THE EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS ARE WORSE THAN STATED

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Notice the big drop since in the past 2-3 years. Go back to 66% civilian participation and the unemployment rate skyrockets. If the job market was indeed getting better, this chart would not be diving. Or maybe the ATMs are the culprit.

JUST LOGIC!

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Bring on the war of words. In a frank conversation with MSN writer Lawrence Ulrich, Audi of America President Johan de Nysschen has said that the Chevy Volt will fail and that anybody who buys the car is an idiot. Not only that, de Nysschen has lumped proponents of any type of electric car into a category of “intellectual elite who want to show what enlightened souls they are.”

I’m guessing that means a fair amount of the people reading this would be considered idiots and pompous intellectual elites in Mr. de Nysschen’s book. Funny that. Hearing an Audi executive mocking any other car as being for intellectual pompous elites is, err, interesting, given that Audi is known for being in exactly that category themselves. Agh.

Continued

SOURCE: http://gas2.org

12/16/2011: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/121618.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW…

9 trading days left in the year.

In the past few months, I made a point of telling you that we’re entering a very tough period for the market…and that’s what we got.

I said it based on how many areas of the market that had topped out–combined with policy, Europe, deficits, margins, lack of expansion. A nauseating nine months.

And nauseating doesn’t mean the market has to be down 50%. It means some financials are down 40% to 50%, commodities 25% to 30%, foreign markets anywhere from 15% to 30%…and a lot stocks beaten up, a lot of past growth leaders destroyed. No leadership whatsoever. Can’t make any money on your savings as the moronic, maniacal Fed has rates at zero.

So what do we do during this time.

Patience. Patience.

If there’s any one thing I’m happy about, it’s the patience I’ve had. And it was caused by a) the markets and b) trying to do a couple things that just didn’t work. When things don’t work, you have to patient.

While so many will discouraged and upset…and tend to walk away….

THERE IS NO BETTER TIME IN THE MARKETS THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW.

…Here’s why:

Bears markets always end. And what they do is spawn new bull phases with names you have never heard of that go on to two-, four-, five-….ten-fold moves. So I’m still hard at work and I will continue to be work hard at it….and wait until…

…A lot of leadership shows up. And its not  there yet.

…And I’m looking for new names. Can’t find any yet.

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

SAW THIS COMING SEVERAL MILES AWAY. WILL ONLY GET WORSE!

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HONG KONG—Real-estate prices are falling across much of Asia as government measures to rein in once-booming prices start to bite and the slowing global economy hits export-dependent economies.

The slowdown ends years of increases that have driven prices up by 70% or more since the start of 2009 in the hottest markets, spurred by strong economic growth and an influx of investors, many of them foreign, who view Asian real estate as an investment that is relatively immune to the global financial turmoil.

Markets such as Beijing, Hong Kong, Singapore and Sydney are all seeing outright price declines, while prices are flat in Seoul.

Continued

SOURCE: http://online.wsj.com

NOT THRILLED! IT IS ONLY CIVIL CHARGES AND NO MENTION OF FRANKLIN RIANES!

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Daniel Mudd, the former chief executive officer of Fannie Mae, and Richard Syron, ex-CEO of Freddie Mac, were sued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for understating by hundreds of billions of dollars the subprime loans held by the agencies.

The lawsuits filed today in Manhattan federal court were followed by an SEC statement that it had entered into non- prosecution agreements with each lender. Fannie Mae, the government-sponsored enterprise which issues almost half of all mortgage-backed securities, and Freddie Mac, the McLean, Virginia-based mortgage-finance company, had “agreed to accept responsibility” for their conduct, the SEC said.

Continued

SOURCE: http://www.bloomberg.com

12/15/2011: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/121518.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW…

We’ve had a pretty icky market as of late–what I’ve been describing as bearish action. A lot of areas are breaking down. I don’t like what I’m seeing…a lot of growth leaders in trouble.  

At the very least, there’s just not much to do, as there’s not much leadership in the market.

Every day I read you the new high list. I can it quite quickly (about 12 seconds) because there are not many new highs. And we’re talking about yearly highs. That really defines whether you have a good market or not.

“…Whether you have great growth leadership breaking out to new highs…”

We have 10 trade days left this year. And in surprising fashion, the market is down decently since Veterans Day even though the last 10 out 10 years it’s been up and the last 22 out 24 years it’s been up. So you can take the seasonality and just throw it out the window.

And frankly what I think is really happening here, if I was just guessing:

Those two big gap days we had on this Europe thing…that had been what the market wanted to do into the end of the year. Except it was kinda forced on the news of…whatever of that news was.

And frankly, Einstein couldn’t understand what the heck they’re talking about coming out of Europe.

So this continues to be a time for patience…or you just get carved up.

And the most importing thing you can do right now is to keep your capital near its high watermark for when this thing ultimately turns. And it will definitely turn. It is a guarantee that we will have another bull market out this. You just don’t know when. 

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

12/14/2011: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/121418.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW…

From February to March, I started warning you of an impending top. I had the reasons. I told you what I was seeing. I started with the financials and then the semiconductors.

We went through a real bearish market, culminating with what I consider to be a crash...except it happened in 8 days instead of 1. And then we had the most wild action from August to October,..I think we had about 6 or 7 10% moves.

October 4th, we had a washout day. I told we were going to rally, and we did rally up strong.

But something happened on the way to that rally.

As I told you on many days — NO LEADERSHIP, A LOT OF THINGS STILL LAGGING, FINANCIALS IN A BEAR AND MANY OTHER THINGS IN A BEAR. Small caps really laboring badly vs. the larger caps...and on and on and on.

And so we got hit into late November...November 25. And then we had those big gaps to the upside. That was based on a couple announcements from Europe…that they were going to “save the world.” And as we rallied up, still no leadership.

Yesterday, I came on the show and said we just dropped for a couple days and normally a drop of a couple day is no biggie. I told you yesterday, there was a bearish consequence and I thought the market was acting very bearishly. A lot of stocks starting to break support.

You had Gold breaking something that has held since January 2009, and nothing has changed. The market acted even more bearishly today.

And the interesting part of this equation: It is happening in period of what is supposed to be seasonal strength from Veteran’s Day till New Years.

Now, very simply. They can start rallying this up. It can it happen. I don’t see a reason that it couldn’t. But any rally up will contain a clear lack of leadership and not much to do.

My big worry has been December...it was come January. But the market’s not even really waiting right now and today, they started to come after anything that was holding up.

So the best way to explain it..I just think it’s very bearish action. I told you that yesterday and I say it again today. In the short-term, we could walk into a good up day — a gap for all I know. Anything’s possible.

BUT THE BIG PICTURE IS SIMPLE: THINGS ARE WORSENING. And I will leave it at that for this second.

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

NOW YOU KNOW WHY I DON’T TRUST THE NUMBERS REPORTED

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Data on sales of previously owned U.S. homes from 2007 through October this year will be revised down next week because of double counting, indicating a much weaker housing market than previously thought.

The National Association of Realtors said a benchmarking exercise had revealed that some properties were listed more than once, and in some instances, new home sales were also captured.

“All the sales and inventory data that have been reported since January 2007 are being downwardly revised. Sales were weaker than people thought,” NAR spokesman Walter Malony told Reuters.

Continued

SOURCE: http://www.cnbc.com

GOLD BREAKS THE 150 DAY AVERAGE FIRST TIME SINCE JAN 09

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Gold has broke below its 150 day moving average the first time since January of 09. Since that time, gold has tagged this long term moving average 9 times…most to the penny. If it cannot get back above within the next week, I would consider it a major breakdown of consequence. Very simply, the longer a trend lasts, and then breaks, the more the break is of importance. Also of importance, the 200 day moving average is just below at $157. A break below there and we are talking the first bear market in gold since the bear of 08. Silver started its bear back in April off of a climactic move. Keep in mind, the recent top in gold was also a climactic move.

 

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

12/09/2011: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/120918.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW…

14 days of trading left in the year.  The spasticity of the market has not died down. As I told you, the market from Veterans Day to the end of the year has been higher for the past 10 out of 10 years, and 22 out of the past 24.

Right after Veterans Day the market got whacked, coming into last week, and then we gapped up 2 days — got almost all of it back. Played around this week, had a rough day yesterday. And then yesterday I said,  just tongue in check, “we’ll just gap up 200 tomorrow.”  We’ll we didn’t get 200, but we had a good day.

A few chinks in the armor, but I’m going to give a bunch of names for your review over the weekend. These are the leading growth names have held up best, while the markets been going through whatever it’s going through.

If we ever do get a life out of here, I’ve got the names. It’s pretty simple. There is a decent amount of names potentially setting up. If they can start punching through to the upside with volume, then we can start talking.

  • Apple (AAPL), remains in a six-month trading range, tightening up a little bit along the 50-Day MA.  Just moved off the 200-day moving average. Here is the problem, this rally up, has shown no accumulation whatsoever.
  • Chipotle (CMG), pretty much like Apple. Rangebound for 5 to 6 months. Showing support along the 200-day moving average. Very little volume on moves up to the highs.
  • Google (GOOG), acting pretty decently. Earnings are fine.
  • Hansen Natural (HANS) strong, but a rally for two weeks on declining volume. Still, on a relative basis very strong.
  • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) needs to pop above 450 on good volume.
  • Master Card (MA), It’s ascending, but volume starting lighten up as it ascends.
  • VISA’s (V) strong also.
  • Panera (PNRA) nice pullback, was up okay today.
  • Underarmor (UA), pulling back toward the 50-day, needs to break above 85.
  • McDonald, remains strong, overextended.
  • IBM into new high ground

The good news about today...lots of green in the strongest areas of the market. That’s what I like to see. What was missing? There was just no volume whatsoever. When I see some stocks like Master Card up 8...I want to see some volume. Until I see some real conviction behind it, you’ve got to question the duration. Volume is about conviction. Always has been, always will be.

I think we’re going higher into the end of the year. It’s that seasonal strength brought on by the people that are down big this year. And I read a story where a ton of hedge funds are doing 15% to 20%. They’re going to do everything possible not to sell, which means go up and then...they come selling in January. Now that’s illegal — painting the tape. But they know not a single one of them is going to jail. So they continue to do it.

The “big news” today...another 900 billion Euros this time...to save the world. I gotta tell you that there’s so much printed money flying around right now. I don’t know where it comes from. I don’t know what its for.  And I feel like a I have a pretty decent eye on this stuff. It’s really just a joke. You have stupid people who caused the problem, telling you they know how to fix it. It’s quite an amazing thing to watch.

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.