Like a Frightened Turtle

The bottom line today is that the market remains in corrective phase here. Most sectors are in downtrends and there is a clear loss of leadership.

Commodity stocks are acting like a south end of a north bound mule.

Most other sectors are in bad shape.

And today I must tell you…it wasn’t the biggest down day. But some of the things were down are things we down want to be down.

Remember what we think is important to watch:

  • Financials have been bearish, notwithstanding a bounce.
  • Semiconductors have been in a bear, notwithstanding a little bounce here in the last few days.
  • Retail has been breaking down badly recently and they were smacking them good today. That is not good news for the markets. Markets need leadership out of the leadership areas and the leadership indices. It’s just not there yet.
  • Growth leaders.

Even if we got a Follow-Through Day (FTD) tomorrow, I’m hard pressed to figure out what I would buy. There are a few leading names that I like. But I have to call into question how invested I would get.


Here’s an example:

Under Armor (UA) had a very nice flat base breakout recently. It was down 5 today. Right back tucking its head in like a frightened turtle. That shouldn’t happen in good market.

Other breakouts are failing miserably. So, again, we are in corrective mode. If the lows of recent of recent weeks are broken, then we’ll have another big leg down.

The best news I can give you is that I do believe that those lows will hold for now to a few weeks from now. We’ll see what happens.

I want to make sure you understand that it’s still tough sledding out there and conviction and trust is still low. More and more names are not working. Fewer and fewer stocks are working.

Dire Straits

Greece is having elections on Saturday. I have no clue what is going to happen. But I do now that they remain in dire straits. I told you 18 months ago, a year ago, six months ago and I’m going to tell you today: I think ultimately Greece has to leave the EU and go back to the drachma and go out on their own.

Spain, which is much bigger than Greece. I’m not sure what will happen, but I do know they have 25% unemployment and 50% unemployment for young people. Housing has been obliterated. Cities are empty.

Italy is not in great shape…and I can go on.

More downgrades today. I believe Spain was downgraded by Moody’s. A saw a couple others. Gee, now the ratings services are telling us things are not good. Duh!

Just stay away from foreign markets. I have I have told you on my radio show, they were leading down. Now we’ll see how bad it gets. 


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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.