05/31/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/053118.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

We Had a Wicked Day in the Market

Very bad early. Then, right toward the close, the market was ripping and then I don’t know what the heck happened. They slammed it back down by the close.

The story of the day, was that wicked action toward the close. The Dow, at one time today, was at a low of 12,316, so that’s 77 points lower than where we finished. The Dow was down 103. The Nasdaq, at one time today, hit 2801. So that Nasdaq was down about 36. The Nasdaq-100 hit 2507, so the Nasdaq-100 was down 30. So it was a good comeback.

But, on the other end of the spectrum, there was a pretty good drop at the close.

At 3:40p EST, the Dow hit 12,490 which is 97 points higher than the close. The Dow was up 71 at 3:40p EST…just sank like a stone into the close. I have no idea what happened. But they hit it and hit it good to finish with the Dow down net 26.

At one time today, the Nasdaq was actually got to be up 5 before finishing down net 10.

Some were saying, oh it’s rebalancing end of month. I don’t know.

Tomorrow is the Fake Unemployment Number

It is so full of caca, I don’t know where to start. It has become a political number. They are arbitrarily taking millions of people out of the workforce to make the unemployment number look better and it’s almost laughable to me.

I’m waiting to hear one journalist say to the labor secretary, who’s usually on, on the day of the unemployment number:

“Hey, do you have that list of the millions of people that are out of the workforce now that has enabled us to be at 8.1% unemployment? That if they were actually still looking we’d be in the 10% area?”

“Where is that list?”

But they don’t ask that question. They just go by the number.

I just don’t buy it. I believe it’s rigged. The employment situation has gotten a little bit better, but tepidly so. Tomorrow, I believe the expectations are for the unemployment rate to stay at 8.1%.

Here are the Most Important Things to Pay Attention to

  1. The market remains in corrective mode. That corrective mode is of unknown price and time. We can never predict. What we just want to do is to try to look for clues that the market is trying to turn or do better…and then take it from there.
  2. As of this second, the only thing I can tell you right now is that at some support levels, the market was again defended today. For certain areas to the penny.

Support Levels

  • The Dow. 12,300. A break below 12,300 would not be good news.
  • The S&P 500 held 1300. The low as 1292 a couple weeks ago, so I call it the 1292 to 1300 area. By the way, 200-day moving average is really just below all this.
  • The Nasdaq. The low of the past couple weeks was 2774 and held that 2800 area. I call support 2775  to 2800.
  • The Nasdaq-100. I’m calling support at 2475 to 2500.
  • The Russell 2000. I’m going to call support 745 to 750.
  • The Semiconductor Index looks like vomit.
  • The Midcap 400 held a higher low today. The low was at 905 and hit only 913 today which doesn’t mean that much. 

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

A HOUSING BEAR MARKET THAT WOULD LAST AT LEAST 10 YEARS

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I have been telling anyone who would listen that we were in a housing bear market that would last at least 10 years. Throughout the past few years, many have argued against this bear market.

I thank the BIG PICTURE website. It is self-explanatory.

2006

Housing Turnaround? Home Sales Up in March (ABC News, April 25, 2006)

Home builders see bottom of housing slump (CNN, December 5, 2006)

New home sales: Back from the dead? (CNN, December 27, 2006)

Read Between All Those For-Sale Signs (NYT, August 27, 2006)

“the latest housing numbers seem like they could be a turning point.”

“Perhaps the biggest reason to be skeptical about a real estate crash is that the country has not really suffered through one before”

New Signs of Cooling in Housing (NYT, August 24, 2006)

“While prices are sliding, most economists are still predicting that they will not fall very far.”

NAR’s Existing Home Sales & Prices (TBP, November 2006)

Greenspan Says `Worst’ May Be Past in U.S. Housing (Bloomberg, October 6, 2006)

“Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, a former top adviser to Greenspan, also said this week that while he doesn’t know how long and deep the housing slump will be, it probably won’t sink the U.S. economy into a recession.”

“Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the ‘worst may well be over’ for the U.S. housing industry”

Home builders see bottom of housing slump (CNN, December 5, 2006)

“The year-long slump in the housing market may be near a bottom, say home builders”

New home sales: Back from the dead? (CNN, December 27, 2006)

“David Seiders, the chief economist with the National Association of Home Builders, agreed that the supply of homes on the market is still too high to say that the report signaled a recovery, yet he’s encouraged by the solid sales pace in this report. ‘What I’ve been looking for is stabilization, that’s what I’m reading from this,’ he said’”

2007

U.S. Realtors see gradual existing-home sales rise (Reuters, February 7, 2007)

“U.S. existing-home sales have likely hit bottom and should gradually rise this year”

IMF believes US housing market may bottom out (Reuters, April 11, 2007)

“The IMF’s forecast for another year of strong growth, with some risks, is based on the notion that the U.S. housing market will bottom out and a slowdown in U.S. capital spending will be reversed, a senior IMF official said on Wednesday.”

Housing Market Nears Bottom (Forbes, May 25, 2007)

“The housing market is about to hit bottom.”

Hovnanian Chief Says Housing Bottom Is `Very Near’ (Update6) (Bloomberg, September 14, 2007)

“Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Chief Executive Officer Ara Hovnanian said the U.S. housing market is near the bottom”

Housing Predictor Reports U.S. Real Estate Turnaround (RISMedia, May 22, 2007)

“More than half of the nation’s housing markets are appreciating or have at least stabilized, according to a special report by Housing Predictor”

“Housing Predictor expects foreclosures to continue to increase throughout the remainder of the year, and level off toward the end of 2007 as more investors purchase properties.”

Sales & Volume Begin to Flatten Out! (Peterson Realty April 2, 2007)

“Barnstable County Register of Deeds, John F. Meade, reports that the volume of real estate sales in March 2007 was down 1.1% from March 2006 volume and the total value of sales was down 1.25% from the previous year.”

Whoops! Another 2009 turnaround estimate (Arizona Real Estate Notebook, July 25, 2007)

“Although it is for the new home market, RL Brown’s new estimate is the market won’t turn around until 2009.”

“Brown expects the market to remain at the same level in 2008 before beginning its rebound in 2009.”

Real Estate Outlook: Will Housing Turn Around? (Realty Times, December 31, 2007)

“outlook from Dr. Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors: ‘The broad trend over the coming year will be gradual rise in existing home sales, but because sales are exceptionally low for the final months of 2007, total sales for 2008 will only be modestly higher than for 2007.’”

“Dr. David Seiders, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, had this to say: Our ‘housing forecast shows systematic improvements in home sales by the second quarter of 2008?”

2008

NAR Housing Market “Bottoms” (TBP, January 2008)

Florida Real Estate Market Reached Bottom in 2007; Market Expected to Recover from ‘Indigestion’ (Reuters, January 7, 2008)

‘The market has some indigestion now, but housing markets will return to normal during the next few years’

U.S. Home Sales to Reach Bottom in 2008, Bankers Say (Update3) (Bloomberg, January 14, 2008)

“U.S. existing home sales will reach a bottom in 2008”

Zell Sees Start of Housing Recovery in the Spring (CNBC, February 26, 2008)

“The US economy will avoid recession as the housing market begins to recover this spring, according to billionaire investor Sam Zell.”

WSJ Confuses Seasonality with Recovery: How Counter-Productive is Realtor Association Spin? (TBP March 25th, 2008)

Wave of Foreclosures Drives Prices Lower, Lures Buyers (WSJ March 25, 2008)

Existing Home Sales, Non Seasonally Adjusted, Explained (TBP, March 25th, 2008)

Bottom’s Up: This Real-Estate Rout May Be Short-Lived (Barron’s, July 14, 2008)

“This real-estate rout has been more painful than prior ones, but it may be shorter-lived. Indeed, there are early signs of recovery.”

“Yet, such pessimism appears overdone, based on much recent data. Sales of existing homes are showing tentative signs of increasing, while the plunge in prices likely is nearing an end”

“Still other numbers suggest prices are close to bottoming.”

“‘Every time this has happened before, housing-market activity has rebounded within a quarter and caught experts by surprise,’ Chip Case says.”

“Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist of Wells Fargo’s primary investment unit, expects home prices to steady by year end, with the pace of foreclosures slackening shortly.”

“the available data suggest the scary dive in home prices soon will be over.”

Cramer Calls the Housing Bottom (CNBC, August 27, 2008)

“The economy will never recover if housing doesn’t find its footing first. But when will that happen? Cramer said he expects a bottom by the third quarter of 2009.”

Real Estate Markets Most Likely To Rebound (Forbes, October 29, 2008)

2009

Commercial Real Estate Market to Hit Bottom Next Year, Urban Land Institute (Realty Times, January 7, 2009)

“The cyclical real estate markets always comes back, and they will this time too, but not anytime soon,’ said Tim Conlon, partner and U.S. real estate”

“real estate industry experts expect financial and real estate markets in the United States to bottom in 2009 and then flounder for much of 2010, with ongoing drops in property values, more foreclosures and delinquencies, and a limping economy that will continue to crimp property cash flows”

U.S. Housing Market May Bottom in 2009, Zandi Says (Bloomberg, February 9, 2009)

Home Price Bottom Predicted by Year End (The Truth About Mortage, February 9, 2009)

“The good news is that a home price bottom is expected by year-end, according to one of the nation’s most respected economists.”

“Since their peak in 2006, home prices have fallen about 25 percent, per a Moody’s Economy.com report issued today, but the end may be near.”

“But with home prices falling to more affordable levels and homebuilder inventory sliding to more appropriate positions, stabilization is within reach.”

Home-builder shares jump as February new home sales increase (Marketwatch, March 25, 2009)

Real Estate–What Recovers First? (Forbes, March 18, 2009)

Existing Homes Surprise: Sales Turn Up, Prices Firm (IBD, 3/23/2009)

Signs of life emerging in housing sector (MSNBC, April 7, 2009)

“ ‘Are we at the bottom?’ asks Christopher Thornberg, an economist with Beacon Economics. ‘We are getting close.’’’

“But after a three-year bust, it’s a sign that some markets might be moving in the right direction.”

Real Estate Outlook: A Turnaround May Be In Sight (Realty Times, April 14, 2009)

“We’re past the rock bottom of the down cycle for real estate and now we’re moving into recovery mode.”

“Mortgage applications for purchases of resale and new homes were up again — eight percent for applications using conventional loans, and a remarkable 17 percent gain in applications to buy houses using low-downpayment FHA mortgages.”

“The report quoted Paula Hellenbrand, president of the Cape Coral Florida Association of Realtors, who predicted an end to inventory problems on the near horizon.”

Greenspan Sees ‘Seeds of a Bottoming’ in U.S. Housing (Bloomberg, May 12, 2009)

“ ‘We are finally beginning to see the seeds of a bottoming’ in the housing industry, Greenspan said today during a conference of the National Association of Realtors in Washington. The U.S. is ‘at the edge of a major liquidation’ in the stock of unsold properties, which may help to stabilize prices, Greenspan said.”

U.S. home market shows ‘encouraging’ signs (USA Today, July 24, 2009)

“Home sales rose for the third-consecutive month in June, a promising sign that stability in the housing market could help jump-start the economy.”

U.S. Economy: Home Prices Rise, Confidence Declines (Bloomberg, July 28, 2008)

“ ‘The fact that home prices may be finding some semblance of stability is good news that things are not likely to get worse,’ said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina.”

Home prices show signs of stabilizing in May (AP, July 28, 2009)

“Home prices in May posted their first monthly increase since the summer of 2006, indicating prices are finally stabilizing, data Tuesday showed.”

“The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 major cities rose 0.5 percent from April, but was still 17.1 percent below May a year ago. “

U.S. housing starts keep recovery hopes alive (Reuters, August 18, 2009)

“ ‘The economy is recovering, this is the turning corner. We will have positive growth this quarter, but not a lot of strength. It very much looks like a U-shaped recovery rather than V-shaped,’ said Kurt Karl, head of economic research at Swiss Re in New York.”

Slowly but surely, economy shows signs of recovery (USA Today, August 28, 2009)

“…a nationwide phenomenon: signs of life in the battered housing market and the overall economy.”

“Housing prices rose 2.9% from the first quarter to the second — the first quarterly increase in three years”

Commercial Real Estate Recovery Second-Half 2010 according to Jones Lang LaSalle’s U.S. National Economic & Property Outlook (The Paramus Post, November 19, 2009)

“Commercial real estate markets across the nation already have experienced the steepest pace of declines for the majority of sectors and geographies.”

“While 2010 will be the year a global commercial real estate recovery begins, robust, broad-based growth is not expected until 2011.”

2010

Mortgage Trends Show Real Estate Stability (Wall Street Geek, January 20, 2010)

“The real estate market appears to be steadying based on mortgage activity trends”

In hard-hit markets, some see signs of bottom (MSNBC, January 29, 2010)

“ ‘The epicenter of the boom and bust will be the leaders of the recovery,’ said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. ‘Those three regions went through a big boom and a big bust and I think they overcorrected and are making solid gains compared to the rest of the country.’ He sites multiple bids on lower priced properties, prices beginning to stabilize and inventory levels coming down as evidence that the bottom is in sight.”

Housing Starts in U.S. Increased 2.8% in January, Permits Fell (Bloomberg, February 17, 2010)

“Housing starts in the U.S. rose in January to a higher level than anticipated, a sign that government support is helping to stabilize the real estate market.”

Home prices rise 0.3 percent in Dec. (The Washington Times, February 23, 2010)

“Home prices rose for the seventh straight month in December, a sign of price stability as the U.S. housing market continues its bumpy road to recovery.”

Warren Buffett sees housing market bouncing back by 2011 (USA Today, March 1, 2010)

“Billionaire Warren Buffett said the U.S. will recover from the residential real estate slump by 2011 as demand for houses catches up with the supply that accumulated during the bubble.”

Housing Real-Estate Recovery Signaled as Fed Unwinds (Update1) (Bloomberg, March 15, 2010)

“ ‘I would bet even odds that we’re at a bottom and that we’re going to see improvement in the coming months,’ said Karl Case, co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and a professor of economics at Wellesley College in Wellesley, Massachusetts.”

Turnaround Coming for Real Estate? (Seeking Alpha, April 9, 2010)

“This also provides more confirmation that the real estate market has bottomed and may even be improving.”

“A year ago the prices of asset-backed securities such as these were priced to Armageddon—to the expectation of truly massive defaults nationwide. Now they are priced to merely difficult conditions, but that represents a huge improvement.”

Wasn’t commercial real estate supposed to crash? (CNNMoney, June 8, 2010)

“Peter Roberts, Chief Executive Officer of the Americas for property giant Jones Lang LaSalle believes commercial property values are in the process of bottoming out and will get to the ground floor by early 2011.”

Real estate market primed for turnaround (Savannah Now, December 30, 2010)

” ‘Once the current oversupply of inventory is absorbed, the real estate market should turn around very quickly,’ said Harvey Gilbert of Gilbert and Lattimore. ‘It’s really just a matter of when.’ “

2011

U.S. housing bottom seen in mid-2011: poll (Reuters, January 28, 2011)

“U.S. house prices are likely to continue to slide before bottoming out sometime in the middle of this year but will rise just over two percent in 2011 as a whole, according to economists polled by Reuters.”

“Asked when they see a bottom for U.S. house prices, 14 of 26 economists said they would trough in either the second or third quarter of 2011. Three saw the bottom coming as early as this quarter, while one did not see a bottom until the first three months of 2014.”

“Sales of U.S. new homes raced to their highest level in eight months in December, but gains were driven by a surge in the West. Even with last month’s gain, new-home sales are down 75 percent from their peak of 1.283 million-unit pace in 2005.”

Why the Housing Bottom Might Be Here (U.S. News, February 2, 2011)

“Yet home buyers are tiptoeing back into the market, amid an increasing number of signs that the fifth year of the housing bust might be the last.”

Will Real Estate Turn Around in 2011? (Outer Banks Market Report, March 2, 2011)

“a bottom is close”

“The OBX – a strong real estate market getting stronger in 2011?! The magic 8-ball seems to be pointing to yes.”

Monthly Housing Market Trends Point in a Positive Direction (Yahoo! News, June 14, 2011)

‘Home sales activity appears to be coming back in line with the seasonal trends we would expect to see this time of year,’ said RE/MAX CEO Margaret Kelly. ‘It’s a very good sign that prices are starting to rise on a monthly basis. This may indicate that we’ve turned the corner and are headed in a positive direction.’

Home Prices In U.S. Showed Signs Of Stabilizing (Bloomberg, August 30, 2011)

“Residential real estate prices in the U.S. decreased in the year ended in June at a slower pace than in the prior month, a sign the market may be stabilizing.”

“The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities fell 4.5 percent from June 2010, after a 4.6 percent drop in the 12 months ended May that was the biggest since 2009, the group said today in New York. The median forecast of 31 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a 4.6 percent decline.”

Housing market predictions for 2012 (CBS News, December 7, 2011)

“But in a surprising turnaround, Fannie Mae’s November National Housing Survey found that homeowners believe that their home value will rise 0.2 percent over the next year.”

“Looking forward, the biggest indication that the housing market might begin to normalize is that the number of homeowners who are seriously delinquent in their loan payments is shrinking.”

Is housing bouncing back? (The Washington Post, December 20, 2011)

“The deeply depressed housing sector finally seems to have found its bottom — and may even be starting to bounce back.”

2012

Has The Housing Market Hit Its Bottom? (Forbes, January 10, 2012)

“Wall Street firms have optimistically been betting that the bottom’s here. Research firms like Zelman & Associates predict the sector will pick up this year and hedge funds have been jumping into real estate-related investments from brick and mortar building purchases to shares of home builders stocks.”

Homeownership rates fall to 66% as downturn nears a bottom (USA Today, February 1, 2012)

“ ‘The trend is down, and there are few, if any, signs in the numbers that a turning point is close at hand,’ says David Blitzer, chairman of S&P’s index committee.”

Ready to Rebound (Barron’s, March 19, 2012)

“After falling 34% over the past six years, U.S. home prices will soon bottom.”

Has the Housing Market Finally Hit Bottom? (Time, April 27, 2012)

“The information superhighway is littered with the corpses of pundits who have erroneously called the ‘bottom’ of the real estate market, but hope springs eternal. This week produced two reports which have analysts optimistic that we’ve reached that point.”

Mortgage-Bond Bigwig Lewis Ranieri Calls Housing Bottom (U.S. News, May 7, 2012)

“The housing market has reached bottom, according to mortgage bond pioneer Lewis Ranieri, joining a growing chorus of other expert voices who say the long slog downward might finally be coming to an end.”

Report: Housing Market Recovery Has Officially Begun (TIME May 15, 2012)

“A new analysis suggests that home prices will begin to rise later this year.”

“The double-digit increases in U.S. housing prices over the first half of the past decade proved unsustainable. But the freefall is over. The point has been reached where housing prices will start to climb, albeit at single-digit rates in most markets over the next five years.”

“The Demand Institute’s report is one of the most comprehensive and substantive arguments we’ve seen yet that the housing market is nearing the light at the end of the tunnel.”

Housing starts add to recovery signs (Reuters, May 16, 2012)

A rebound in groundbreaking for homes in April suggested the housing market recovery was gaining some traction, even though permits for future building fell.”

Buyer alert: Rising prices ahead (Boston.com, May 22, 2012)

“We are primed for a home price turnaround in Greater Boston and across Massachusetts.”

“That’s the verdict from Tim Warren, chief executive of The Warren Group, after the release this morning of home sales and price numbers for April by his Boston-based real estate data firm and publisher.”

April new-home sales increase 3.3%, pointing to recovery (Detroit Free Press, May 24, 2012)

“Americans bought more new homes last month, the latest evidence that the U.S. housing market could be starting to recover.”

“The gain pushed the annual sales pace to its second-highest level in two years. Economists were encouraged by the increase but cautioned that new homes are still selling at half the rate consistent with healthy markets.”

Real estate could be on the rebound (DelMaravnow May 27, 2012)

“the national market, which saw sale prices in April jump nearly 5 percent higher than the same month last year, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. The number of homes sold was up nearly 10 percent, too.”

Housing Market May Finally Be Turning Around With Sales Up 10 Percent In April (Huffington Post, May 28, 2012)

Housing Prices Show Signs of Stability (Wall Street Journal, May 29, 2012)

“Sinking prices have made a mockery of their exhortations, but the S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 major cities is showing signs of stabilizing.”

“But if prices really are turning the corner, that has positive implications for banks’ and consumers’ balance sheets.”

U.S. Home Prices: Has the Tide Turned? (ABC News, May 29, 2012)

“Average home prices rose in March compared with February in most of the 20 cities in a Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller survey out today – the first time in seven months there’s been a gain. This report adds to the growing evidence that the worst of the five-year housing slump appears to be over.”

Home prices at post-bubble lows but may point to market stability (LA Times, May 29, 2012)

“Home prices in the U.S. ended the first quarter at their lowest point since the housing crisis, with values in 20 major cities dropping 2.6% in March compared with the same period a year earlier.”

“Analysts believe the data could signal stability in the turbulent housing market, if not a nascent turnaround.”

The Housing Bottom Is Here (Business Insider, May 29, 2012)

“The headline sequential gain for the 20-city composite was just 0.09%, bit below the 0.2% that analysts had expected. But it’s obvious: Housing is bottoming.”

“As S&P’s David Blitzer said on CNBC today: Housing is ‘a whole lot better than the headlines’”

“The bottom line: Every single measure out there is showing gains price gains.”

S&P: Home Prices See New Bottom, Recovery On Deck (Reverse Mortgage Daily, May 29, 2012)

“The rate of decline has moderated, however, suggesting that a recovery is near.”

SO…JUST TAKE BACK OUR MONEY!

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The luxury carmaker Fisker Automotive continues to signal it could ditch plans to build its next generation hybrid electric vehicle in the United States, despite the nearly $200 million in Obama administration loan money it has already received.

Fisker received federal funds in part to help purchase a shuttered General Motors plant in Delaware, where it predicted it would one day employ 2,000 auto workers to assemble the clean-burning gas-electric family car, known as the Atlantic.

Continued

SOURCE: http://abcnews.go.com

MARKET DEFENDED AGAIN AT SUPPORT INTO TOMORROW’S FAKE JOB’S NUMBER

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Stripping away all the nonsense and all the blah blah blah, major indices are again holding support into tomorrow’s fake job’s number. All bets are off as it will be the reaction that matters. So…going into tomorrow, the market has been nothing more than a bout of nausea. Foreign markets have been much worse than the U.S.

During today’s action:

  • The Dow held just above the 12,300 level for the 3rd time.
  • The S&P continues to hold the 1292-1300 level.
  • The NASDAQ continues to hold the 2775-2800 area. 
  • The NDX continues to hold the 2475-2500 area.
  • The RUSSELL 2000 continues to hold the 745-750 area.

As long as these areas hold, the market has a chance. A break below will just add another leg down into the all-important, longer-term 200 day moving average. Keep in mind, the NYSE is already below because of its heavy energy component, which has just melted down.

Other notes:

The XLF held the 200 day today. As financials go, the markets usually go. The XLF has held this area 3 times in past weeks and every time…to the penny. I cannot begin to tell you how important it is for the financials to get some footing for the market to go higher.

Keep in mind, there has been a lot of technical damage done in recent weeks….and in most areas of the market.

These areas continue to lead:

  • Discount retailers as names like Dollar Tree, Tjx, Rost Stores, Family Dollar and Wal mart are leading.
  • Airlines are strong as the price of oil continues to croak. By the way, why isn’t Obama investigating speculators for pushing the price of oil down?
  • Housing remains relatively strong but may be in the midst of basing in here. This group reversed up nicely today.
  • Defensive issues continue to outperform…foods,drugs,beverages and household products continue to get good money flows.

We now sit back and wait to hear the overrated fake unemployment number that is being moved around based on politics. I am still looking for the list of millions of names that supposedly have left the work force in order to have the unemployment figure lower than it should be.

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

NOT SURE I WOULD KEEP MY MONEY THERE!

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(Reuters) – Spaniards alarmed by the dire state of their banks are squirreling money abroad at the fastest rate since records began, figures showed on Thursday, and the credit ratings of eight regions were cut.

Spain is the next country in the firing line of the euro zone’s debt crisis, with spendthrift regions and shaky banks threatening to blow a hole in state finances and pushing funding costs towards levels that signal the need for a bailout.

Continued

SOURCE: http://www.reuters.com

HEARTWARMING STORY OF THE DAY!

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A 9-year-old Massachusetts boy who earned an all-expenses-paid Disney World vacation through an innovative Facebook experiment gave the trip away to the family of a soldier killed in Afghanistan.

Brendan Haas created the “Soldier for a Soldier” Facebook page in February. Inspired by the story of the guy who, through a series of trades, turned a paper clip into a house, Haas started with a toy soldier and eventually traded up to $900 worth of Disney gift certificates, airfare and hotel credits.

Continued

SOURCE: http://news.yahoo.com

HEY MAYOR…THEY WILL JUST BUY TWO…

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NEW YORK (CBSNewYork) — Every single menu in New York City could soon be getting a major overhaul if Mayor Michael Bloomberg has his way.

The man behind calorie counts is set to announce a new public health initiative to battle obesity, taking aim at super-sized sugary drinks.

Continued

SOURCE: http://newyork.cbslocal.com

05/30/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/053018.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

100% Within the Rules, But What About Ethics?

Facebook was down another .72 to 28.10 today. And there was late news today, as follows:

NEW YORK – Morgan Stanley (MS) Chairman and Chief Executive James Gorman defended the securities firm’s role in Facebook Inc.’s (FB) tumultuous initial public offering, telling employees internally that the firm worked “100% within the rules” and calling the steep decline in Facebook’s stock “disappointing.”

Gorman, in a weekly strategy meeting Tuesday, which was later webcast to employees, said “speculation of nefarious activity” surrounding the social networking company’s IPO is untrue. Contrary to some reports, he said, he wasn’t “aware of any dissent” among the underwriting firms regarding Facebook’s IPO price of $38 a share. Continued

Later…I read the following:

…the SEC’s review of Facebook’s IPO suggested technical failures and not rule violations, according to a report. And the SEC may propose new rules to delay trading when future IPOs are priced… Continued

Well, they’re both right. What, no violations? No I don’t think so. In fact, I disagree with the people that are suing, saying that the information about the slowdown in Facebook earnings wasn’t out quick enough. In fact, I read you this information on my radio show before Facebook came public.

That’s where I stop being nice

You see, what the Morgan Stanley CEO forgets is that nobody gives a frying crap about whether they worked within the rules on doing this initial public offering. What people care about is the ethics and lack of fiduciary responsibility when bringing public a company with a $100 billion market cap – that has less than $4 billion in revenues.

What about that Mr. Morgan Stanley CEO? What about giving a hoot about the investing public, instead of your fees and trying to amass the highest price possible, leaving not one crumb left over for the investing public? What about that Mr. Morgan Stanley CEO?

You see, Mr. Morgan Stanley CEO, forget the rules! Logic, ethics and fiduciary responsibility says, YOU STINK!  Mr. Morgan Stanley CEO…part of your job is to just do the right thing.

That’s all.

Just do the right thing.

Because I’ve got news for you Mr. CEO of Morgan Stanley. If you took the name Facebook off of this IPO and just had any ordinary company come public that has less than $4 billion in revenues and their earnings were declining and sales were slowing…hmm let me see what valuation you would put on that.

$20 billion? Maybe.

BUT NO…you wanted $100 billion.

Now let me tell you why you did it, Mr. CEO of Morgan Stanley. Because you have other companies coming public and you want the highest price possible. You want to create a bubble like you did in 1999.

You did not learn any lessons from 1999 – not to screw the public.

Instead,  you screwed the public again.

There’s only one bit of good news coming out of this. Yeah, the investing public got screwed a little bit.

But you got screwed worse Mr. Morgan Stanley CEO. Because your credibility is SHOT. My thoughts on you are SHOT. And maybe just maybe, your stock price down at 13 bucks is telling you that your ethics and fiduciary capability is shot.

What are the repercussions of your greed?

You’re being sued.

Secondly, your credibility is shot.

Kayak.com

Thirdly, we enter Kayak.com. Kayak.com is delaying is IPO. Guess who is the underwriter of the Kayak.com IPO? MORGAN STANLEY.

So take your rules and stick’em.

I care about the investing public.

You don’t.

A $100 billion market cap? I’m just this little guy on radio. Under the radar. And I was on my show every day saying $100 billion cap, are you sick in the mind? Doesn’t valuation matter to these people?

I KNEW. PEOPLE THAT ACTUALLY READ THE NUMBERS KNEW.

Anyway maybe Mr. Morgan Stanley CEO. Maybe you’ll learn a lesson this time. But I doubt it.

Facebook is at 28.10 and as I’ve told you, if I had to slap a valuation on this sucker…$15. Maybe. Doesn’t mean it goes there. Not a prediction…just putting a little reality into the numbers.  

I’m not here to be right. I’m just here to help you guys and to make sure you don’t ever get caught up in the touting and the hype. Because even right here, it still has an $80 billion market cap. And who would pay $80 billion for a company that has less than $4 billion in revenues…with sales slowing and their earnings declining???

I don’t know who would pay it, but I certainly know who would sell it to you.

Mr. CEO OF MORGAN STANLEY!!!!

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

05/29/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/052918.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Imperative

The most important thing I do here is to get you to understand the “downside” and how to protect yourself from the downside. And what are the indicators of the downside. And to never ever, ever, ever lose big.

How many times have I said that to you? Several million?

Well I bring that up today for two reasons:

Reason #1: Facebook

As you know, I told you on my radio show, I had no idea how the stock would open because it was just a guess. I told you on this show though, that the valuation was an utter joke. That would have brought it public 25% lower in price and 25% fewer shares. I also told you that, if I had to put a valuation on it, it would be $15. And that’s not a prediction because I have no idea and if the stock starts acting well and things go good for the company, I’ll be looking at it.

The stock was down another 3 to 28.84, which is surprising the heck out of me. This very important, over the top IPO opened at 38.00 and is now 28.84!

Wow! Amazing.

Lesson #1: Valuation matters. Hype doesn’t.

Lesson #2: READ THE NUMBERS! I read to you the numbers on my radio show. I told you the last three quarters earnings were up 83%…up 17% and DOWN 9%. I read to you a $100 billion market cap with less than $4 billion in sales and compared it to the Googles and the others.

But I had no idea, I’d be doing this,

There’s going to be a lot of lawsuits because the losses now are pretty big.

Reason #2 Research In Motion

The stock has now gone from 148 down to 11.23. After the close, Research in Motion announced a huge loss. Estimates I believe were for them to make 40 cents per share for the next quarter. They’re announcing a monstrous loss and they’re now hiring others for “strategic alternatives.”

And what’s lesson here: THINGS CHANGE!

Here is a company that blew it. People loved their Blackberries. They called them “Crackberries.” But they didn’t move with the market. They rested on their laurels. They did not change.

And gotta tell you. I’m not so sure they’re going to remain a going concern. I don’t think you can “put the crap back in the goose” as they say. And they do something like $20 billion in revenues. But last quarter, it was down 25%

Things change. Please stay on top of those two words. We’ve seen it this year in Green Mountain Coffee, Netflix…and how about Hewlett Packard?

Hewlett Packard. The stock’s been toast. That was a great stock for a while.

There a lot of money to lose in the market if you’re not moving with the market.

That’s the memo.

Let these be your lessons:

  1. Price and valuation matters
  2. Watch your stock, because you just never know. The great stocks of yesteryear can be your worst stocks today. We’re dealing with businesses here.

Look at Merck, the greatest drug company of all time. I think it’s down 50% from 2000. That’s a lot of cake. Things change. Value and price matters.

And if you are not in tune with those changes, you are going to get run over.

I want you to say in gear with the market.

Understand that the great names that everybody has to own today, could be the caca next week. It is imperative to watch that stock and how it is acting in the market against its peers vs. the market itself.

Imperative.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

PEOPLE AND CAPITAL WILL GO WHERE THEY ARE TREATED BEST

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 New York State accounted for the biggest migration exodus of any state in the nation between 2000 and 2010, with 3.4 million residents leaving over that period, according to the Tax Foundation.

Over that decade the state gained 2.1 million, so net migration amounted to 1.3 million, representing a loss of $45.6 billion in income.

Continued

SOURCE: http://cnsnews.com