FROM BEYOND OVERSOLD TO INFINITY AND BEYOND

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The markets have gone from “beyond oversold” into a massive move in just 6 days…4 of them on gaps. My abacus tells me about 75% of the move has occurred in non-trading. I guess after watching the wild swings since the lows in August, this could not be labeled unexpected as this is one of the most news-driven markets on record…but for me, these outlier moves remain unexpected and are tough to get used to. I gather the moral of the story is not fight central banks. Since March of 09, every time they took out their ammo, the markets ripped. So here we go again.

I would love to think that this is just the end of year rally mentioned. After all, the facts are that the market has been up 10 out of the last 10 years and 22 out of the last 24 from Veteran’s Day until New Years. Up until November 25th, the end of year pop could be called into question…not any more.

Near term, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know markets are near-term overbought…which maybe, possibly, could be lead to pullbacks. But with central banks looking to be all in, who’s to know. Major averages are now back into the meat of resistance, just under the all-important 200 day moving average and under the massive resistance that was carved out from May to July. Many of the weakest areas are carving out potentially bullish inverted head and shoulder patterns…including the all-important financials and commodities. Just watch them to tell you if markets have more upside.

The good news is that with this move, some leadership has shown up…but the new high list remains very small and is still missing high powered growth names that usually lead markets. Hopefully, we start to see some show up.

 

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securit

12/02/2011: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/120218.mp3

 Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW…

More of the same.

  1. Crash into early August, then hit a low where market rallied up 10% in six days.
  2. We then dropped about 7% in 3 days.
  3. We then rallied up about 9% in 7 days.
  4. And then in 2 days we dropped about 8%.
  5. In 2 days we rallied up 5.5%.
  6. And then next 2 days we dropped 6%.
  7. And the next 5 days we rallied up…7%.
  8. And the next 3 days we dropped about 9%.
  9. Next, we rallied up about 7%.
  10. The next 4 days we dropped about 10%…Culminating with the wash out on Oct 4.
  11. And then in 5 days we rallied up 11%.
  12. Sat around…had two big gaps  into the highs of late August and then we did two big gaps down.
  13. A little rally up.
  14. Another big day down.
  15. Within a day, a gap up. Then another big drop.
  16. Went down about about 9% in seven days.
  17. And this week on two days that gapped up, a total of about 640 points.
  18. We finished with a rally this week of 8% and this one was for the books because …you couldn’t get in because they were gaps.

And where does that leave us?

MAJOR AVERAGES ARE IN THE MIDST OF NEAR-TERM RESISTANCE UNDERNEATH MASSIVE RESISTANCE THAT WAS MADE AROUND MARCH TO JULY PERIOD.

Since July 1st the Nasdaq has had 16 days where it was up 2% or more. Some of the days it was up  4%.

So on those 16 days, the Nasdaq was up about cumulatively 40%. And the Nasdaq’s still down about 6% or 7% which tells you how wild the swings have been. …In this very, very, very, very, very tough environment…up or down.

Next week — We’re into resistance. We gapped up twice and we’re already overbought. As I’ve been telling you for weeks now, there’s no way to put your thumb on this. And anybody telling you they can is lying. We’ll see what happens.

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

THEY JUST DONT GIVE A CRAP ABOUT TAXPAYERS…CONTINUED

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You may not have seen the show “Diary of a Single Mom” co-starring Billy Dee Williams, but your tax dollars helped pay for it.

Through the federal economic stimulus program, a company owned by actor-director Robert Townsend was paid more than $230,000 to produce and direct the Web-based show, records show. Other production costs on the show paid to different vendors total more than $700,000.

The money came through an award by the Department of Commerce to One Economy Corp. for more than $28 million last year to help boost broadband Internet service in underserved areas across the country.

One Economy is using more than $1.5 million of that money to create programming such as “Diary of a Single Mom,” which the group says will help provide an incentive for people to connect to the Internet.

Continued

SOURCE: http://p.washingtontimes.com

I AM BUYING THIS BOOK TODAY

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When my husband was diagnosed in July 2009 with esophageal cancer — a disease with a 25% survival rate beyond 18 months — my initial instinct was to talk about inner strength. “You’re going to beat this,” I told him. “You’re strong. You’re healthy. You’re young.” I think I was trying to convince myself that he would be ok just as much as I was trying to comfort him.

Continued

SOURCE: http://www.huffingtonpost.com

12/01/2011: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/120118.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW…

With about 20 trading days left in the year…

I like today. I like quiet. I like it when markets sit. Quiet enables patterns to form. 

I know a lot people who very short yesterday...who got blasted.

I know were that long big the week before…and got blasted.

Very tough environment to gauge. We will eventually come out it.

IN THE MEANTIME, IT IS A MUST THAT YOU BE AS PATIENT AS PATIENT CAN BE.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS
6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.