12/23/2011: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/122318.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW…

For a couple weeks, while the markets were still suffering, I kept asking the question, “When are they going to come in and paint the tape?”

In classic fashion, CLASSIC…Wall Street has taken a down year and now the S&P’s up, 2 tenths of a percent for the year.

Wall Street, in which the Financials were breaking down again on Monday – ripped the market back up in the four days leading into Christmas. Light volume, except for Tuesday.

As I’ve said before, these “Big Boys” get paid their fees at the end of the month, at the end of the year and, many by end of the quarter. And in bull or bear markets, somehow, some way, the market rallies into those time frames.

And I must tell you, I was quite worried about whether we would get a rally this time. As we came into Monday, the market was acting awful. The worse areas of the market were breaking down badly…BankAmerica breaking down below 5 bucks, as I told you a very important place.

What happens? We gap up 260 points on Tuesday and we don’t look back the rest of the week. Flatish on Wednesday. Another good day yesterday. And out of the gate again today…and, course in the final 5 minutes…had to throw in the big kazoo at 4:00p to get it even better into the upside.

Now how does this occur? Are all these people that manage all this big money, in the same room or on a squawk box? No.

They just know. And when there’s very light volume, they stop selling. That’s what goes on. So any little bit of buying is going to produce higher bids. And then it tends to feed on itself.

Now a warning: Very often in bearish markets, when they rally’em into the end of the year – come January they come smoke’em them.  That means they get hit. I make no predictions.

For all I know, we keep going up (you know the market had a follow-through day on Tuesday). Leadership starts to emerge and we get going. After all, a lot value stocks, a lot of defensive stocks are acting well…utilities, drugs, foods, beverages, tobacco – I’m not sure that’s the greatest sign. But for me the proof will be after the holidays.

All anybody needs to know is this. I’ll give you an example. Oil stocks are very weak except for Chevron and Exxon. Chevron and Exxon are in the Dow. Agenda? You tell me. And I could go on and on.

It’s just a phenomenon, that if I ran the SEC, I wouldn’t let happen. But there’s so much on their plate from so many crooks…not much you can do.

Just be wary of the New Year.

For the year, the S&P’s now up. Not much. The Nasdaq, the Russell, the NYSE…still down. The Semiconductors down big. Foreign markets down big.

And this remains, for me since 1994 the toughest market on record. I’m not talking about returns. I’m not talking about bear markets. 

I’m talking in gap up 4%, gap down 4%, gap up 5% gap down 5%, go up 11% in 5 days, go down 12% the next four days, go up 9% the next 5 days, go down 10% the next 3 days. News out of Europe, news not out of years.

This week, we got a European TARP. 500 banks got access to 600 billion EURO or something like that at 1%. Now, of course, this is printed money. They’re getting it from the European Central Bank and they don’t have any money. It is what it is.

Markets love debt and leverage in the short run. Don’t ask me why.

Let’s see where it goes.

I’ll be looking at the patterns over the 3-day weekend. I already know what I’m finding. And again, I repeat. Let’s hope this turns into something.

SPECIAL NOTE: Be sure to register now for my next live Webinar on Saturday January 21, 2012. I will talk about the important implications of early-January’s market action…and much more.  Click here for more information

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.


12/22/2011: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/122218.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW…

5 days left of trading in the year.

I listen back through my radio shows and, man, do I sound like a cynic these days. But I have to tell you that the cynicism has been earned by the people that should be blasted.

I’ve told you that, the last 10 out of 10 years, the market has been up from Veterans Day until the end of the year…as well as 22 out of the past 24 years.

And how is that possible?

All these “Big Boys” whether they’re hedge funds, mutual funds, investment funds…whatever they are – they get paid their fees at the end of the month, at the end of the year and, many by the quarter.

So they paint the tape into the end of those times. And that is not an opinion.

GO BACK AND LOOK. I DON’T MAKE THIS STUFF UP.

Since Veteran’s Day the market been down, but I kept telling you the market looks horrible, there’s no leadership… but it ain’t the end of the year yet.

And we walked into this week, when they were really starting to break some things down. The Financials were getting busted. BankAmerica was under 5 and as I told you, that’s important because by their charter or laws or whatever they use as their terminology, the Big Boys wouldn’t be able to own BankAmerica, which means they’d have to sell it.

And Tuesday we gapped up. Out of nowhere. No news.

And then yesterday, I didn’t predict. I gave you facts. I told you that if the market was going to higher into the end of the year, they will do it with the Financials. Why? Because, they’re a huge part of the S&P. And if they get the Financials moving, that’ll put some confidence into other areas…namely the Semis.

The Financials were very strong today. The Semis were very strong today.  Happenstance? Accident on purpose? I’LL LET YOU DECIDE. All I know are the facts.

Get this…the excuse for the Semis having a strong day…Micron (MU) missed estimates, both revenues and earnings…warned going forward…and they reported an ungodly loss. Stock was up 14% today.  The SOX was up by about 3 1/2%

Agenda? I’LL LET YOU DECIDE.

I just hearken by to ’07, where at the end of the year they popped things up and as we came into January ’08, the bear resumed.

I’m not saying the same thing is going to happen. I’m saying, as a cynic, that if they are painting the tape, they’re doing it in exactly as I thought and as I told you.

Not to mention, I noticed something else today. The oils are weak, except for Chevron and Exxon. They’ve popped up this week. Oh yeah, Chevron and Exxon are on the Dow. Between those two stocks: Total 12 points, which is equivalent to about 112 Dow points, this week.

Just trying to be a little CSI for you. Because while they’re doing this, there’s still very little leadership. There’s no growth leadership. And whenever the market rallies, it is the worst areas getting the bid, because the Financials and Semiconductors that have been the worst areas.

I’m going to be watching closely as we enter the new year. Maybe they’re bottoming. The cynic in my says no. We’ll let the market decide. 

SPECIAL NOTE: Be sure to register now for my next live Webinar on Saturday January 21, 2012. I will talk about the important implications of early-January’s market action…and much more.  

Click here for more information

 

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

MY OH MY…SEEMS LIKE A MIGHTY BIG CAN

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The ECB’s back-door bail-out for Italy, Spain, Belgium, and… France? …is €489bn.

Roughly €300bn of today’s eagerly awaited LTRO tender is recycled old money from earlier support operations. The new money is €200bn. This alone is not going to shore up the sovereign states of southern Europe as they grind deeper into recession/depression.

Enjoy Mario Draghi’s Santa Rally while it lasts. The euphoria is likely to dissipate once markets remember the sheer scale of the task at hand.

Continued

SOURCE: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk

Be sure to register now for Gary Kaltbaum’s live Webinar on Saturday January 21, 2012. He will talk about the important implications of early-January’s market action…and much more.  Click here for more information.

YOU AIN’T SEEN NOTHING YET…THEY ARE JUST GETTING STARTED

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With precisely one year left for the world and all of its inhabitants, at least according to the Mayans, not to mention on the day of the Winter Solstice, it is only fitting that US debt, net of all settlements for all already completed bond auctions, is now at precisely $15,182,756,264,288.80. Why is this relevant? Because the latest annualized US GDP, according to the BEA, was $15,180,900,000.00. Which means that, as of today, total US debt to GDP is 100.012%. Congratulations America: you are now in the triple digit “debt to GDP” club!

Continued

SOURCE: http://www.zerohedge.com

Be sure to register now for Gary Kaltbaum’s live Webinar on Saturday January 21, 2012. He will talk about the important implications of early-January’s market action…and much more.  Click here for more information.

12/21/2011: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/122118.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW…

The markets were acting poorly coming into yesterday. The financials were really getting whacked. Bank of America dropped under $5.00 for a little while. There were new lows on a lot of banks, and then yesterday…we gap up, finishing up 330 points, Nasdaq up 70.

What led? THE BANKS.

I have talked to you on this show about end-of-the-year window dressing…”painting the tape” making sure the market’s up no matter what. And I have this thesis in my mind:

If tomorrow, we were nuked, the Dow would go  down 1000 points and then finish flat by 4:00p ET, the people would come on TV saying this:

“…While we got nuked, because of all the “new construction” that would be going on, the economy’s going to be strong — so the market got bought up…”

No. It would be the end of the year window dressing. By the way, that was  a  joke.

We now have two days left this week. Four days next week. The market will get illiquid Friday which means they move the market easier. And the same will go for next Thursday and Friday as we have this Monday and the next Monday off, for Christmas and New Year’s.

When I talk about end-of-quarter window dressing , end of year, end of month and painting the tape, that means the Big Boys will do everything possible to keep markets up or going higher. And they typically know where to attack. They know the areas that have the most influence on the markets.

If you take financials and commodities and add’em up, that’s about 45% of the S&P. Now these have been your weakest areas…but oversold. So if the can get them moving, that’ll help the market.

Now the market was very weak today, with the Dow down 100. I got some emails from people and I said:

“Watch, they’re going to buy up the financials, the commodities and the oils… and that’s exactly what happened today.

Six days left. I’m not worried about December. I want to see how this plays out into January.

SPECIAL NOTE: Be sure to register now for my next live Webinar on Saturday January 21, 2012. I will talk about the important implications of early-January’s market action…and much more.  

Click here for more information

 

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

TAXPAYER SCREWED ONCE AGAIN

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Each Chevy Volt sold thus far may have as much as $250,000 in state and federal dollars in incentives behind it – a total of $3 billion altogether, according to an analysis by James Hohman, assistant director of fiscal policy at the Mackinac Center for Public Policy.

Continued

SOURCE: http://www.michigancapitolconfidential.com

12/20/2011: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/122018.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW…

In the past few weeks, I’ve been telling you that the end of the year has a tremendous track record.

The last 10 out of 10 years, from Veterans Day until the end of the year – UP.

The past 22 out of the 24 years – UP.

Yet since Veterans Day, the market has been kinda sucking wind. And every day, I’ve been coming on this show  saying, “Wow, is it ugly…there is no leadership…Wow they just can’t get this market moving.”

And then what happens? At the end of November, 2 huge gaps up in the market, making the end of the month look so much better. Then the market tops out again into yesterday.

…Leaving only eight days left in the year with the S&P down for year. With the NYSE, the Russell and the other indices down a decent amount. Foreign markets, basically trashed. What do they do?

They gapped it up 260 points today…and had a very strong day…the third huge gap since November 28.

Leave no doubt I play the market as it comes. I will let the market dictate no matter. But for me, I think they have started the “mark up” period — now with seven days left.

And of course, this Friday things will quiet down. And of course, next Friday will quiet down. I am thinking  that the S&P will be above 1258 because 1258 is where the S&P started this year. They’re going to do their very best.

I’m letting you know, I’ll play it as it comes:

If we can get leadership..,

If we can get stocks breaking out on heavy volume…

If we can start to see some success in those moves…and then more and more names show up…I WILL BE DO EVERYTHING TO BE ALL OVER IT.

But as of right now, it’s one day up. I do expect higher prices at the end of the year. ..but I will need leadership.

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

HERE IS WHAT THEY ARE DOING WITH OUR MONEY…ENJOY!

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SOURCE: http://www.coburn.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?a=Files.Serve&File_id=b69a6ebd-7ebe-41b7-bb03-c25a5e194365

 

 

THE JAM INTO YEAR-END

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I have been sitting here and asking myself for a couple of weeks: “Where is the jam into the end of the year?” After all, we all know how life works in the market. At the end of every month, more at the end of every quarter…and especially at the end of the year, the markets somehow pop into those time frames. Of course, it is illegal to paint the tape. Yeah right!

Off of some very ugly action in past days where the financials continued to act like it is 08 all over again and where markets would open strong, only to sell off, today looks different. All the things that need to happen to juice the market…are happening early…and on another gap. Very simply, the euro is gapping up while the dollar is gapping down…unleashing another big gap to the upside in the market. Just about all the gains since the recent low on 11/25 have been on huge gaps on supposed good news. Hmmmm!

I have no idea if they sell today’s gap again. I just know the days are running out in the year to take the market up to the point where the S&P is at least not down for the year. My guess is that this one stays up but who the heck knows? My worries have not been about December because of the end of year action. My worries have been more about January…especially with the action in the financials. Regardless, I suspect this will continue to be what it has been most of the year, a very tough market to play as these gaps remain a pain in the rear.

 

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

12/19/2011: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/121918.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW…

Since the two big gap-up days on the European news, nothing has happened.

In the last week, I’ve been starting to tell you things that I haven’t told you in a while. That the market was acting very bearishly…and I’m worried…even though we’re in this area we call “seasonal strength.”

We can only go by precedent – which is never 100%. The last 10 out of 10 years, the market has been up from Veterans Day until the end of the year as well as 22 out of the past 24 years. I have to believe they are going to rally this into end of year…but so far, nothing doing.

No matter what, there’s been no leadership. And then last week,  a lot of things started to roll over and there was no relief from that today.

Typically in the last 8 days left in the year, they will paint the tape. But they ain’t painting nothing yet!

And they’re playing no favorites. Especially in the one area that I told you topped out first in February and was acting like it was ’08 all over again…the financials.

THE FINANCIALS CONTINUE TO BE BLUDGEONED. ABSOLUTELY BLUDGEONED.

As the market was up early – the financials kept leaking and leaking…acting horrid.

I thought this action would come in January. As stated right now, the market is not waiting.

  • The new low list, picking up markedly.
  • The new high list, ain’t much.

In the last week, the new high list has been some big drug companies, utilities, and tobacco. That’s it.

The dollar continues in its strength as the default currency. The Euro…acting like the New York Giants. Good if you’re visiting Europe from here. Bad for the markets.

I am still quite the worried person about January. We’ll see if the end of year rally does indeed come. 

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.