TRIANGLES AND SEASONALITY

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A few numbers on seasonality:

I have read and verified that the market has been up the past 10 years from Veteran’s day into the end of the year…as well, it has been up the past 22 of 24 years. I cannot ignore these numbers. The reason given is that the boys do everything possible to make their year. Looks like they are pretty good at it.

On top of that, markets are sitting in a very nice triangle pattern here. The midpoint is at about the 1255 S&P area. One good up day takes the market above the triangle. Of course, one bad down day takes you down below the triangle…but with seasonal strength, hoping for the upside. Of course, don’t blink as this remains one of the toughest market environments I have experienced. Resistance remains in the 1250-1280 S&P area…with the financials remaining an anchor while the semis continue to provide some wind.

If seasonality means anything…well, I had better shut up. Just don’t blink as this will remain a news-driven environment.

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

THE PAYOFFS AND CORRUPTION AT THE TOP NEVER ENDS

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Mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac received the biggest federal bailout of the financial crisis. And nearly $100 million of those tax dollars went to lucrative pay packages for top executives, filings show.

The top five executives at Fannie Mae received $33.3 million in 2009 and 2010, while the top five at Freddie Mac received $28.1 million. And each company has set pay targets of as much as $17 million for its top managers for 2011.

That’s a total of $95.4 million, which will essentially be coming from taxpayers, who have been keeping the mortgage finance giants alive with regular quarterly cash infusions since the Federal Home Finance Agency (FHFA) took control of the companies in September 2008.

Continued

Source: Fannie, Freddie executives score $100M payday post bailout – Yahoo! Finance

11/14/2011: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/111418.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW…

“…Reading Peter Schweizer’s new book ‘Throw Them All Out’….Our politicians wrote laws for themselves that they can trade on insider information. THEY PUT US INTO A 15 TRILLION DOLLAR DEFICIT AND THEY’RE LINING THE OWN POCKETS WITH ACTIVITY THAT IS ILLEGAL IN OUR WORLD, BUT NOT IN THEIRS…AND WE SIT THEIR LIKE A BUNCH OF PUPPETS…”

“….Light volume trading today, but there a couple things sticking out that you should know about…”

  1. The financials are still acting putrid…even though they’re off the lows. I don’t think we’re going to have a new bull market unless financials are really leading.
  2. Apple is the most over-owned stock in the market, by the retail market and the big mutual funds. Earnings and revenues are decelerating and they missed estimates for the first time that I can remember. Most importantly, it’s under distribution.

“…Even though we gapped up 250 points on Friday, I think there are still some issues that the market needs to work through in this area in order to go higher…”

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AND THEY WANT TO KNOW WHY BUSINESSES MAY NOT BE HIRING…

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A little chart on what small business owners have to deal with in order to comply with the new obabacare tax credit. when I first saw this, I thought it was a joke!
SOURCE: http://danieljmitchell.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/obamacare-tax-credit.jpg

SEEMS LIKE MF IS THE PROPER INITIALS FOR THIS COMPANY

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Some incredibly galling behavior on the part of MF Global as exposed by Reuters’ Matthew Goldstein:

It appears that 10 days ago, with speculation swirling that the Jon Corzine-led firm would soon file for bankruptcy, a good number of customers started to put in requests to pull their money from the New York-based outfit. But instead of simply wiring that money back to their customers, it seems MF Global tried to buy some time for itself by sending that money back via snail mail in the form of an old-fashioned check.

This proved to be hugely significant, as the checks have, in many cases, ultimately bounced, now that the company is bankrupt.

THOSE DARN CAPITALISTS!

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Occupy Oakland Protesters Deposit Funds At Wells Fargo After Bank Attacks

A group of Oakland anti-Wall Street protesters who blame large banks for the economic downturn have decided that one of those institutions is the best place to stash their money for now.

Protesters at an Occupy Oakland meeting Monday voted to deposit a $20,000 donation into a Wells Fargo account. The move comes just days after one of Wells Fargo’s branches was vandalized during a massive downtown demonstration.

CONTINUED

Source: http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com

11/09/2011: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/110918.mp3

“…I have been telling you that regardless of whether markets go up or down, it’s going to be a tough environment…”

“…the people who caused the debt problem should be not be the ones to fix it…”

“…around these levels 1250 to 1280, is a high...”

“…if we are to eventually to get above these highs, the market has some work to be done…”

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Debt Increased $203 Billion in Oct.–$650 for Every Man, Woman and Child in America

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The federal government’s debt increased by $203,368,715,583.63 in the month of October, according to the U.S. Treasury.

That equals about $650 per person for each of the 312,542,760 people the Census Bureau now estimates live in the United States.

At the end of September, the total national debt stood at $14,790,340,328,557.15, according to the Bureau of the Public Debt. By the end of October, it had risen to $14,993,709,044,140.78.

Continued

SOURCE: http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/debt-increased-203-billion-oct-650-every-man-woman-and-child-america

1250-1280 S&P MAY BE A WALL

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Take away all the noise. Take away the resignations in Europe. Take away the TARP. Take away the printing of money. Take everything away. The most important thing I am seeing right now is a potential wall being built at the 1250-1280 S&P area. Take a look at the vicious selling on 10/31 and 11/1 combined with today’s early action and you have nothing more than the potential for serious resistance shaping up at these levels. If that’s the case, I expect to see some tough sledding in the near term. Already, I am seeing some of the weaker areas shaping troublesome charts. Nonetheless, this market is going to remain a tough proposition on a daily basis. That has not changed.

 

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

11/08/2011: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/110818.mp3

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