07/16/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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https://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/071618.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

We had a good day on Friday. Today, there was a little pullback. I think the main stance continues to be: Choppy, Choppy, Choppy, Choppy.

Bullish Monday, bearish Tuesday. I think the market’s going to be all over the map. Just remember that we’re in the midst of earnings season. Just put your seat belts on. There will be stocks gapping to the upside and stocks gapping to the downside and our job is to stay in gear with them. Why? Because typically, stocks that react well off of earnings reports vs. stocks that don’t will do better in the coming quarter. I’m not making that up. That’s how it works.

On Friday, there was very good reaction to a couple Financials, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo. I have to tell you that today, JP Morgan got hit. Wells Fargo was up a smidge. So nothing is written in stone. Take your time. Recognize that this is not a bull market. But also recognize that this is not what I’d call a big bear market, except in some areas.

I continue avoid anything Commodities, though they’re bouncing hear a little bit. We’re getting a little bit of money flowing into the oils here. But overall, I don’t think it’s the place to be.

The strongest group has been housing. It probably needs to pull in a little bit.

We’re getting a decent bid Agriculture because of the prices shooting up. If you look at the chart of AGU, CF, and MON, that’ll give a little bit of indication on what’s happening out there with those areas. Whether or not it continues —  I don’t know. Just remember, you’re dealing with a commodity and that can change suddenly. But I can tell you right now, those suckers are on a run.

Facebook Cup and Handle?

Last week I received probably 50 to 100 emails on Facebook asking, “Gary is that a Cup and Handle?” I answered all of them the same way. Not to my eye. But if Facebook can break about 32 or 33, it’ll be bullish near-term. But also mentioned to everyone of those emails, “Dudes, just look at valuations. You know what I think there. I know valuations can get out of whack, but I’m sorry, we’re not in a bubble like 1999. We should not have a $70 billion market cap with $4 billion in revenue and a slowing business. And, of course, we’ll see if their slowing in the next few quarters. Anyway, Facebook was down 2 and change. So if some of you were thinking it’s a good pattern, it’s rolling over here. I would just stay away from and for earnings to come out to get an understanding.

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.