So let’s talk about the employment numbers first. A few years ago,  I had the honor  to appear on Fox News Channel with Jack Welch, the CEO of General Electric. Today, he Tweeted something to the effect that  they played with employment numbers that came out today.

And he is getting a lot of gruff. People are calling him crazy. He’s getting cursed out. For the past year or two, I have been telling you that the employment figures are a scam. Three months ago, and getting louder by the week, I told you – by the election – the employment rate will be under 8%. And it will be under 8% because they will politicize the number. Why? Because the Republicans have been talking about the past 43 months above 8%. So it’s incumbent upon the people in power to get it  below 8%.

Job well done.

How did I know they would get it below 8%? Because this was brought to you by the same people who have brought you $16 trillion in debt. Brought to you by people that are a bunch of crony paying, lobbyist paying political hacks. This is brought to by people who want their power. And the only way that they can keep their power is to convince you that they will do good for your life. And because of them, everything’s going to be a-ok.

So, here is my take. The number’s a lie. The number’s a scam. The number’s a sham. The number is a fraud.

They played with the numbers to move them under 8%. It’s as simple as that. How do I know?

For anybody in their right mind to believe that unemployment rate went from 8.3% to 7.8% over the past 60 days while GDP went south – well you’re not in your right mind.

For anyone in their right mind to believe that in past 30 days that it went from 8.1 to 7.8% — you’re not in your right mind.

Let me explain to you how things work at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

It’s all estimates!

There’s no numbers. There’s nothing.

They do surveys. They try to tell you they know how many people have jobs and how many don’t by polling 50,000 people. Remember, I told you that I’ve been emailed the Bureau of Labor Statistics? And I haven’t gotten an answer?

I got one today.

As you know, one of my pet peeves has been that the Labor Participation Number (how many people in the workforce) has crashed in the past four years. It topped in 2000, sat around and then right around 2009, crashed and it stayed crashing…to this day!

And why does this happen? You tell me. Oh, of course, some people have left the workforce, no doubt. But they use that they number to make the unemployment number look lower.

Do you know where our unemployment rate would be right now if we had the same number of people  in the workforce at the start of the Obama Administration?


So I emailed the BLS over the past few months and I never got an answer. I basically emailed, “Can I have that list of people who left the workforce?” It’s a simple question. Just give me that list. I have every right now to know.

Well they finally emailed me back today.

Thank for your inquiry. The Bureau of Labor Statistics does not maintain a list of people that have left the workforce.

So what good are their numbers? Well you tell me.

Hilda Solis is the Labor Secretary. She said on TV today that the numbers are just estimates. Here is a chart of the participation rate. You can see a Mount Everest with a crash over the past four years.

I don’t make this up. Everybody else is talking theory. We don’t talk theory. We talk numbers.

So they’re trying to tell me that in the past month, the number of unemployed people dropped by 456,000 and the total number of people employed went up 873,000 people. That’s what they’re trying to tell me.

It’s a lie. Nobody can convince me of anything else. It is politicized. It is just like Ben Bernanke, 50 days before an election saying, We don’t act on politics, as he decided for QE3 — an unlimited, unending amount of printing of money to bubble up assets.

There’s an agenda.  They’re trying to solidify their power. But they’re crooked.

The employment picture isn’t any better. If you’re unemployed, I be PO’d right now, I’d be going to the BLS Department’s building and having sign saying…who are you trying to kid?

I knew it in advance. It was a gimme. And I was watching people blasting others who are unconvinced.

Why not be skeptical of a government that’s brought us to $16 trillion debt,  the next 6 years of our taxpayer dollars already spent. Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid…on their way to bankruptcy. Why do we have to believe what they tell us?

How is it that we’re under 8% all of a sudden? As GDP has floundered.

You know I’d like to be sarcastic. I would like to make light of this. But this is some serious stuff. This is fraud.


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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.