surgical. 

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

THERE’S GOLD IN THEM THERE PANS!

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No soup kitchen for this beggar. Shane Warren Speegle told Oklahoma City police he made $60,000 panhandling last year.

“Why would I go get a job?” he said to an officer who approached him earlier this month, according to KOCO.com.

Speegle, 45, carried a 4-foot-by-4-foot sign requesting money for travel and food at an Oklahoma City intersection, noted DigitalJournal.com. A cop warned him that he couldn’t panhandle without a license, but Speegle suggested that a $200 daily permit was within his means, KOCO.com reported.

Continued

SOURCE: http://www.huffingtonpost.com

AS SOON AS THE MARKET IS HIT, THE QE TALK RAMPS UP

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Who are they trying to kid? Thinking about it? Of course they are going to print more money…because they are insane.

The recent slowdown in US economic growth is forcing the Federal Reserve to consider something for which it has always set the bar very high: a third round of quantitative easing.

A decision on whether to launch another round of asset purchases remains in the balance as the central bank wrestles with a complicated economic outlook and uncertainty about the costs and benefits of its easing tools.

Continued

SOURCE: http://www.ft.com