1/20 MORNING NOTES

CHINA lowered rates. There will be more. Unfortunately, this is the modus operandi of just about all countries. Try and stanch the bleeding instead of just letting the markets do their thing. Chinese ADRs and ETFs making a higher low off this news. Need to see if this sticks as we need some better themes.

Speaking of that, do notice the fed has still not done anything. We thought there was a chance all their talk is just jawboning the market to do their bidding. The problem for the market right now is that the bond market is tightening so they are way behind. Powell is praying yields come back down. We weep that the president is looking to Powell, one of the main culprits of the inflation, to be the guy to fix the inflation problem. The nerve of these people who think they can control the markets and play God with them as well as control inflation.

Bad close yesterday. Gap em back up today. The move by China looks to have helped. Bearishness has really picked up. That is potential good news. Would not be surprised by a counter-trend. Just don’t blink! We are open to all outcomes as we have no bias as to what the market decides to do. Would love to see some evidence that the worst is at hand.

Put GOLD and GOLD STOCKS on your watch list. Have not been able to say this in quite a while. The last time was just another tease.

Cannot be thrilled by the reaction to JPM, GS, BLK earnings. Best not see more of these types of reactions as we move deeper into earnings season.

The SEMIS (SOX) joined the ugly parade the past 2 days. The SOX fell below December and early January’s lows. Needs a save soon. ASML was up $24 on earnings yesterday and finished down. It is gapping up over $20 this morning.

OIL PRICES remain stretched, extended and overbought but also persistent in moving higher. The cost of almost everything goes up if oil prices keep going up. We suspect we could get some relief soon but that would not change the trend.

Bond yields pretty much the same thought. Have you noticed HOUSING stocks over the past 2 weeks? They are logically being smacked off of the higher mortgage rates. This, combined with the problem of affordability and we worry about the housing market going forward.

The bombed out growth stocks were actually better yesterday until the late selling. We would not be surprised if they finally start to outperform a bit in here but they are bombed out so much, a bounce/rally would not change trend. The best thing to happen would be to bounce and retest a few times over a few weeks. If yields can pull back, we should get them doing better.

Importantly, the NASDAQ fell deeper below the LONGER TERM 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE YESTERDAY. Do not think for a second institutions do not see that. ONLY BAD THINGS HAPPEN IF BELOW THE 200 DAY.

AAPL closed below the 50 day moving average yesterday, the last of the biggies to break that important level. But it is just below. 1 or 2 good days gets it back above. The good news is that everyone has noticed it.  A move back above would just keep it in this range pre-earnings. All other biggies are below the 50 day with quite a few deep into their bear phase, below the 200 day.