CROSSCURRENTS

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We have been telling you that no longer can you just throw darts at the tape and make money…that fewer and fewer stocks and sectors were participating in the upside…and that in certain corners of the market, things were downright bearish. Well…heading into the “end of month window dressing ” week, not much has changed. Of course, it is illegal to window dress so it really doesn’t happen.

As far as the major indices go, the Russell, Smallcap 600, Midcap 400 as well as the NYSE remain the lagging indices. All continue to trade below the 50 day average. The Dow and S&P are sitting on the 50 day with the NASDAQ and NDX. For starters, to take the positive side, a move above last week’s highs would be a big help…but on the negative front, a break below the 4/10 lows would make the correction deeper.

That all said, we watch 198 sectors and just about every country…and what we are seeing can continue to be called “crosscurrents!”

It is negative that while all the major indices have not broken near term support, the SOX has. We do give the semiconductors a lot of importance here. Speaking of importance, while they have not broken support yet, the financials have been under pressure. A break below the 50 day for the IYF and XLF would be decidedly negative. Again, we watch these two areas very closely.

Other areas we remain negative on are the commodities which includes oils,steel,copper,aluminum, metals,mining,construction and the like. It is not very often these areas do not fully participate with the market but in the recent run-up, they did and by a wide margin. Of course, add in the gold and silver which continue to act horrid. (Look for my long-term, potentially bullish gold report…coming out in a couple of weeks.)

The good news is that just about everything else is doing fine, though just about everything has pulled in. And until the lows of the past couple of weeks get taken out, it is too soon to turn bearish on an intermediate-term basis. If a break does occur, it would fit in well with what we have seen throughout the years as well as classically the past two years…a “sell in May and go away” market. We have never been huge believers in seasonality…but sometimes, the numbers are compelling. Here are the levels that need to hold:

DOW 12.710…S&P 1357…NASDAQ 2975…NDX 2660…RUSSELL 2000 783…NYSE 7835.

Lastly, there are a couple thousand more earning’s reports coming out in the next few weeks. The reaction should tell a lot.

 

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

YUP…SING WITH ME…MONEY MONEY MONEY…MONEY!

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Don’t you just love these people? Another in a long line of fabulous allocaters of capital!

The upcoming United Nations environmental conference on sustainable development will consider  a breathtaking array of carbon taxes, transfers of trillions of dollars from wealthy countries to poor ones, and new spending programs to guarantee that populations around the world are protected from the effects of the very programs the world organization wants to implement, according to stunning U.N. documents examined  by Fox News.

Continued

SOURCE:  http://www.foxnews.com

YES…THAT DARN TEA PARTY THAT JUST WANTS BALANCED BUDGETS AND EFFICIENT GOVERNMENT…YES — TERRIBLE PEOPLE!

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Former Obama administration adviser Van Jones said the country should re-elect President Barack Obama to “stop the tea party” because former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney would “govern as a tea party president.”

Jones also said that some of Obama’s supporters misunderstood Obama as a “social movement leader” after his victory in the 2008 presidential race rather than as “head of state.”

Continued

SOURCE: http://dailycaller.com

04/20/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/042018.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Crosscurrents

I’ve received no less than 50 emails today on Apple (APPL). It was down another 14 today. It went from 640 to 570, back to 610 and back to 570.

It’s correcting. That’s it. That’s all I can tell you. The market will dictate policy come Tuesday on where it’s going to go.

There’s a justice department deal going on with Apple right now which is potentially negative.

Verizon came out and there was talk that the number people signing up for Apple iPhones through Verizon was not as much as expected. That’s out there.

But as for Apple, there is nothing wrong with it except that it went too far, too fast and decided to pull in here. And we’ll get a better idea on Tuesday.

And, of course, Apple has a significant effect on the Nasdaq-100. I think it’s about 13% on the Nasdaq and I think even on the S&P these days.  So that was what drove today – a disappointing day even though the Dow was up 65.

If was to sum up this market, it would be one word: Crosscurrents. While some things are heading north, a lot of things are heading south. And there’s typically not a lot in between.

While the Semiconductors are breaking down:

  • A bunch of Housing names held the 50-day moving average today.
  • Some of the apparel retailers broke out today.

While the Financials are getting into some trouble, other areas are catching a bid.

I think we’re going to see more of that going forward.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

WE ARE SCREWED…PRICES WILL ONLY GO UP

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Let’s see: 

Delta/Northwest…Continental/United…US Air/America West…now AMR…Southwest/Airtran…

We are screwed…prices will only go up.

(MoneyWatch) US Airways (LCC) has filed an 8K with the SEC to begin the process of a takeover of American Airlines, which is currently in Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

According to the SEC, Form 8-K is the ‘current report’ companies file with the SEC to announce major events that must be disclosed to shareholders.

American Airlines has said it wants to emerge from bankruptcy as a standalone carrier. American Airlines parent AMR, which filed for bankruptcy protection on Nov. 29, 2011, is trying to slash its annual labor costs by $1.25 billion and emerge from court supervision. Next week, the struggling airline will try to convince a bankruptcy judge to let it void existing union contracts and impose new ones to secure those spending cuts.

SOURCE: http://www.cbsnews.com

AND YOU WERE WONDERING WHY THIS MAN IS NOT IN TROUBLE?

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Just sickening to watch!    

Barack Obama’s reelection campaign has released the most recent list of names of fundraising bundlers. On that list is Jon Corzine, the former governor of New Jersey and embattled money man, the former head of MF Global:

Continued

SOURCE: http://www.weeklystandard.com

THERE HAS GOT TO BE A BETTER ANSWER

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The Congressional Budget Office said Thursday that 45 million people in 2011 received Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits, a 70% increase from 2007. It  said the number of people receiving the benefits, commonly known as food stamps, would continue growing until 2014.

Spending for the program, not including administrative costs, rose to $72 billion in 2011, up from $30 billion four years earlier. The CBO projected that one in seven U.S. residents received food stamps last year.

Continued

SOURCE: http://blogs.wsj.com

04/19/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/041918.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Right now we are in the midst of earnings season and there is a lot of jello moving on the plate. But I will make one little blanket statement today on the market overall. And as always, my friends, you get to decide what you want to do. I have a certain mantra when the market is getting a little iffy:

Anything breaking the 10-week/50-day moving average is basically a sell at that point in time. Sometimes, I’ll give a day or two and see what happens. But typically there is a reason.

In the past 3 weeks, the market has had distribution and basically what that means is that you are getting heavier volume on the sell side. We’re getting an inability of the market to rally and I say this letting you know that the Nasdaq’s down 4% and change. The NYSE is down 4%. The Russell 2000 is down a little bit more…about 6% and change.

So it’s no biggie. But it we always want to be careful for it to turn into a biggie. And what we do–knowing there’s so much intervention and manipulation and so much government caca on a daily basis that can move things— is just look at pictures of what things look like:

  1. Before they tend to go lower and
  2. Before they tend to go higher ….knowing that it’s not 100% correct, especially when you’re dealing with so much intervention and interference.

We use the two words “odds favor.” We think odds favor. And then we let it play out, know there is nothing written in stone. Knowing we are dealing without outside influences on a daily basis. We have to worry about Spain bond auctions! And, of course we’re in the middle of the election year.

I’ve got some main themes:

  1. The tailwinds are gone on the whole for the market. Headwinds are definitively within certain areas.
  2. To repeat, all the Commodity areas remain with headwinds. They continue to be unbelievably, amazingly over-the-top underperforming. And I say that because typically, in bull phases the Commodities will go along for the ride and, in this case, they did not. So that has not changed a bit. And that goes for Gold and Silver also. They are “avoids.”
  3. We’ve talked to you recently above a high in financials, a high in semiconductors, but that doesn’t mean the end of the world is coming. But they started pulling back. Two very important areas.

Going into more and more earnings, I’m just letting you know: They probably better not break the lows of the past couple of weeks.

That’s all I’m saying. We look for setups in the markets. We look for:

  • Bullish wedges
  • Bearish wedges
  • Breakouts
  • Breakdowns

And just so you know, these are not just turns, but they are the measure of fear and greed in the market. The wedges that are being traced out in a lot areas had better not be resolved to the downside. They had better not resolve themselves, breaking the past couple of week’s lows.

And that’s it. If they hold…good. If they don’t, we will get some more legs down and we’ll probably in the realm of a high single digits, low teens corrective type phase.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS

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Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

04/18/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/041818.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

I study careers. Just something to think about.

Study success. Study the characteristics of people who have been successful. Study their stories. Read about them.

You know I have found?

They all have one thing in common. Seriously.

One word: Persistence.

Failed? You’re on your rear end? Get back up again.

Failed again? Get off your rear end and get back up again.

Failed? Get back up again.

Failed? Get back up again.

Failed a hundred times? Get back a hundred and one.

Most of these people that I read about are people that were on their butts. They had to look themselves in the mirror. Just food for thought, ladies and gentlemen.

And this most every one of these people have not been born with a silver spoon in their mouth.

They worked their tail off.

And they were persistent as all heck.

And they didn’t let failure get them down.

They used failure as a stepping stone to do better.

Just letting you know.

That is the one common denominator I have found.

I just want to give you that little…because that’s how I live.

Knock me down 200 times and up 201. 

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

GARY ON GEITHNER’S TV APPEARANCES THIS PAST WEEKEND

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“GOVERNMENT IS A TRUST, AND THE OFFICERS OF THE GOVERNMENT ARE TRUSTEES, AND THE BOTH, THE TRUST AND THE TRUSTEES ARE CREATED FOR THE BENEFIT OF THE PEOPLE!”   –    HENRY CLAY

Tim Geithner is our Treasury Secretary. Before I say another word, this is what their own website says about the job of Treasury Secretary: “The Secretary of the Treasury is the principal economic advisor to the President and plays a critical role in policy-making by bringing an economic and government financial policy perspective to issues facing the government. The Secretary is responsible for formulating and recommending domestic and international financial, economic, and tax policy, participating in the formulation of broad fiscal policies that have general significance for the economy, and managing the public debt. The Secretary oversees the activities of the Department in carrying out its major law enforcement responsibilities; in serving as the financial agent for the United States Government; and in manufacturing coins and currency.

Tim Geithner was on the networks this weekend to defend the Obama policies. I understand politics. I understand what camp certain people are in. I don’t understand how the three networks let this man get away with lying through his teeth about the fiscal health of this country…and who was to blame. I must tell you, I have hardly watched the networks as they don’t even hide how much they are in the tank. But I was hoping that just one of them would hold this man’s feet to the fire when it comes to this country’s (yours,mine and our children’s) debt. Instead, we got a load of crap.

Frankly, if someone woke up from a coma this morning, one would have thought George Bush was still President because didn’t you know, it is all his fault. I was just waiting to hear Timmy blame the Bubonic plague, the Chicago Fire and the sinking of the Titanic on Bush. According to this trustee of our debt:

Most of the debt that has been incurred was on Bush’s watch…a lie! But let me say Bush was also a terrible steward of our taxpayer dollars.

If it wasn’t for the Republicans stopping legislation, our debt would be lower…a lie! Of course, I heard no one mention that they had unfettered power for two years.

Barack Obama has proposed taking debt from 9% of GDP to 3%. Huh!

Barack Obama is not to blame for the debt! %#@&%

The overall cost of energy has come down. Obviously Timmy has his chauffeur pump the gas.

Again, I understand who this man answers to. But I also understand that these people think you are idiots. They just make things up as they go along and after being in power for over three years, they still blame any bad on others…and take credit for any of the good. And unfortunately, the supine, lapdog, paws in the air media just sit there. How hard is it to read the numbers and just ask: “who are you trying to kid Mr. Secretary?”

“IF THEY DON’T STOP, EVENTUALLY, THE MARKET WILL STOP THEM!”    –    GARY KALTBAUM

Yes…I coined that phrase…or maybe I borrowed it in 06-07 when I noticed what was going on in the housing market as well as with the corrupt lenders. We are now at almost $16 trillion in debt and the people in power do not give a crap. We are hearing nothing about the deficits…just that we have to raise taxes and continue spending. They are getting away with this because markets have cooperated…but if there was anything we have learned from 07-08…DON’T TAUNT THE MARKETS!  Remember, it is never bad until the market says so. But we have had so much manipulation and interference, we have no clue where markets really are or where they will end up. Ben Bernanke has purchased over 60% of our bond issuance in the past year…funding the massive debt with conjured up money. Who is going to buy these bonds away from the Fed? If the bond market wakes up, one has to worry about what we are seeing across the pond where rates have been spiking. With the Fed holding trillions in bonds with no one to sell them to…who then takes the loss as rates must go higher to fund the out of control debt. I am afraid between Geithner and Bernanke, the two most important trustees of our taxpayer dollars, we have nothing more than two people who believe in more leverage and debt to cure a problem of leverage and debt. Neither one seem to be the least bit worried. I am afraid balloons only expand so far.

Hoping to be 100% wrong on all this…but I think all of us logical people know better.

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.