JUST LETTING YOU KNOW…
One of day left of trading in the markets for 2011.
Well, yesterday I said on the show, “Man, maybe they’re not going to get the market up by the end of year (I’m using the S&P 500 as the market). No…whatever was lost on the S&P yesterday…almost got it back today. Almost got it back on the Dow. Not close on the Nasdaq or Nasdaq-100. So, take yesterday. We got a little bit of the opposite today.
I got a respectful email today that had to do with being either bullish or bearish. ”You’re bullish one day and you sound bearish the next day…”
I get a little bit weirded out when get an email like that because I have listened back at my shows for the past few months…
…And I have been succinct. I have been to the point. I have specifically told you that, “I don’t know” on numerous occasions for good reason. We had weeks and weeks and weeks where we had gone up 10% three days, down 10% the next four days. Up 12% four days, down 9% the next 3 days. A lot of the moves were on 300 point gaps on the upside and 300 point gaps to the down side. A lot of moves were based on “Europe being saved” and this, that and the other thing.
My stance has not changed for months. It’s very simple. I have committed very little capital to this market. Since we had that reactionary low, October 4th, we have drifted higher with wild swings. We are still below massive resistance that was carved out from the February to the May-June period. We have a bull phase going on in defensive issues: Foods, drugs, beverages, tobacco, utilities, household products, a few REITs, muni bond funds, discount and dollar stores, and I have to add oil pipelines to that. You have bear markets in: Everything commodity, including oils, steel, copper, aluminum, metals, mining, and construction. Semiconductors, though they’re off the lows. Financials, though they’re off the lows. And a few things are actually coming up the right side.
We have bear markets in Gold and Silver. We have little bullish markets in housing and housing-related names like Home Depot and Lowes. I’m seeing the XHB (Homebuilders SPDR ETF) coming up the right side…needs to break above resistance.
We have bear markets in past growth leaders Amazon, BIDU, Salesforce.com, Deckers (which got slammed again today), Herbalife, lululemon, Priceline, Ralph Lauren, Ulta Salon, Underarmor, VMware, and Wynn Resorts.
The growth leaders I have left on my list include Apple…in a six-month base. Alexion, but not really going anywhere. Chipotle…six-month base. DollarTree. Google. Hansen Natural holds the 50-day moving average today. Intuitive Surgical, a low volume name that actually moved above resistance the past couple of days. Mastercard which is slowly ascending above the 50-day. Panara. Visa (along with Mastercard).
And then you have some action names, but which I don’t include in my big leaders: Petsmart, Nike, O’Reiley Automotive, Ross Stores, Starbucks, GNC, Fastenal, and Amgen.
Cloud computing stocks in a bear market. Software stocks in a bear market. A lot of tech in a bear market.
Bear markets in foreign markets. They are woefully underperforming the U.S. Markets.
And that’s it. Nothing’s changed. It’s still the same, whether we have an up day today, or a down day yesterday. Yesterday on the down day, I told you what was bullish and what was bearish. Today, I’ll tell you what was bullish and what was bearish. I have no clue what the market’s going to be at the end of next year. I don’t know who the next president’s going to be. I don’t what’s going to happen in Europe. I don’t know what’s going to happen to our 15 trillion (going to 16 trillion) in debt.
I know what’s happening now.
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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.